PL: Newcastle clinch new contract (>99%)

Newcastle have practically (>99%) clinched a new contract with a last-minute winner. On Tuesday Liverpool are hosting Man United, an important match both for the title race and the CL race. Liverpool are up to 47% chance if they win, compared with 29% or 22% at a draw or loss, respectively. Man United have 20% if they win and below 10% otherwise.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.98%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	100%	4.2%
Seventh team	100%	22%	15%
Eighth team	38%	17%	11%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 39

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

74

Man City

89.8

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

60%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

73

Liverpool

88.5

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

40%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

78.2

+49

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.95%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.95%

57

Tottenham

66.4

+20

< 1%

99.89%

98.9%

90%

58%

< 1%

< 1%

41%

58%

54

Arsenal

65.2

+12

< 1%

99.06%

94%

73%

33%

< 1%

3.8%

62%

33%

54

Man United

62.4

+8

< 1%

96.3%

83%

34%

8%

< 1%

12%

78%

8%

49

West Ham

56.9

+7

< 1%

56%

15%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

27%

9%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

40%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48%

8%

< 1%

40

Leicester

52.3

-2

< 1%

8%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

7%

35%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

46.7

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.4

-12

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

45.7

-16

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

45.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

44.8

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

37

Newcastle

43.5

-22

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

36.5

-24

37%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24

Burnley

34.8

-20

57%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.5

-38

98.7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

26.1

-49

99.84%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Liverpool vs Man United (6.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	47%	29%	22%
Man City	53%	70%	78%
Man City vs Brighton (5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	64%	45%	35%
Liverpool	36%	55%	65%
Man City vs Watford (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	63%	44%	34%
Liverpool	37%	56%	65%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	7%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	93%
93	20%	13%	94%	6%	< 1%	-
92	31%	11%	85%	19%	12%	77%
91	41%	10%	74%	29%	10%	66%
90	57%	17%	64%	38%	10%	55%
89	68%	11%	50%	54%	16%	40%
88	78%	10%	38%	64%	11%	29%
87	87%	9%	28%	75%	10%	20%
86	92%	5%	18%	84%	9%	12%
85	95.5%	3.6%	11%	90%	6%	7%
84	97.8%	2.3%	7%	94%	4.4%	3.9%
83	98.9%	1.1%	4%	96.9%	2.8%	1.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Man United (10.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	2.4%	7%	20%
Arsenal	44%	28%	17%
Tottenham	53%	65%	63%
Brentford vs Tottenham (7.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	44%	53%	71%
Arsenal	43%	37%	24%
Man United	12%	9%	4.8%
Chelsea vs Arsenal (5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	27%	35%	51%
Tottenham	64%	57%	44%
Man United	9%	8%	5%
Liverpool vs Man United (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	5%	9%	20%
Tottenham	60%	58%	51%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Arsenal			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	2.0%	1.6%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.0%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	6%	3.6%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.1%	1.8%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	95%
71	8%	2.2%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.8%	1.7%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	17%	9%	97.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	6%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
69	26%	9%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	17%	6%	78%	2.7%	1.7%	68%
68	35%	9%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	7%	71%	4.0%	1.3%	58%
67	50%	15%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	63%	36%	12%	50%	10%	6%	38%
66	62%	12%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-	46%	11%	34%	16%	7%	22%
65	72%	10%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	46%	57%	11%	22%	23%	7%	13%
64	83%	11%	25%	2.2%	1.4%	40%	70%	12%	10%	36%	13%	5.0%
63	90%	7%	12%	3.3%	1.1%	37%	79%	9%	4.1%	48%	12%	1.7%
62	94%	4.5%	6%	8%	4.6%	36%	86%	7%	1.4%	59%	11%	< 1%
61	97.5%	3.4%	1.7%	13%	5%	36%	92%	6%	< 1%	73%	14%	< 1%
60	99.0%	1.4%	< 1%	19%	6%	35%	95.8%	3.4%	< 1%	82%	9%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Arsenal vs Man United (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	80%	88%	95.9%
Arsenal	98.7%	95%	90%
Wolves	10%	8%	6%
Liverpool vs Man United (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	83%	89%	95.9%
Wolves	10%	7%	4.1%

