PL: United are back (8%) in the CL race

United are back (8%) in the CL race after Spurs and Arsenal both lost. United are next traveling to Anfield and Emirates and with 3-4 points in those matches, they are really in the race.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.9 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Liverpool: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Arsenal: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Aston Villa: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Southampton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	1.8%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	95%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	95.3%	6%
Seventh team	96.2%	25%	14%
Eighth team	38%	16%	9%

Simulated points for winner: 89 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

74

Man City

89.8

+63

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

60%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

73

Liverpool

88.5

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

40%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Chelsea

78.2

+49

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

>99.99%

99.94%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.94%

57

Tottenham

66.4

+20

< 1%

99.78%

98.2%

89%

58%

< 1%

1.7%

40%

58%

54

Arsenal

65.2

+12

< 1%

98.6%

92%

72%

33%

< 1%

6%

60%

33%

54

Man United

62.4

+8

< 1%

95%

77%

32%

8%

< 1%

16%

71%

8%

48

West Ham

58.0

+8

< 1%

63%

23%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

26%

13%

36%

49

Wolves

56.3

+3

< 1%

31%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39%

7%

< 1%

40

Leicester

53.6

-1

< 1%

13%

2.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

9%

36%

< 1%

37

Crystal Palace

46.8

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

< 1%

40

Brighton

46.4

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Southampton

45.7

-16

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Aston Villa

45.3

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

39

Brentford

44.8

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Newcastle

42.0

-23

2.7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Leeds

40.3

-30

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28

Everton

36.5

-24

34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23

Burnley

34.5

-21

59%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

27.5

-38

98.6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

26.1

-49

99.82%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Liverpool vs Man United (6.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	47%	30%	21%
Man City	53%	70%	78%
Man City vs Brighton (4.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	64%	45%	35%
Liverpool	36%	55%	64%
Man City vs Watford (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	63%	43%	34%
Liverpool	37%	56%	65%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	7%	< 1%	-	6%	6%	93%
93	20%	13%	94%	6%	< 1%	-
92	31%	11%	85%	19%	12%	77%
91	41%	10%	74%	29%	10%	66%
90	57%	17%	64%	38%	10%	55%
89	68%	11%	50%	54%	16%	40%
88	78%	10%	39%	64%	11%	29%
87	87%	9%	28%	75%	10%	20%
86	92%	5%	18%	84%	9%	12%
85	95.5%	3.6%	11%	90%	6%	7%
84	97.8%	2.3%	7%	94%	4.3%	4.0%
83	98.9%	1.1%	3%	96.9%	2.9%	1.8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Man United (10.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	2.3%	7%	20%
Arsenal	44%	27%	17%
Tottenham	53%	64%	62%
Brentford vs Tottenham (7.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	44%	53%	71%
Arsenal	43%	37%	24%
Man United	12%	9%	4.7%
Chelsea vs Arsenal (5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	26%	34%	51%
Tottenham	64%	57%	44%
Liverpool vs Man United (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	5%	9%	20%
Tottenham	60%	57%	51%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Arsenal			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
73	2.0%	1.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.3%	1.0%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	6%	3.6%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.1%	1.8%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	94%
71	8%	2.2%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.8%	1.7%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	17%	9%	97.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-	10%	6%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	83%
69	26%	9%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	84%	16%	6%	78%	2.7%	1.7%	68%
68	35%	9%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	7%	71%	4.0%	1.3%	59%
67	50%	15%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	36%	12%	49%	10%	6%	37%
66	62%	12%	54%	1.5%	< 1%	51%	46%	11%	33%	16%	7%	22%
65	72%	10%	41%	2.3%	< 1%	46%	57%	11%	22%	23%	7%	13%
64	83%	11%	24%	6%	3.3%	40%	70%	13%	9%	36%	13%	4.7%
63	90%	7%	11%	10%	3.9%	37%	79%	9%	3.7%	48%	12%	1.6%
62	94%	4.5%	5%	15%	5.0%	36%	86%	7%	1.2%	59%	11%	< 1%
61	97.5%	3.3%	1.5%	24%	9%	36%	92%	6%	< 1%	73%	14%	< 1%
60	98.9%	1.4%	< 1%	33%	9%	36%	95.8%	3.4%	< 1%	82%	9%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Arsenal vs Man United (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	72%	81%	93%
Arsenal	97.5%	92%	85%
Liverpool vs Man United (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	76%	83%	92%
Wolves	8%	6%	3.6%
West Ham	51%	48%	45%

