PL: Newcastle increase their chaances for new contract

Newcastle with an important against Brentford now have a predicted 78% (+18) chance to renew their contract. Brentford, on the other hand, are in trouble, trailing more than two points behind Newcastle and Everton in expected points, and are relegated in 41% (+14) of simulations. Watford took a point at Old Trafford, increasing their chances from 11% to 14%. Man United reduced their chances for CL from 39% to 29%.

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.2 more than expected
Southampton: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.77%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	99.31%
Sixth team	>99.99%	89%	2.1%
Seventh team	91%	8%	2.5%
Eighth team	12%	6%	2.6%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
66	Man City	89.8	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
60	Liverpool	84.3	+60	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.94%	99.66%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	98.4%
45	Arsenal	67.3	+17	< 1%	97.8%	92%	80%	57%	< 1%	6%	35%	57%
47	Man United	64.4	+14	< 1%	95.6%	85%	62%	26%	< 1%	12%	54%	29%
42	Tottenham	62.3	+6	< 1%	85%	65%	37%	13%	< 1%	20%	51%	13%
40	Wolves	58.6	+5	< 1%	59%	30%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	30%	26%	2.8%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	51%	26%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	23%	23%	10%
35	Southampton	49.9	-6	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.6%	< 1%
27	Leicester	48.8	-5	< 1%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	17%	< 1%
33	Brighton	47.5	-9	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Aston Villa	46.9	-6	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Crystal Palace	42.9	-5	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
23	Leeds	40.0	-29	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	38.8	-11	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	38.4	-18	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
25	Newcastle	38.3	-25	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Brentford	36.0	-24	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Watford	30.4	-33	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	28.6	-49	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	53%	23%	25%	Wolves
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Leicester
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Leeds
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Southampton
Newcastle	41%	24%	34%	Brighton
Wolves	56%	22%	22%	Crystal Palace
Burnley	23%	22%	54%	Chelsea
Norwich	45%	24%	31%	Brentford
Liverpool	70%	17%	13%	West Ham
Watford	25%	23%	52%	Arsenal
Man City	65%	19%	16%	Man United
Tottenham	60%	21%	19%	Everton