PL: Advantage Tottenham (64%) in the CL race

Advantage Tottenham in CL race after Man U and Arsenal lost yesterday. Tottenham get on average 1.7 more points than Arsenal in the simulations. If Man United win remaining matches, they finish on 72 points which suffices for CL in 80% of the simulations. West Ham are more likely to win all remaining matches, yet their main path to CL goes via a winning EL (12%). Leicester's main path to Europe also goes via winning a continental title (ECL,  20%), while Crystal Palace's chance for Europe goes via winning the FA cup (5%).

 

Hot Teams
Crystal Palace: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Man United: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Norwich: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
 

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Man City	90.5	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	63%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
72	Liverpool	88.6	+63	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
62	Chelsea	78.2	+49	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.77%
57	Tottenham	68.5	+22	< 1%	99.93%	99.02%	94%	64%	< 1%	1.1%	35%	64%
54	Arsenal	66.8	+13	< 1%	99.23%	94%	78%	32%	< 1%	5%	61%	32%
51	Man United	61.8	+9	< 1%	91%	64%	18%	2.8%	< 1%	27%	61%	2.8%
48	West Ham	59.6	+11	< 1%	77%	36%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	36%	30%	13%
49	Wolves	56.3	+3	< 1%	25%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	6%	< 1%
37	Leicester	52.4	-2	< 1%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	21%	< 1%
37	Crystal Palace	47.7	+3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%
36	Aston Villa	45.3	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Brighton	44.1	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	Southampton	43.9	-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Newcastle	42.0	-23	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Brentford	41.2	-14	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	Leeds	40.3	-30	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	Everton	36.5	-24	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Burnley	35.8	-19	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Watford	29.1	-37	96.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Norwich	25.0	-52	99.86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

	Tottenham			Arsenal			West Ham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	1.3%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	3.7%	2.4%	99.9%	1.6%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	5%	1.7%	99.7%	2.6%	1.0%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	12%	7%	98.9%	6%	3.3%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	19%	7%	95.4%	10%	3.7%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	80%
71	27%	8%	93%	15%	5%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	40%	13%	86%	23%	9%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%	< 1%	56%
69	51%	11%	75%	32%	8%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	2.1%	1.4%	40%
68	62%	11%	66%	42%	10%	39%	1.2%	< 1%	39%	3.2%	1.1%	29%
67	73%	12%	51%	54%	12%	24%	3.0%	1.8%	27%	8%	4.5%	15%
66	82%	8%	35%	64%	10%	15%	5%	2.2%	19%	13%	5%	7%
65	88%	7%	23%	74%	10%	7%	8%	3.2%	15%	19%	6%	3.7%
64	94%	5%	12%	82%	9%	2.8%	15%	6%	13%	31%	12%	< 1%
63	96.4%	2.9%	6%	88%	6%	< 1%	21%	6%	12%	42%	11%	< 1%
62	98.3%	1.8%	2%	93%	4.7%	< 1%	29%	8%	12%	53%	11%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brentford vs West Ham (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	31%	38%	53%
Man United	71%	67%	57%
Arsenal	95.5%	94%	92%
Man United vs Norwich (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	69%	52%	43%
West Ham	40%	50%	55%
Wolves	4.6%	8%	11%
West Ham vs Burnley (3.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	49%	34%	28%
Man United	60%	69%	74%
Arsenal	93%	95.0%	95.8%

	Arsenal			Man United			Tottenham			West Ham			Leicester			Wolves			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	1.6%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	2.4%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	2.6%	1.0%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	5%	1.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	6%	3.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	10%	3.7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	19%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	15%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	27%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	23%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	40%	13%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	32%	8%	99.96%	2.1%	1.4%	99.7%	51%	11%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	42%	10%	99.90%	3.2%	1.1%	99.2%	62%	11%	99.97%	1.2%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	54%	12%	99.6%	8%	4.5%	98.2%	73%	12%	99.91%	3.0%	1.8%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	64%	10%	98.9%	13%	5%	96.4%	82%	8%	99.6%	5%	2.2%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	74%	10%	97.6%	19%	6%	94%	88%	7%	99.0%	8%	3.2%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	89%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	82%	9%	93%	31%	12%	89%	94%	5%	97.5%	15%	6%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	88%	6%	88%	42%	11%	82%	96.4%	2.9%	94%	21%	6%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	70%	1.3%	< 1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	93%	4.7%	78%	53%	11%	73%	98.3%	1.8%	88%	29%	8%	65%	1.1%	< 1%	55%	3.9%	2.6%	43%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	96.3%	3.3%	63%	66%	14%	60%	99.33%	1.1%	78%	40%	11%	52%	2.0%	< 1%	43%	8%	4.4%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	57%
60	98.1%	1.8%	48%	76%	10%	48%	99.74%	< 1%	63%	50%	10%	39%	3.5%	1.5%	33%	12%	3.7%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs West Ham (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	68%	75%	87%
Wolves	37%	32%	25%
West Ham vs Burnley (3.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	84%	71%	63%
Wolves	27%	35%	40%
Man United vs Norwich (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	94%	85%	78%
Wolves	29%	34%	37%

