PL: Burnley 65% chance on a new contract

Burnley with a three-pointer against Southampton are ahead of Everton with 1.1 points in average points in simulations, which translates to a 65% probability to avoid relegation, while Everton have a 41% probability. Everton have a tougher schedule with three games against top-6 teams, while Burnley only have one.

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

77

Man City

90.3

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

57%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

76

Liverpool

89.3

+66

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

43%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

76.3

+46

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.80%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.80%

57

Arsenal

67.4

+14

< 1%

99.87%

98.7%

90%

52%

< 1%

< 1%

47%

52%

57

Tottenham

66.4

+20

< 1%

99.86%

98.8%

90%

45%

< 1%

< 1%

54%

45%

54

Man United

61.7

+6

< 1%

94%

77%

18%

3.1%

< 1%

15%

78%

3.1%

49

West Ham

56.9

+7

< 1%

53%

14%

1.8%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

9%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

38%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

9%

< 1%

43

Leicester

54.0

-1

< 1%

15%

2.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11%

36%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.0

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

45.6

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

45.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Newcastle

44.9

-22

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

44.8

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

44.6

-17

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

27

Burnley

36.2

-18

35%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

35.1

-25

59%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.5

-38

98.7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

26.1

-49

99.84%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Wolves (7.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	78%	62%	52%
Everton	31%	43%	51%
Leeds	91%	94%	95.2%
Liverpool vs Everton (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	38%	48%	67%
Burnley	67%	60%	46%
Leeds	94%	92%	87%

	Watford			Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	1.1%	< 1%	38%	57%	15%	36%	68%	11%	58%	97.2%	3.1%	61%
34	3.0%	1.9%	20%	69%	12%	24%	79%	11%	42%	99.35%	2.2%	44%
33	6%	2.7%	9%	78%	10%	14%	86%	7%	29%	100%	< 1%	30%
32	9%	3.2%	3.0%	88%	10%	7%	92%	6%	18%	100%	< 1%	-
31	17%	8%	< 1%	94%	6%	2.6%	96.1%	4.3%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	25%	8%	< 1%	97.1%	3.1%	< 1%	98.2%	2.1%	3%	100%	< 1%	-
29	34%	9%	< 1%	99.34%	2.2%	< 1%	99.30%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
28	49%	15%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
27	61%	12%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
26	72%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	84%	12%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	91%	7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	95.5%	4.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.9%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Man City	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Aston Villa
Norwich	35%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Brentford	31%	24%	45%	Tottenham
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	West Ham
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Southampton
Liverpool	82%	12%	7%	Everton
Crystal Palace	54%	22%	23%	Leeds
Man United	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea