PL: Man City in pole position (57%)

Man City back in pole position with a one-point lead over Liverpool. If Man City win all remaining matches, which happens in 9% of the simulations, they win the league.

In the CL race, Arsenal took 3 important points at Stamford Bridge and thereby have a one point advantage over Tottenham due to a slightly easier schedule. Next is, however, Man United who must win to resurrect their CL hope. They have 10% if they win, 2% if draw and <1% if Arsenal win (more details below).

Hot Teams
Brentford: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Watford: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.92%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	>99.99%	4.5%
Seventh team	100%	23%	14%
Eighth team	39%	19%	11%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

77

Man City

90.3

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

57%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

76

Liverpool

89.3

+66

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

43%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

76.3

+46

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.81%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.81%

57

Arsenal

67.4

+14

< 1%

99.86%

98.7%

90%

52%

< 1%

< 1%

47%

52%

57

Tottenham

66.4

+20

< 1%

99.86%

98.8%

90%

45%

< 1%

< 1%

54%

45%

54

Man United

61.7

+6

< 1%

94%

77%

18%

3.2%

< 1%

15%

78%

3.2%

49

West Ham

56.9

+7

< 1%

53%

14%

1.8%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

9%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

38%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

9%

< 1%

43

Leicester

54.0

-1

< 1%

15%

2.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

11%

36%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.0

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

45.7

-16

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

45.6

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

45.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Newcastle

44.9

-22

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

44.8

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

35.1

-25

49%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Burnley

34.8

-20

48%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.5

-38

98.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

26.1

-49

99.74%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Liverpool vs Everton (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	47%	29%	20%
Man City	53%	71%	80%
Man City vs Watford (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	40%	61%	70%
Man City	60%	39%	30%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	9%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	9%	< 1%	-	10%	10%	91%
93	23%	14%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
92	37%	13%	78%	25%	15%	74%
91	46%	10%	65%	38%	13%	61%
90	63%	17%	54%	48%	10%	50%
89	74%	11%	39%	65%	17%	34%
88	83%	9%	27%	75%	10%	24%
87	91%	8%	18%	83%	8%	16%
86	95%	4.0%	11%	91%	7%	8%
85	97.3%	2.5%	6%	95%	3.9%	5%
84	98.9%	1.6%	3%	97.2%	2.6%	2.3%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Man United (10.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	63%	46%	34%
Man United	< 1%	2.0%	10%
Tottenham	36%	52%	56%
Brentford vs Tottenham (7.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	31%	40%	58%
Arsenal	64%	57%	41%
Man United	4.7%	3.7%	1.7%

	Arsenal			Tottenham			West Ham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	1.2%	1.2%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	1.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	4.9%	3.6%	99.8%	2.0%	1.6%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	10%	5%	96.2%	6%	3.6%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	14%	4.3%	97.7%	8%	2.2%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	26%	12%	87%	17%	9%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	37%	11%	74%	26%	9%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.3%	63%
68	47%	11%	68%	35%	9%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	< 1%	-
67	62%	15%	46%	51%	15%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	59%	5%	3.7%	28%
66	72%	10%	31%	62%	12%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	6%	12%
65	81%	9%	20%	72%	10%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	40%	15%	4.2%	7%
64	89%	8%	8%	83%	11%	11%	2.2%	1.4%	37%	28%	13%	1.7%
63	94%	4.5%	3.3%	90%	7%	4.0%	3.4%	1.2%	35%	41%	12%	< 1%
62	96.9%	2.9%	1.1%	94%	4.5%	1.4%	8%	4.6%	36%	51%	10%	< 1%
61	98.8%	1.9%	< 1%	97.5%	3.3%	< 1%	13%	5%	35%	67%	16%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Chelsea (6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	92%	79%	71%
Wolves	4.2%	9%	13%
West Ham	41%	46%	49%
Arsenal vs Man United (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	74%	82%	93%
Wolves	11%	8%	4.1%
Arsenal	99.86%	98.9%	97.2%
Burnley vs Wolves (3.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	3.5%	6%	16%
Man United	85%	83%	75%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	1.3%	1.3%	100%	26%	9%	100%	37%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	1.3%	< 1%	-	35%	9%	100%	47%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	5%	3.7%	>99.99%	51%	15%	100%	62%	15%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
66	11%	6%	99.97%	62%	12%	>99.99%	72%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	15%	4.2%	99.7%	72%	10%	99.98%	81%	9%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
64	28%	13%	98.6%	83%	11%	99.9%	89%	8%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	2.2%	1.4%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	87%
63	41%	12%	97.1%	90%	7%	99.3%	94%	4.5%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.4%	1.2%	87%	1.3%	< 1%	76%
62	51%	10%	92%	94%	4.5%	98.1%	96.9%	2.9%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	74%	8%	4.6%	78%	3.9%	2.6%	59%
61	67%	16%	84%	97.5%	3.3%	94%	98.8%	1.9%	85%	2.5%	1.6%	61%	13%	5%	67%	8%	4.4%	43%
60	78%	11%	75%	99.0%	1.4%	84%	99.53%	< 1%	74%	3.7%	1.2%	51%	20%	6%	56%	12%	3.7%	28%
59	86%	8%	60%	99.60%	< 1%	74%	99.84%	< 1%	58%	9%	5%	43%	31%	12%	48%	23%	11%	16%
58	94%	8%	44%	99.93%	< 1%	52%	99.97%	< 1%	37%	15%	6%	38%	42%	11%	42%	35%	12%	8%
57	97.2%	3.7%	30%	100%	< 1%	29%	100%	< 1%	24%	21%	7%	36%	53%	11%	38%	45%	10%	3.3%
56	98.7%	1.5%	16%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	34%	12%	35%	67%	14%	36%	62%	17%	1.1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Burnley vs Wolves (6.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	42%	51%	68%
West Ham	77%	73%	63%
Leicester	51%	48%	43%
Man United	97.4%	96.6%	94%
Chelsea vs West Ham (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	67%	74%	85%
Wolves	56%	52%	44%

