PL: Liverpool with 47% chance on the title

Liverpool with 47% chance on the PL title, only trailing 0.5 points behind Man City in expected points. United down to 5% in CL race and must win next at Emirates to have a reasonable chance.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.9 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	1.0%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.98%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	>99.99%	4.8%
Seventh team	100%	22%	14%
Eighth team	38%	17%	11%

Simulated points for winner: 90 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

74

Man City

89.8

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

53%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

76

Liverpool

89.3

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

47%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

78.2

+49

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.95%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.95%

57

Tottenham

66.4

+20

< 1%

99.90%

99.0%

92%

60%

< 1%

< 1%

39%

60%

54

Arsenal

65.2

+12

< 1%

99.08%

95%

76%

34%

< 1%

3.6%

62%

34%

54

Man United

61.7

+7

< 1%

95.3%

79%

28%

5%

< 1%

14%

77%

5%

49

West Ham

56.9

+7

< 1%

56%

17%

3.2%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

10%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

40%

9%

1.1%

< 1%

< 1%

47%

10%

< 1%

40

Leicester

52.3

-2

< 1%

9%

1.4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

7%

35%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

46.7

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.4

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

45.7

-16

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

45.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

44.8

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Newcastle

43.5

-22

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

36.5

-24

37%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Burnley

34.8

-20

57%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.5

-38

98.7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

26.1

-49

99.83%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Brighton (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	57%	37%	28%
Liverpool	43%	63%	72%
Liverpool vs Everton (4.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	51%	32%	24%
Man City	49%	68%	76%
Man City vs Watford (4.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	56%	36%	27%
Liverpool	44%	64%	73%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	7%	< 1%	-	10%	10%	93%
93	20%	13%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
92	31%	11%	79%	25%	15%	77%
91	41%	10%	66%	38%	13%	66%
90	57%	17%	55%	48%	10%	55%
89	68%	11%	40%	65%	17%	39%
88	78%	10%	28%	75%	10%	29%
87	87%	9%	19%	83%	8%	20%
86	92%	5%	11%	91%	8%	12%
85	95.5%	3.6%	6%	95%	3.9%	7%
84	97.8%	2.3%	3%	97.3%	2.6%	4%
83	98.9%	1.1%	1%	98.8%	1.6%	2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Man United (10%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	45%	29%	18%
Man United	1.1%	4.3%	15%
Tottenham	54%	67%	67%
Brentford vs Tottenham (7.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	46%	55%	72%
Arsenal	45%	38%	25%
Man United	8%	6%	2.8%
Chelsea vs Arsenal (5.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	27%	36%	52%
Tottenham	66%	59%	45%
Man United vs Chelsea (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	10%	3.5%	1.7%
Tottenham	57%	61%	62%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Arsenal			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	2.0%	1.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.0%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	6%	3.6%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.1%	1.8%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	8%	2.2%	99.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.8%	1.7%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	17%	9%	97.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	6%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	26%	9%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	17%	6%	78%	1.3%	1.3%	71%
68	35%	9%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	7%	72%	1.3%	< 1%	-
67	51%	15%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	36%	12%	51%	5%	3.7%	41%
66	62%	12%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	-	46%	11%	36%	11%	6%	22%
65	72%	10%	45%	< 1%	< 1%	46%	57%	11%	24%	15%	4.1%	15%
64	83%	11%	28%	2.2%	1.4%	40%	70%	12%	11%	28%	13%	5%
63	90%	6%	14%	3.3%	1.1%	37%	79%	9%	4.7%	41%	12%	1.7%
62	94%	4.5%	7%	8%	4.6%	36%	86%	7%	1.6%	51%	10%	< 1%
61	97.5%	3.3%	2.1%	13%	5%	36%	92%	6%	< 1%	67%	16%	< 1%
60	98.9%	1.4%	< 1%	19%	6%	36%	95.8%	3.4%	< 1%	78%	11%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Arsenal vs Man United (6.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	76%	85%	95%
Arsenal	98.8%	95.0%	91%
Wolves	12%	9%	6%
Man United vs Chelsea (5.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	93%	82%	73%
Wolves	5%	10%	14%
West Ham	42%	47%	50%
Burnley vs Wolves (4.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	3.9%	7%	18%
Man United	87%	85%	77%

