PL: Spurs with 42% on a CL spot after thrashing NLD

 Arsenal clinch CL spot if they take as many points as Tottenham in the last two matches. The probability for Tottenham is 34%, 25% and 24% for 6p, 4p, and 3p, respectively. The same numbers for Arsenal are 27%, 24% and 30%, which in total translates 42% for Tottenham.

Tottenham have slightly easier schedule with Burnley home and Norwhich away, while Arsenal end with Newcastle away and Everton at home.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

89

Man City

93.3

+75

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

94%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Liverpool

90.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

70

Chelsea

74.6

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.89%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.89%

66

Arsenal

69.7

+15

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

58%

< 1%

< 1%

42%

58%

65

Tottenham

68.9

+23

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

42%

< 1%

< 1%

58%

42%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

100%

87%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

13%

87%

< 1%

52

West Ham

55.6

+9

< 1%

86%

13%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

73%

13%

< 1%

50

Wolves

52.5

-3

< 1%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Leicester

51.3

-3

< 1%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Brighton

49.6

-5

< 1%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

47.8

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Aston Villa

46.8

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Brentford

45.9

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Everton

38.7

-21

24%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Burnley

38.3

-17

30%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

38.1

-34

45%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22

Watford

24.2

-42

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

22.6

-58

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Arsenal (37%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	31%	50%	86%
Tottenham	69%	50%	14%
Tottenham vs Burnley (18.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	55%	31%	11%
Arsenal	46%	69%	89%

	Arsenal			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
72	27%	27%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	27%	< 1%	-	34%	34%	73%
70	51%	24%	66%	34%	< 1%	-
69	81%	30%	41%	59%	25%	49%
68	85%	4.4%	17%	83%	24%	19%
67	95.1%	10%	13%	87%	4.5%	15%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points