PL: City 60% favorites after draw at Etihad

City favorites (60%) after a draw at Etihad. If they win their remaining matches, they are champions, but most likely outcome (17%) is that they lose 5 points, in which case Liverpool catch up on them in 36%. More details in table below.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.6 less than expected
Man United: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 less than expected
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	95%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	95.1%	2.2%
Seventh team	95.4%	9%	4.7%
Eighth team	16%	7%	2.9%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

74

Man City

89.8

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

60%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

73

Liverpool

88.5

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

40%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

78.2

+49

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.76%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.77%

57

Tottenham

68.5

+22

< 1%

99.94%

99.41%

95%

64%

< 1%

< 1%

35%

64%

54

Arsenal

66.8

+13

< 1%

99.33%

95.8%

81%

33%

< 1%

3.9%

63%

33%

51

Man United

61.8

+9

< 1%

92%

72%

20%

2.9%

< 1%

21%

68%

2.9%

48

West Ham

58.0

+8

< 1%

64%

23%

3.8%

< 1%

< 1%

36%

19%

12%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

32%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

29%

7%

< 1%

40

Leicester

53.6

-1

< 1%

13%

2.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

9%

22%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

46.7

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

45.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Brighton

44.1

-14

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Southampton

43.9

-17

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Brentford

43.0

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Newcastle

42.0

-23

2.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

36.5

-24

35%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23

Burnley

34.5

-21

59%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

29.1

-37

96.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

26.5

-50

99.68%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	7%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	93%
93	20%	13%	94%	6%	< 1%	-
92	31%	11%	85%	19%	12%	77%
91	41%	10%	74%	29%	10%	66%
90	57%	17%	64%	38%	10%	55%
89	68%	11%	50%	54%	16%	40%
88	78%	10%	38%	64%	11%	29%
87	87%	9%	28%	75%	10%	20%
86	92%	5%	18%	84%	9%	12%
85	95.5%	3.6%	11%	90%	6%	7%
84	97.8%	2.3%	7%	94%	4.3%	3.8%
83	98.9%	1.1%	3%	96.9%	2.9%	1.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Brighton (5.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	71%	56%	47%
Arsenal	27%	40%	47%
Man United	1.9%	3.9%	5%
Southampton vs Arsenal (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	21%	28%	43%
Tottenham	75%	68%	55%

	Tottenham			Arsenal			West Ham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
76	1.3%	1.1%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
75	3.7%	2.4%	99.8%	1.5%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	5%	1.7%	99.8%	2.5%	1.0%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	12%	7%	98.9%	6%	3.3%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	19%	7%	95.4%	10%	3.7%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	81%
71	27%	8%	93%	15%	5%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	40%	13%	86%	23%	9%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	57%
69	51%	11%	76%	32%	8%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	50%	2.1%	1.4%	40%
68	62%	11%	67%	42%	10%	40%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.2%	1.1%	30%
67	73%	12%	51%	54%	12%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	29%	8%	4.5%	16%
66	82%	8%	37%	64%	10%	15%	1.4%	< 1%	20%	13%	5%	8%
65	88%	7%	25%	74%	10%	8%	2.3%	< 1%	15%	19%	6%	3.7%
64	94%	5%	14%	82%	9%	3.1%	6%	3.3%	13%	31%	12%	1.1%
63	96.4%	2.8%	7%	88%	6%	1.3%	10%	3.9%	12%	41%	11%	< 1%
62	98.3%	1.8%	3%	93%	4.7%	< 1%	15%	5.0%	12%	52%	11%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Norwich (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	76%	59%	50%
West Ham	29%	37%	42%
Wolves	6%	10%	13%
West Ham vs Burnley (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	36%	24%	20%
Man United	68%	76%	78%
Arsenal	95%	96.3%	97.0%

