Correction: PL

 There was an error in the previous post from today that Everton had incorrectly lost against Leicester. The table is corrected below.

Everton can clinch the new contract with a win against Crystal Palace on Thursday.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

90

Man City

92.5

+74

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

89%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Liverpool

90.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

11%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

70

Chelsea

74.6

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.82%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.82%

68

Tottenham

69.8

+25

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

55%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

55%

66

Arsenal

69.7

+13

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

46%

< 1%

< 1%

54%

46%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

100%

78%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22%

78%

< 1%

56

West Ham

57.3

+11

< 1%

100%

22%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

78%

22%

< 1%

51

Wolves

51.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Leicester

50.7

-0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

49.5

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Brentford

47.7

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

47.7

+4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Aston Villa

46.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

Everton

38.1

-21

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Burnley

36.6

-18

32%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Leeds

36.0

-36

61%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23

Watford

23.3

-44

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22

Norwich

22.9

-57

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Brentford vs Leeds (51.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	16%	36%	85%
Everton	100%	100%	72%
Burnley	84%	64%	43%
Burnley vs Newcastle (39.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	92%	69%	32%
Leeds	20%	35%	71%
Everton	88%	95.6%	97.0%
Aston Villa vs Burnley (24.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	50%	79%	95.3%
Leeds	55%	28%	17%
Everton vs Crystal Palace (7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	100%	89%	86%
Burnley	64%	69%	72%
Arsenal vs Everton (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	90%	95%	100%
Burnley	69%	67%	64%

	Leeds			Burnley			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
38	27%	27%	85%	27%	16%	100%	54%	4.3%	100%
37	27%	< 1%	-	59%	31%	85%	77%	23%	84%
36	50%	23%	36%	64%	5%	79%	100%	23%	83%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points