PL: City with 89% on league title

Liverpool must win against Southampton to stay in the title race. If they win also in the last match, they have 21% chance. City clinch the league if they win their last match. If they draw, they have 48% chance since Liverpool win the remaining two matches in 52% of our simulations.

Tottenham are now favorites (55%) to grab the 4th CL spot. Arsenal have 80% chance on CL spot if they win tonight against Newcastle, 32% with a draw and only 16% if they lose.

Simulated points for winner: 93 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

90

Man City

92.5

+74

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

89%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Liverpool

90.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

11%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

70

Chelsea

74.6

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.82%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.82%

68

Tottenham

69.8

+25

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

55%

< 1%

< 1%

45%

55%

66

Arsenal

69.7

+13

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

46%

< 1%

< 1%

54%

46%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

100%

78%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22%

78%

< 1%

56

West Ham

57.3

+11

< 1%

99.91%

22%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

78%

22%

< 1%

50

Leicester

52.7

+1

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

51

Wolves

51.4

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

48

Brighton

49.5

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

46

Brentford

47.7

-7

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

47.7

+4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Aston Villa

46.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Everton

37.1

-22

14%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Burnley

36.6

-18

29%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Leeds

36.0

-36

57%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23

Watford

23.3

-44

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22

Norwich

22.9

-57

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Aston Villa (58%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	100%	48%	48%
Liverpool	< 1%	52%	52%
Southampton vs Liverpool (14.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	< 1%	< 1%	17%
Man City	100%	>99.99%	83%
Liverpool vs Wolves (7.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	14%	< 1%	< 1%
Man City	86%	100%	100%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
93	79%	79%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	79%	< 1%	-	52%	52%	21%
91	92%	13%	48%	52%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Arsenal (51%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	16%	32%	80%
Tottenham	84%	68%	21%
Norwich vs Tottenham (29.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	19%	49%	73%
Arsenal	81%	51%	27%
Arsenal vs Everton (28.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	60%	19%	10%
Tottenham	40%	81%	90%

	Tottenham			Arsenal
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
71	53%	53%	73%	27%	< 1%	-
70	53%	< 1%	-	51%	24%	47%
69	76%	23%	49%	81%	30%	24%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs West Ham (87.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	100%	100%	36%
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	64%
Crystal Palace vs Man United (33.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	35%	34%	< 1%
Man United	65%	66%	100%

	Man United			Arsenal			Tottenham			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	36%	36%	100%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	36%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	60%	24%	66%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	34%	34%	64%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	West Ham			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
59	34%	34%	100%	60%	24%	100%
58	34%	< 1%	-	100%	40%	100%
57	59%	24%	100%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Brentford vs Leeds (52.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	16%	51%	86%
Everton	100%	81%	64%
Burnley	84%	68%	50%
Burnley vs Newcastle (35.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	93%	76%	35%
Leeds	26%	38%	72%
Aston Villa vs Burnley (21.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	54%	84%	95.7%
Leeds	57%	32%	23%
Everton vs Crystal Palace (17%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	>99.99%	86%	68%
Burnley	64%	72%	79%
Leeds	36%	42%	52%
Arsenal vs Everton (4.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	82%	90%	100%
Burnley	73%	69%	64%
Leeds	45%	40%	36%

	Leeds			Burnley			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
38	27%	27%	86%	27%	16%	100%	50%	33%	>99.99%
37	27%	< 1%	-	59%	31%	86%	54%	4.3%	85%
36	50%	23%	51%	64%	5%	85%	77%	23%	83%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Newcastle	36%	24%	40%	Arsenal
Southampton	16%	19%	65%	Liverpool
Everton	42%	24%	34%	Crystal Palace
Aston Villa	53%	23%	25%	Burnley
Chelsea	64%	20%	17%	Leicester
Crystal Palace	40%	24%	36%	Man United
Arsenal	68%	18%	14%	Everton
Chelsea	80%	13%	7%	Watford
Leicester	59%	21%	20%	Southampton
Brentford	50%	23%	27%	Leeds
Burnley	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle
Brighton	41%	24%	34%	West Ham
Liverpool	80%	13%	7%	Wolves
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Aston Villa
Norwich	24%	23%	53%	Tottenham