World Cup: South America

Ecuador will most likely (99%) finish top and go to Qatar; they need another point to be certain that they're going to Qatar. They play Paraguay (away) and Argentina (home). The last direct spot are likely between Uruguay and Peru and much of that will be decided when they play in March.

Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	15	39	46.3	(45-48)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	15	35	39.5	(38-41)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Ecuador	16	25	27.4	(26-29)	< 1%	99%	< 1%	99%
Uruguay	16	22	25.7	(25-28)	15%	79%	1%	80%
Peru	16	21	23.4	(22-24)	55%	20%	5%	24%
Colombia	16	17	20.9	(20-23)	15%	< 1%	1%	1%
Chile	16	19	20.6	(19-22)	13%	2%	1%	3%
Bolivia	16	15	15.6	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Paraguay	16	13	15.5	(14-17)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Venezuela	16	10	12	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most interesting matches

Uruguay vs Peru in Group A

- Uruguay have 99% if they win; 80.9% if draw; 38.7% if lose.

- Peru have 94.2% if they win; 57.7% if draw; 33.7% if lose.

Peru vs Paraguay in Group A

- Peru have 62.5% if they win; 37% if draw; 24.5% if lose.

- Colombia have 18% if Paraguay win; 12.4% if draw; 0.7% if Peru win.

- Chile have 15.5% if Paraguay win; 12.7% if draw; 3.9% if Peru win.