	West Ham			Man United			Wolves			Arsenal			Leicester			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
68	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	3.2%	1.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	42%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	62%	11%	100%
67	3.0%	1.8%	99.9%	8%	4.5%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	54%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	73%	12%	>99.99%
66	5%	2.2%	99.9%	13%	5%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	64%	10%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	82%	8%	>99.99%
65	8%	3.2%	99.8%	19%	6%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	74%	10%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	88%	7%	99.98%
64	15%	6%	99.4%	31%	12%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	82%	9%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	94%	5%	99.9%
63	21%	6%	98.7%	42%	11%	99.1%	1.3%	< 1%	94%	88%	6%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	96.4%	2.9%	99.8%
62	29%	8%	97.8%	53%	11%	98.1%	3.9%	2.6%	88%	93%	4.7%	98.3%	1.1%	< 1%	90%	98.3%	1.8%	99.3%
61	40%	11%	95.3%	66%	14%	95.8%	8%	4.4%	78%	96.3%	3.3%	96%	2.0%	< 1%	81%	99.33%	1.1%	98%
60	50%	10%	91%	76%	10%	92%	12%	3.7%	68%	98.1%	1.8%	92%	3.5%	1.5%	70%	99.74%	< 1%	95%
59	61%	11%	86%	84%	8%	86%	23%	11%	54%	99.14%	1.1%	84%	7%	3.0%	59%	99.92%	< 1%	91%
58	71%	11%	75%	91%	7%	75%	35%	12%	41%	99.68%	< 1%	71%	10%	3.5%	47%	99.99%	< 1%	79%
57	80%	8%	63%	95.2%	3.9%	63%	45%	10%	31%	99.89%	< 1%	58%	15%	5%	37%	100%	< 1%	70%
56	87%	7%	51%	97.6%	2.4%	48%	62%	17%	21%	99.97%	< 1%	41%	22%	7%	30%	100%	< 1%	-
55	92%	5%	37%	99.13%	1.5%	32%	74%	13%	15%	>99.99%	< 1%	27%	30%	8%	25%	100%	< 1%	-
54	95.5%	3.3%	26%	99.68%	< 1%	20%	83%	8%	10%	100%	< 1%	-	39%	9%	23%	100%	< 1%	-
53	97.7%	2.2%	19%	99.89%	< 1%	12%	92%	9%	7%	100%	< 1%	-	49%	10%	21%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Norwich vs Burnley (5.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	42%	51%	68%
Everton	66%	61%	52%
Leeds	94%	92%	89%
West Ham vs Burnley (3.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	48%	57%	73%
Everton	63%	58%	50%
Leeds	93%	91%	88%
Watford vs Brentford (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brentford	93%	96.1%	99.0%
Watford	6%	2.0%	1.1%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Leeds			Brentford			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
37	1.6%	< 1%	66%	43%	9%	76%	49%	11%	73%	89%	9%	81%	93%	7%	85%	96.3%	3.8%	82%
36	3.1%	1.5%	43%	53%	10%	60%	60%	11%	57%	94%	5%	68%	96.4%	3.6%	73%	98.3%	2.1%	68%
35	5%	2.1%	27%	62%	9%	44%	72%	12%	42%	97.2%	3.1%	53%	98.4%	2.0%	57%	99.65%	1.3%	48%
34	10%	4.7%	12%	71%	9%	28%	81%	9%	29%	99.36%	2.1%	38%	99.67%	1.2%	38%	100%	< 1%	32%
33	15%	5%	4.8%	80%	8%	16%	88%	7%	17%	100%	< 1%	24%	100%	< 1%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
32	22%	7%	1.6%	86%	6%	8%	94%	6%	9%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	33%	11%	< 1%	91%	5%	3.0%	97.1%	3.1%	4%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	44%	10%	< 1%	95%	3.7%	< 1%	98.8%	1.6%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	55%	11%	< 1%	97.1%	2.3%	< 1%	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	68%	13%	< 1%	98.6%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	77%	10%	< 1%	99.41%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	85%	8%	< 1%	99.77%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	92%	7%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	96.2%	3.8%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	98.3%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Brighton (5.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	71%	55%	47%
Arsenal	27%	39%	46%
Man United	1.9%	3.9%	5%
Southampton vs Arsenal (5.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	21%	28%	42%
Tottenham	74%	68%	55%