PL: Newcastle hottest team in the league

Newcastle won a important match against Brighton and have now taken 13 points in the last 5 matches (6 more than expected).

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.9 more than expected
Southampton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Norwich: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.7%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	90%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	91%	3%
Seventh team	92%	8%	3%
Eighth team	12%	4%	2%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
69	Man City	90.5	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
63	Liverpool	85.4	+60	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
53	Chelsea	77.5	+48	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.9%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.2%
48	Arsenal	69.1	+18	< 1%	99.3%	97%	89%	69%	< 1%	3%	28%	69%
47	Man United	63.9	+12	< 1%	96%	83%	54%	17%	< 1%	13%	62%	20%
45	Tottenham	63.0	+10	< 1%	91%	73%	43%	13%	< 1%	19%	59%	13%
42	West Ham	58.5	+12	< 1%	67%	33%	12%	2%	< 1%	30%	28%	10%
40	Wolves	55.8	+2	< 1%	32%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	10%	< 1%
33	Leicester	51.3	-3	< 1%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	17%	< 1%
35	Southampton	49.9	-7	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3%	4%	< 1%
33	Aston Villa	47.7	-3	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Brighton	45.3	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Crystal Palace	45.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	< 1%
28	Newcastle	40.9	-23	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	37.7	-31	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	37.6	-15	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	Brentford	37.3	-22	25%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	37.0	-23	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	< 1%
18	Watford	29.2	-34	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	26.8	-51	98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Wolves	65%	18%	16%	Watford
Norwich	18%	20%	62%	Chelsea
Southampton	53%	23%	24%	Newcastle
Leeds	45%	24%	31%	Aston Villa
Brighton	19%	21%	60%	Liverpool
Brentford	40%	25%	35%	Burnley
Man United	58%	22%	20%	Tottenham