PL: Arsenal leading the CL race with a late winner

 

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Burnley: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.80%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.2%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	99.20%
Sixth team	>99.99%	88%	2.1%
Seventh team	90%	9%	2.3%
Eighth team	12%	6%	2.3%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	88.9	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
60	Liverpool	84.3	+60	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.68%	97.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	98.1%
45	Arsenal	67.3	+17	< 1%	98.0%	93%	81%	53%	< 1%	6%	39%	53%
46	Man United	65.8	+15	< 1%	97.7%	91%	75%	37%	< 1%	7%	51%	39%
39	Tottenham	60.6	+2	< 1%	75%	51%	23%	7%	< 1%	24%	45%	7%
40	Wolves	58.6	+5	< 1%	62%	33%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	30%	29%	2.5%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	54%	28%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	23%	25%	10%
33	Brighton	49.2	-6	< 1%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	1.2%	< 1%
32	Southampton	48.9	-7	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.5%	< 1%
27	Leicester	48.8	-5	< 1%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	21%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	45.0	-9	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	43.7	-4	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
23	Leeds	41.5	-24	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	39.1	-18	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Burnley	38.7	-12	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Brentford	37.6	-21	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	36.5	-28	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Watford	29.8	-34	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.4	-48	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Southampton	60%	21%	20%	Norwich
Leeds	41%	24%	35%	Tottenham
Man United	75%	15%	10%	Watford
Brighton	49%	23%	28%	Aston Villa
Brentford	47%	24%	29%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	53%	23%	25%	Burnley
Everton	18%	20%	62%	Man City
West Ham	53%	23%	25%	Wolves
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Leicester