	Man United			Arsenal			Tottenham			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	2.1%	1.4%	99.6%	32%	8%	99.96%	51%	11%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	3.2%	1.1%	99.4%	42%	10%	99.94%	62%	11%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	8%	4.5%	98.7%	54%	12%	99.7%	73%	12%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	13%	5%	97.6%	64%	10%	99.4%	82%	8%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	19%	6%	96.5%	74%	10%	98.6%	88%	7%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	91%	2.3%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	31%	12%	93%	82%	9%	96.2%	94%	5%	98.6%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	6%	3.3%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	41%	11%	89%	88%	6%	93%	96.4%	2.8%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	73%	10%	3.9%	77%	1.3%	< 1%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	52%	11%	83%	93%	4.7%	86%	98.3%	1.8%	93%	1.8%	1.1%	60%	15%	5.0%	66%	3.9%	2.6%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	66%	14%	72%	96.3%	3.3%	73%	99.33%	1.1%	86%	3.3%	1.5%	46%	24%	9%	52%	8%	4.4%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	76%	10%	60%	98.1%	1.8%	58%	99.74%	< 1%	71%	6%	2.3%	36%	33%	9%	38%	12%	3.7%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	84%	8%	46%	99.13%	1.0%	41%	99.92%	< 1%	59%	10%	4.5%	29%	43%	10%	29%	23%	11%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	91%	7%	31%	99.68%	< 1%	25%	99.99%	< 1%	39%	15%	4.9%	24%	56%	13%	21%	35%	12%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	16%
57	95.2%	3.9%	20%	99.89%	< 1%	13%	100%	< 1%	23%	22%	7%	21%	67%	10%	15%	45%	10%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	97.6%	2.4%	11%	99.97%	< 1%	6%	100%	< 1%	-	31%	9%	20%	76%	10%	13%	61%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
West Ham vs Burnley (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	74%	58%	49%
Wolves	31%	41%	47%
Man United vs Norwich (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	95%	86%	80%
Wolves	35%	39%	42%

	West Ham			Wolves			Man United			Leicester			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
66	1.4%	< 1%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-	13%	5%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	64%	10%	>99.99%
65	2.3%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	19%	6%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	74%	10%	99.98%
64	6%	3.3%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	31%	12%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	82%	9%	99.9%
63	10%	3.9%	98.7%	1.3%	< 1%	97%	41%	11%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	88%	6%	99.6%
62	15%	5.0%	97.7%	3.9%	2.6%	93%	52%	11%	99.0%	1.8%	1.1%	94%	93%	4.7%	99.0%
61	24%	9%	95.2%	8%	4.4%	85%	66%	14%	97.2%	3.3%	1.5%	87%	96.3%	3.3%	97.0%
60	33%	9%	90%	12%	3.7%	77%	76%	10%	94%	6%	2.3%	78%	98.1%	1.8%	93%
59	43%	10%	85%	23%	11%	64%	84%	8%	89%	10%	4.5%	66%	99.13%	1.0%	86%
58	56%	13%	73%	35%	12%	50%	91%	7%	78%	15%	4.9%	53%	99.68%	< 1%	74%
57	67%	10%	61%	45%	10%	39%	95.2%	3.9%	66%	22%	7%	42%	99.89%	< 1%	59%
56	76%	10%	50%	61%	17%	27%	97.6%	2.4%	51%	31%	9%	33%	99.97%	< 1%	40%
55	85%	9%	35%	74%	13%	18%	99.12%	1.5%	34%	40%	9%	27%	>99.99%	< 1%	29%
54	91%	6%	25%	83%	8%	12%	99.67%	< 1%	20%	51%	11%	23%	100%	< 1%	-
53	95.0%	4.1%	19%	92%	9%	8%	99.89%	< 1%	13%	62%	11%	22%	100%	< 1%	-
52	97.8%	2.8%	14%	96.4%	4.6%	5%	99.99%	< 1%	5%	71%	9%	21%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Burnley (4.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	35%	44%	62%
Everton	69%	63%	53%
Leeds	95%	93%	90%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Leeds			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
37	1.6%	< 1%	68%	30%	8%	73%	49%	11%	80%	89%	9%	86%	96.3%	3.8%	86%
36	3.1%	1.5%	47%	40%	10%	57%	60%	11%	66%	94%	5%	75%	98.3%	2.1%	73%
35	5%	2.1%	30%	49%	10%	42%	72%	12%	53%	97.2%	3.0%	62%	99.66%	1.3%	56%
34	10%	4.7%	16%	60%	10%	27%	81%	9%	39%	99.36%	2.2%	46%	100%	< 1%	39%
33	15%	5%	7%	70%	10%	15%	88%	7%	25%	100%	< 1%	30%	100%	< 1%	-
32	22%	7%	2.5%	78%	8%	8%	94%	6%	15%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	33%	11%	< 1%	85%	7%	3.1%	97.1%	3.1%	8%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	44%	10%	< 1%	91%	6%	< 1%	98.8%	1.7%	3%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	55%	11%	< 1%	95%	3.7%	< 1%	99.76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	68%	13%	< 1%	97.3%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	77%	10%	< 1%	98.8%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	85%	8%	< 1%	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	92%	7%	< 1%	99.83%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	96.3%	3.8%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	98.3%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	63%	20%	17%	Brighton
Man United	76%	14%	9%	Norwich
Southampton	31%	24%	46%	Arsenal
Watford	45%	24%	31%	Brentford
Newcastle	42%	24%	34%	Leicester
West Ham	64%	20%	17%	Burnley