PL: United in the CL race

The fourth place is taken by Arsenal (45%) or Man United (38%) in >80% and the CL race start to look like a two-horse race. On average they take 66.3 and 65.8 points in the simulations and the dark horse, Tottenham, a trailing a few points behind with 62.0 points on average.

 

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.81%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	1.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.96%	99.17%
Sixth team	>99.99%	88%	2.0%
Seventh team	91%	8%	2.5%
Eighth team	12%	6%	2.9%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	88.9	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
57	Liverpool	83.8	+59	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.97%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.93%	99.60%	97.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	98.0%
42	Arsenal	66.3	+17	< 1%	95.8%	88%	72%	45%	< 1%	9%	42%	45%
46	Man United	65.8	+15	< 1%	97.2%	89%	71%	38%	< 1%	9%	48%	40%
39	Tottenham	62.0	+3	< 1%	81%	59%	32%	13%	< 1%	22%	47%	13%
40	Wolves	59.4	+5	< 1%	65%	36%	15%	4.4%	< 1%	30%	30%	4.4%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	50%	25%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	22%	22%	11%
33	Brighton	49.2	-6	< 1%	3.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Southampton	48.9	-7	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	2.3%	< 1%
27	Leicester	48.8	-5	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	20%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	45.0	-9	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	42.0	-7	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
23	Leeds	41.9	-23	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	39.1	-18	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
24	Brentford	37.6	-21	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	37.0	-13	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	36.5	-28	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Watford	31.3	-31	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.4	-48	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Burnley	35%	24%	40%	Tottenham
Watford	40%	24%	36%	Crystal Palace
Liverpool	76%	15%	9%	Leeds
Arsenal	59%	21%	20%	Wolves