	Man United			Arsenal			Tottenham			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	1.3%	1.3%	100%	17%	6%	100%	26%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	1.3%	< 1%	-	24%	7%	100%	35%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	5%	3.7%	100%	36%	12%	100%	51%	15%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
66	11%	6%	99.98%	46%	11%	>99.99%	62%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	15%	4.1%	99.9%	57%	11%	99.95%	72%	10%	99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
64	28%	13%	99.1%	70%	12%	99.6%	83%	11%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	2.2%	1.4%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	91%
63	41%	12%	98.0%	79%	9%	98.5%	90%	6%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.3%	1.1%	91%	1.3%	< 1%	81%
62	51%	10%	94%	86%	7%	95.2%	94%	4.5%	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	78%	8%	4.6%	83%	3.9%	2.6%	65%
61	67%	16%	87%	92%	6%	88%	97.5%	3.3%	95%	1.0%	< 1%	65%	13%	5%	73%	8%	4.4%	48%
60	78%	11%	78%	95.8%	3.4%	78%	98.9%	1.4%	86%	1.6%	< 1%	55%	19%	6%	60%	12%	3.7%	32%
59	86%	8%	64%	97.9%	2.1%	61%	99.58%	< 1%	77%	4.2%	2.5%	45%	31%	12%	50%	23%	11%	18%
58	94%	8%	48%	99.21%	1.3%	44%	99.92%	< 1%	58%	7%	3.1%	39%	42%	11%	43%	35%	12%	9%
57	97.2%	3.6%	33%	99.70%	< 1%	30%	100%	< 1%	40%	11%	4.1%	36%	53%	11%	38%	45%	10%	3.9%
56	98.7%	1.5%	21%	99.90%	< 1%	17%	100%	< 1%	-	19%	8%	35%	67%	14%	37%	62%	17%	1.2%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Burnley vs Wolves (6.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	45%	54%	71%
West Ham	79%	74%	64%
Man United	98.0%	97.2%	95.1%
Chelsea vs West Ham (2.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	68%	75%	86%
Wolves	60%	55%	46%

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	1.3%	< 1%	99.7%	3.3%	1.1%	99.9%	41%	12%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	79%	9%	99.98%
62	3.9%	2.6%	98.5%	8%	4.6%	99.7%	51%	10%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	86%	7%	99.9%
61	8%	4.4%	96.1%	13%	5%	98.7%	67%	16%	99.4%	1.0%	< 1%	96%	92%	6%	99.4%
60	12%	3.7%	92%	19%	6%	96.5%	78%	11%	98.4%	1.6%	< 1%	92%	95.8%	3.4%	98.2%
59	23%	11%	84%	31%	12%	93%	86%	8%	95.3%	4.2%	2.5%	83%	97.9%	2.1%	95%
58	35%	12%	74%	42%	11%	85%	94%	8%	90%	7%	3.1%	72%	99.21%	1.3%	88%
57	45%	10%	64%	53%	11%	76%	97.2%	3.6%	81%	11%	4.1%	63%	99.70%	< 1%	79%
56	62%	17%	52%	67%	14%	67%	98.7%	1.5%	69%	19%	8%	53%	99.90%	< 1%	66%
55	74%	13%	42%	77%	10%	56%	99.74%	1.0%	54%	27%	8%	45%	99.99%	< 1%	53%
54	83%	8%	34%	85%	8%	48%	100%	< 1%	39%	37%	10%	41%	100%	< 1%	37%
53	92%	9%	26%	93%	7%	43%	100%	< 1%	-	49%	12%	37%	100%	< 1%	-
52	96.4%	4.5%	19%	96.3%	3.8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	59%	10%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
51	98.3%	1.9%	14%	98.3%	2.0%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	70%	10%	35%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Wolves (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	57%	39%	31%
Everton	54%	66%	72%
Leeds	90%	94%	95.6%
Burnley vs Southampton (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	56%	38%	29%
Everton	55%	67%	73%
Leeds	90%	94%	95.8%
Everton vs Leicester (6.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	77%	60%	51%
Burnley	33%	45%	52%
Leeds	91%	94%	95%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	1.1%	< 1%	32%	53%	11%	42%	72%	12%	50%	97.2%	3.1%	62%
34	3.0%	1.9%	18%	64%	11%	29%	81%	9%	37%	99.35%	2.2%	46%
33	6%	2.7%	8%	73%	9%	18%	88%	7%	26%	100%	< 1%	33%
32	9%	3.2%	3.0%	81%	8%	10%	94%	6%	16%	100%	< 1%	-
31	17%	8%	< 1%	89%	7%	4.5%	97.1%	3.1%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	25%	8%	< 1%	93%	4.6%	1.6%	98.8%	1.6%	4%	100%	< 1%	-
29	34%	9%	< 1%	96.3%	3.2%	< 1%	99.76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
28	49%	15%	< 1%	98.3%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
27	61%	12%	< 1%	99.28%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	72%	11%	< 1%	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	84%	12%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	91%	7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	95.4%	4.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.9%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	57%	21%	21%	Arsenal
Everton	39%	24%	37%	Leicester
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Man City	81%	12%	7%	Brighton
Burnley	46%	24%	30%	Southampton
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Man City	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Aston Villa
Norwich	36%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Brentford	31%	24%	45%	Tottenham
Chelsea	64%	19%	16%	West Ham
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Wolves
Brighton	47%	24%	29%	Southampton
Liverpool	82%	12%	7%	Everton
Crystal Palace	54%	22%	24%	Leeds
Man United	39%	24%	37%	Chelsea