PL: Tottenham upset City at Etihad

Tottenham upset Man City at Etihad and increase their top-4 chances from 9% to 16%, while City's title chances decreased from 88% to  78%.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.78%
Fifth team	100%	99.99%	1.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	85%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	99.42%
Sixth team	>99.99%	89%	2.2%
Seventh team	91%	9%	2.6%
Eighth team	13%	6%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	88.9	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
57	Liverpool	83.8	+59	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.74%	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	98.6%
42	Arsenal	66.3	+17	< 1%	96.3%	90%	77%	53%	< 1%	7%	36%	52%
40	Man United	63.4	+13	< 1%	92%	79%	56%	25%	< 1%	14%	50%	28%
39	Tottenham	62.0	+3	< 1%	83%	64%	39%	16%	< 1%	19%	49%	16%
37	Wolves	58.2	+4	< 1%	57%	32%	14%	4.2%	< 1%	26%	27%	4.2%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	54%	29%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	22%	25%	12%
33	Brighton	49.9	-5	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	2.0%	< 1%
27	Leicester	49.8	-4	< 1%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	22%	< 1%
32	Southampton	48.9	-7	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.6%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	45.0	-9	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	43.1	-22	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	42.0	-7	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
22	Everton	39.1	-18	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
24	Brentford	37.6	-21	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	37.1	-13	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	36.5	-28	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Watford	31.2	-31	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.4	-48	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	64%	20%	17%	Brighton
Leeds	33%	24%	42%	Man United
Wolves	50%	23%	27%	Leicester