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	1.3%	< 1%	99%	3.4%	1.2%	99.9%	41%	12%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	3.9%	2.6%	98.0%	8%	4.6%	99.6%	51%	10%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	98%
61	8%	4.4%	95%	13%	5%	98.4%	67%	16%	99.2%	2.5%	1.6%	95%
60	12%	3.7%	90%	20%	6%	95.6%	78%	11%	98.0%	3.7%	1.2%	90%
59	23%	11%	82%	31%	12%	92%	86%	8%	94%	9%	5%	81%
58	35%	12%	72%	42%	11%	83%	94%	8%	87%	15%	6%	71%
57	45%	10%	61%	53%	11%	74%	97.2%	3.7%	78%	21%	7%	62%
56	62%	17%	48%	67%	14%	65%	98.7%	1.5%	63%	34%	12%	52%
55	74%	13%	38%	77%	10%	54%	99.74%	1.0%	48%	44%	11%	45%
54	83%	8%	30%	85%	8%	46%	100%	< 1%	34%	55%	11%	40%
53	92%	9%	23%	93%	7%	42%	100%	< 1%	-	68%	13%	37%
52	96.4%	4.5%	16%	96.3%	3.8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	77%	9%	36%
51	98.3%	1.9%	13%	98.3%	2.0%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	85%	8%	35%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Southampton (7.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	65%	47%	38%
Everton	41%	55%	63%
Leeds	93%	95.9%	96.9%
Burnley vs Wolves (7.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	66%	48%	39%
Everton	40%	54%	61%
Leeds	93%	95.7%	96.7%
Liverpool vs Everton (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	48%	58%	75%
Burnley	54%	47%	34%
Leeds	95.4%	94%	91%

	Watford			Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	1.2%	< 1%	46%	57%	15%	51%	52%	11%	59%	97.2%	3.1%	70%
34	3.0%	1.8%	27%	69%	12%	38%	64%	11%	43%	99.36%	2.2%	54%
33	6%	2.7%	14%	78%	10%	26%	73%	9%	29%	100%	< 1%	40%
32	9%	3.2%	6%	88%	10%	16%	81%	8%	18%	100%	< 1%	-
31	17%	8%	1.6%	94%	6%	8%	88%	7%	9%	100%	< 1%	-
30	25%	8%	< 1%	97.1%	3.0%	4%	93%	4.5%	3.2%	100%	< 1%	-
29	34%	9%	< 1%	99.33%	2.2%	1.1%	96.3%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
28	49%	15%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	98.3%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
27	61%	12%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	99.29%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
26	72%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
25	84%	12%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
24	91%	7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
23	95.5%	4.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.9%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Burnley	46%	24%	30%	Southampton
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Man City	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Aston Villa
Norwich	35%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Brentford	31%	24%	45%	Tottenham
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	West Ham
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Southampton
Liverpool	82%	12%	7%	Everton
Crystal Palace	54%	22%	24%	Leeds
Man United	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea