World Cup: Japan won against Saudi and Oman drew Australia

 Iran and South Korea have clinched a spot in Qatar. UAE and Iraq fight over the third spot and playoff, where Iraq host UAE in the next match. Iraq need to win that plus that UAE lose points in their last match against Sout Korea.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Iran	8	22	25.7	(25-26)	< 1%	34%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
South Korea	8	20	23.8	(23-26)	< 1%	66%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United Arab Emirates	8	9	10.3	(9-12)	62%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	9%	4%	4%
Iraq	8	5	8.87	(8-11)	30%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	12%	6%	6%
Lebanon	8	6	7.68	(6-9)	8%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Syria	8	2	4.52	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Oman and Australia drew, which means Oman are out and Australia are less likely to reach any of the two direct spots. They probably need to win both against Japan (home) and Saudi (away). Japan won against Saudi, so they can clinch qualification with a win against Australia (away) or a draw followed by a point against Vietnam (home).

Most interesting matches in March

Saudi Arabia vs Australia in Group B

- Saudi Arabia have 78% if  they lose; 100% otherwise.

- Australia have 72.2% if they win; 44.9% if draw; 41.9% if lose.

- Japan have 98.5% if Saudi Arabia win; 95.6% if draw; 87.8% if Australia win.

Australia vs Japan in Group B

- Japan have 100% if they win; 99% if draw; 85.3% if lose.

- Saudi Arabia have 100% if Japan win; 89.7% if draw; 84.6% if Australia win.

- Australia have 69.1% if they win; 50.3% if draw; 40.3% if lose.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Japan	8	18	21.8	(21-24)	12%	43%	46%	12%	10%	5%	93%
Saudi Arabia	8	19	21.7	(20-23)	14%	43%	43%	14%	9%	4%	91%
Australia	8	15	18.1	(16-19)	75%	14%	11%	75%	60%	30%	55%
Oman	8	8	11.1	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
China	8	5	7.29	(6-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Vietnam	8	3	4.73	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%