PL: Brentford five straight losses

Brentford have five straight losses and although they have met strong teams, theor probability for regulation has increased from 5% to 18%. Watford and Everton have even weaker results recently. Everton have only taken one point and regulation probability increased from 4% to 19%. Likewise Watford have 1 point in the last five matches (4.5 less than expected) and regulation probability has increased from 60% to 81%.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
Southampton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Watford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Brentford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.80%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.4%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.94%	98.8%
Sixth team	>99.99%	89%	2.5%
Seventh team	91%	10%	2.5%
Eighth team	12%	5%	1.6%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
60	Man City	90.5	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
51	Liverpool	82.4	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.93%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
47	Chelsea	74.9	+44	< 1%	99.98%	99.87%	99.31%	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	97.2%
39	Arsenal	65.6	+16	< 1%	95.1%	87%	71%	45%	< 1%	9%	41%	45%
39	Man United	64.6	+14	< 1%	94%	85%	65%	35%	< 1%	11%	46%	37%
36	Tottenham	61.4	+4	< 1%	79%	59%	34%	14%	< 1%	20%	46%	14%
37	West Ham	58.7	+11	< 1%	66%	41%	19%	6%	< 1%	23%	32%	14%
34	Wolves	56.1	+2	< 1%	40%	20%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	21%	17%	2.1%
26	Leicester	50.4	-4	< 1%	9%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	21%	< 1%
30	Brighton	50.2	-4	< 1%	9%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.9%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	48.3	-6	< 1%	4.3%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	1.3%	< 1%
28	Southampton	47.2	-9	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	2.3%	< 1%
23	Leeds	44.3	-19	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	Crystal Palace	43.2	-7	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Everton	38.7	-20	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
23	Brentford	38.7	-21	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	35.7	-17	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Newcastle	34.7	-30	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Watford	30.3	-32	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	30.2	-45	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	67%	19%	15%	Southampton
Everton	46%	24%	30%	Leeds
Watford	36%	24%	40%	Brighton
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Crystal Palace
Norwich	13%	17%	70%	Man City
Newcastle	41%	24%	34%	Aston Villa
Tottenham	53%	23%	24%	Wolves
Burnley	18%	20%	62%	Liverpool
Leicester	44%	24%	32%	West Ham
Man United	64%	20%	17%	Brighton