	Man United			Arsenal			Tottenham			Leicester			West Ham			Wolves			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
69	2.7%	1.7%	99.9%	16%	6%	>99.99%	26%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	4.0%	1.3%	99.9%	24%	7%	99.97%	35%	9%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	10%	6%	99.6%	36%	12%	99.9%	50%	15%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	16%	7%	98.8%	46%	11%	99.6%	62%	12%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.5%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	23%	7%	98.2%	57%	11%	99.0%	72%	10%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	2.3%	< 1%	98%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	36%	13%	95.6%	70%	13%	97.2%	83%	11%	99.0%	< 1%	< 1%	90%	6%	3.3%	94%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	48%	12%	92%	79%	9%	94%	90%	7%	96.9%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	10%	3.9%	86%	1.3%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	59%	11%	86%	86%	7%	88%	94%	4.5%	94%	1.8%	1.1%	71%	15%	5.0%	78%	3.9%	2.6%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	73%	14%	76%	92%	6%	77%	97.5%	3.3%	87%	3.3%	1.5%	58%	24%	9%	66%	8%	4.4%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	82%	9%	65%	95.8%	3.4%	64%	98.9%	1.4%	75%	6%	2.2%	48%	33%	9%	54%	12%	3.7%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	89%	7%	52%	97.9%	2.1%	50%	99.59%	< 1%	64%	10%	4.5%	41%	43%	10%	46%	23%	11%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	95.1%	6%	37%	99.20%	1.3%	33%	99.93%	< 1%	44%	15%	5.0%	37%	56%	13%	41%	35%	12%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	18%
57	97.9%	2.8%	25%	99.69%	< 1%	22%	100%	< 1%	28%	22%	7%	35%	67%	10%	37%	45%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
West Ham vs Burnley (2.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	81%	70%	63%
Wolves	43%	51%	55%

	Wolves			West Ham			Man United			Leicester			Arsenal			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
63	1.3%	< 1%	98%	10%	3.9%	99.2%	48%	12%	99.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	79%	9%	99.7%	90%	7%	99.9%
62	3.9%	2.6%	94%	15%	5.0%	98.5%	59%	11%	99.2%	1.8%	1.1%	96%	86%	7%	99.3%	94%	4.5%	99.8%
61	8%	4.4%	88%	24%	9%	96.6%	73%	14%	97.8%	3.3%	1.5%	91%	92%	6%	97.7%	97.5%	3.3%	99.0%
60	12%	3.7%	81%	33%	9%	93%	82%	9%	95.5%	6%	2.2%	84%	95.8%	3.4%	95%	98.9%	1.4%	97%
59	23%	11%	71%	43%	10%	89%	89%	7%	91%	10%	4.5%	76%	97.9%	2.1%	89%	99.59%	< 1%	94%
58	35%	12%	60%	56%	13%	80%	95.1%	6%	82%	15%	5.0%	66%	99.20%	1.3%	80%	99.93%	< 1%	84%
57	45%	10%	50%	67%	10%	71%	97.9%	2.8%	72%	22%	7%	57%	99.69%	< 1%	68%	100%	< 1%	72%
56	62%	17%	40%	76%	10%	63%	99.10%	1.2%	59%	31%	9%	50%	99.90%	< 1%	54%	100%	< 1%	-
55	74%	13%	32%	85%	9%	53%	99.83%	< 1%	44%	40%	9%	43%	99.98%	< 1%	40%	100%	< 1%	-
54	83%	8%	26%	91%	6%	46%	100%	< 1%	31%	51%	10%	40%	100%	< 1%	27%	100%	< 1%	-
53	92%	9%	21%	95.0%	4.0%	41%	100%	< 1%	-	62%	11%	37%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
52	96.4%	4.6%	16%	97.8%	2.8%	38%	100%	< 1%	-	71%	9%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
51	98.3%	1.9%	11%	99.07%	1.3%	36%	100%	< 1%	-	79%	9%	34%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Burnley vs Southampton (6.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	53%	36%	28%
Everton	58%	70%	76%
Leeds	91%	95%	96.2%
Everton vs Leicester (6.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	79%	63%	54%
Burnley	32%	44%	50%
Leeds	92%	94%	95.4%
West Ham vs Burnley (4.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	35%	44%	61%
Everton	70%	64%	53%
Leeds	95%	93%	89%

	Watford			Burnley			Everton			Leeds			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
35	1.1%	< 1%	34%	49%	10%	43%	72%	12%	55%	97.2%	3.1%	64%	99.65%	1.3%	58%
34	3.0%	1.9%	19%	60%	10%	29%	81%	9%	42%	99.34%	2.2%	50%	100%	< 1%	41%
33	6%	2.7%	9%	70%	10%	18%	88%	7%	29%	100%	< 1%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
32	9%	3.2%	4%	78%	8%	10%	94%	6%	19%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	17%	8%	1.1%	85%	7%	4.4%	97.1%	3.1%	11%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	25%	8%	< 1%	91%	6%	1.5%	98.8%	1.7%	5%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	34%	9%	< 1%	95%	3.7%	< 1%	99.76%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	49%	15%	< 1%	97.3%	2.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	61%	12%	< 1%	98.8%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	72%	11%	< 1%	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	84%	12%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
24	91%	7%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
23	95.5%	4.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
22	98.9%	3.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	42%	24%	34%	Leicester
West Ham	64%	20%	17%	Burnley
Liverpool	67%	18%	15%	Man United
Chelsea	57%	22%	21%	Arsenal
Everton	39%	24%	37%	Leicester
Newcastle	46%	24%	30%	Crystal Palace
Man City	81%	12%	7%	Brighton
Burnley	46%	24%	30%	Southampton
Arsenal	51%	23%	26%	Man United
Man City	85%	10%	5%	Watford
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Aston Villa
Norwich	36%	24%	40%	Newcastle
Brentford	31%	24%	45%	Tottenham