	Man United			Arsenal			Tottenham			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	2.7%	1.7%	100%	17%	6%	100%	26%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	4.0%	1.3%	100%	24%	7%	100%	35%	9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	10%	6%	>99.99%	36%	12%	>99.99%	50%	15%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%
66	16%	7%	99.97%	46%	11%	99.99%	62%	12%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	23%	7%	99.9%	57%	11%	99.90%	72%	10%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	96%
64	36%	13%	99.1%	70%	12%	99.4%	83%	11%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	2.2%	1.4%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	87%
63	48%	12%	97.9%	79%	9%	98.3%	90%	7%	99.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.3%	1.1%	89%	1.3%	< 1%	77%
62	59%	11%	94%	86%	7%	95%	94%	4.5%	98.3%	< 1%	< 1%	76%	8%	4.6%	80%	3.9%	2.6%	60%
61	73%	14%	87%	92%	6%	87%	97.5%	3.4%	94%	1.0%	< 1%	62%	13%	5%	68%	8%	4.4%	42%
60	82%	9%	78%	95.8%	3.4%	77%	99.0%	1.4%	85%	1.6%	< 1%	51%	19%	6%	56%	12%	3.7%	27%
59	89%	7%	64%	97.9%	2.1%	60%	99.60%	< 1%	76%	4.2%	2.5%	43%	31%	12%	48%	23%	11%	14%
58	95.1%	6%	48%	99.22%	1.3%	43%	99.93%	< 1%	59%	7%	3.1%	38%	42%	11%	41%	35%	12%	7%
57	97.9%	2.8%	34%	99.71%	< 1%	30%	100%	< 1%	40%	11%	4.1%	36%	53%	11%	38%	45%	10%	2.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	1.3%	< 1%	99.6%	3.3%	1.1%	99.9%	48%	12%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	79%	9%	99.99%
62	3.9%	2.6%	98.3%	8%	4.6%	99.6%	59%	11%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	86%	7%	99.9%
61	8%	4.4%	95.5%	13%	5%	98.5%	73%	14%	99.4%	1.0%	< 1%	95%	92%	6%	99.3%
60	12%	3.7%	91%	19%	6%	96.0%	82%	9%	98.5%	1.6%	< 1%	91%	95.8%	3.4%	98.2%
59	23%	11%	83%	31%	12%	92%	89%	7%	95.6%	4.2%	2.5%	82%	97.9%	2.1%	95%
58	35%	12%	74%	42%	11%	85%	95.1%	6%	90%	7%	3.1%	72%	99.22%	1.3%	87%
57	45%	10%	64%	53%	11%	76%	97.9%	2.8%	81%	11%	4.1%	63%	99.71%	< 1%	77%
56	61%	17%	52%	67%	14%	67%	99.11%	1.2%	69%	19%	8%	53%	99.90%	< 1%	65%
55	74%	13%	42%	77%	10%	56%	99.83%	< 1%	54%	27%	8%	45%	99.99%	< 1%	51%
54	83%	8%	34%	85%	8%	48%	100%	< 1%	42%	37%	10%	41%	100%	< 1%	37%
53	92%	9%	26%	93%	7%	43%	100%	< 1%	-	49%	12%	37%	100%	< 1%	-
52	96.4%	4.6%	19%	96.3%	3.8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	59%	10%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
51	98.3%	1.9%	14%	98.3%	2.0%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	69%	10%	35%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Southampton (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	56%	38%	29%
Everton	55%	67%	73%
Leeds	90%	94%	95.8%
Everton vs Leicester (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	77%	60%	51%
Burnley	34%	46%	53%
Leeds	91%	93%	95%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	1.1%	< 1%	33%	53%	11%	43%	72%	12%	50%	97.2%	3.1%	61%
34	3.0%	1.8%	18%	64%	11%	29%	81%	9%	38%	99.35%	2.2%	46%
33	6%	2.7%	8%	73%	9%	18%	88%	7%	26%	100%	< 1%	33%
32	9%	3.2%	3.1%	82%	8%	10%	94%	6%	15%	100%	< 1%	-
31	17%	8%	< 1%	89%	7%	4.3%	97.1%	3.1%	8%	100%	< 1%	-
30	25%	8%	< 1%	93%	4.5%	1.5%	98.8%	1.7%	4%	100%	< 1%	-
29	34%	9%	< 1%	96.3%	3.2%	< 1%	99.76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
28	49%	15%	< 1%	98.3%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
27	61%	12%	< 1%	99.29%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	72%	11%	< 1%	99.75%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	84%	12%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	91%	7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	95.5%	4.2%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.9%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Liverpool	67%	18%	15%	Man United
Chelsea	58%	21%	21%	Arsenal
Everton	39%	24%	37%	Leicester
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Man City	81%	12%	7%	Brighton
Burnley	46%	24%	30%	Southampton
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Man City	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Aston Villa
Norwich	35%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Brentford	31%	24%	45%	Tottenham