PL: Newcastle renew the contract in 62% of simulations

 

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Southampton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.79%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.5%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.95%	99.10%
Sixth team	>99.99%	88%	2.5%
Seventh team	90%	9%	2.3%
Eighth team	12%	5%	1.8%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	91.2	+64	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
54	Liverpool	83.4	+59	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
47	Chelsea	74.9	+44	< 1%	99.98%	99.89%	99.49%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	97.9%
39	Arsenal	65.6	+16	< 1%	95%	88%	75%	51%	< 1%	8%	35%	51%
40	Man United	63.4	+13	< 1%	91%	80%	60%	29%	< 1%	12%	47%	32%
36	Tottenham	59.6	+1	< 1%	67%	46%	25%	9%	< 1%	21%	38%	9%
38	West Ham	58.5	+12	< 1%	64%	42%	21%	7%	< 1%	20%	32%	15%
37	Wolves	58.2	+4	< 1%	57%	35%	17%	5%	< 1%	23%	28%	5%
33	Brighton	51.8	-2	< 1%	13%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	5%	< 1%
27	Leicester	49.8	-4	< 1%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	21%	< 1%
29	Southampton	47.6	-8	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.3%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	47.0	-6	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	43.1	-22	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	43.0	-7	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
22	Everton	40.1	-17	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
24	Brentford	38.2	-21	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Newcastle	36.2	-29	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	34.9	-17	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.7	-48	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	29.0	-33	88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	64%	20%	17%	Brighton
West Ham	64%	20%	17%	Newcastle
Arsenal	70%	17%	13%	Brentford
Aston Villa	62%	20%	18%	Watford
Liverpool	84%	10%	5%	Norwich
Southampton	50%	23%	27%	Everton
Brighton	56%	22%	22%	Burnley
Crystal Palace	26%	23%	51%	Chelsea
Man City	72%	16%	12%	Tottenham
Leeds	33%	24%	42%	Man United
Wolves	50%	23%	27%	Leicester