World Cup: UAE or Iraq will play Australia in playoff

 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
South Korea	9	23	25.1	(24-26)	< 1%	32%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Iran	9	22	24.6	(25-25)	< 1%	68%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United Arab Emirates	9	9	9.72	(9-10)	62%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Iraq	9	8	9.59	(8-11)	38%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	14%	4%	4%
Lebanon	9	6	6.26	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Syria	9	5	6.18	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

UAE and Iraq fight over the playoff spot while Lebanon only have a mathematical chance.

United Arab Emirates clinched playoff spot if they beat South Korea (home) or if they draw and Iraq don't win against Syria. If they lose and Iraq don't win they have good chances (>95%, see below).

United Arab Emirates - South Korea
Home	Draw	Away
100%	55%	54%	Syr - Ira
100%	100%	99.1%	99.4%	Home
100%	100%	97.4%	98.4%	0-0
100%	100%	95.1%	96.9%	1-1
100%	100%	94%	96.4%	2-2
100%	100%	95%	97%	3-3
100%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	Away

 

Iraq clinch qualification if they beat Syria and UAE don't win against South Korea.

United Arab Emirates - South Korea
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	45%	46%	Syr - Ira
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	1.1%	0-0
< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	2.5%	1-1
< 1%	< 1%	5%	3.0%	2-2
< 1%	< 1%	5%	3%	3-3
< 1%	100%	100%	83%	Away

 

Lebanon clinch qualification if Iraq don't win against Syria - and they catch up three points and five goals against UAE,

United Arab Emirates - South Korea
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	0-4	1-5
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	1.0%	Syr - Ira
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	4%	2%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	4%	2%	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Japan	9	21	23.6	(24-24)	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Saudi Arabia	9	20	21.3	(20-23)	< 1%	94%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Australia	9	15	16.5	(15-18)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	78%	28%	28%
Oman	9	11	12.8	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
China	9	6	6.96	(6-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Vietnam	9	3	3.3	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Japan and Saudi clinched qualification in Group B while Australia will play playoff.