PL: City 99.97% clinch league if they win against West Ham

City have 99.97% chance on the league title if they win against West Ham on Sunday.

 Arsenal clinch CL if they beat Tottenham; 92% if they draw, and 58% if they lose.

Simulated points for winner: 92 - 95
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 39

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

89

Man City

93.3

+75

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

94%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Liverpool

90.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

70

Chelsea

74.6

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.95%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.95%

66

Arsenal

70.8

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

79%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

79%

62

Tottenham

67.5

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

21%

< 1%

< 1%

79%

21%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

100%

87%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

13%

87%

< 1%

52

West Ham

55.6

+9

< 1%

86%

13%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

73%

13%

< 1%

50

Wolves

52.5

-3

< 1%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Leicester

51.3

-3

< 1%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

5%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Brighton

49.6

-5

< 1%

1.3%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.3%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

47.8

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Aston Villa

46.8

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Brentford

45.9

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

35

Everton

38.7

-21

24%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Burnley

38.3

-17

30%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

38.1

-34

45%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22

Watford

24.2

-42

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

22.6

-58

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Man City (12.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	13%	11%	< 1%
Man City	87%	89%	99.97%
Southampton vs Liverpool (4.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	< 1%	1.5%	8%
Man City	>99.99%	98.5%	92%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	42%	42%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	42%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	67%	25%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	90%	23%	99.7%	52%	52%	10%
91	93%	3.0%	48%	52%	< 1%	-
90	98.1%	5%	48%	76%	24%	1.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (40.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	42%	8%	< 1%
Arsenal	58%	92%	100%
Newcastle vs Arsenal (14.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	65%	75%	93%
Tottenham	35%	25%	7%
Tottenham vs Burnley (8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	28%	14%	5%
Arsenal	73%	86%	95%

	Arsenal			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	8%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	22%	14%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	44%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	51%	7%	100%	15%	15%	73%
70	72%	21%	82%	15%	< 1%	-
69	88%	16%	49%	35%	19%	36%
68	92%	4.3%	44%	56%	21%	10%
67	97.8%	6%	19%	64%	8%	7%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
West Ham vs Man City (17.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	35%	8%	5%
Man United	65%	92%	95%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	36%	36%	96.9%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	3.1%	3.1%	100%
60	36%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	3.1%	< 1%	-
59	60%	24%	90%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	64%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
West Ham vs Man City (12.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	98.5%	93%	78%
Wolves	< 1%	3.3%	11%
Leicester	< 1%	3.2%	8%
Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%
Chelsea vs Leicester (6.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	1.5%	6%	20%
West Ham	89%	86%	75%
Watford vs Leicester (4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	< 1%	2.0%	10%
West Ham	89%	88%	83%
Wolves vs Norwich (3.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	10%	1.5%	< 1%
West Ham	84%	90%	91%
Leeds vs Brighton (2.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%
Wolves	7%	7%	5%

	West Ham			Man United			Wolves			Leicester			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	3.1%	3.1%	100%	36%	36%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	3.1%	< 1%	-	36%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	10%	7%	100%	60%	24%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	24%	14%	100%	100%	40%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	29%	5%	100%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	50%	20%	99.98%	100%	< 1%	-	4.8%	4.8%	49%	4.6%	4.6%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	70%	20%	91%	100%	< 1%	-	4.8%	< 1%	-	4.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	78%	7%	91%	100%	< 1%	-	15%	10%	20%	14%	9%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	-
53	92%	14%	71%	100%	< 1%	-	67%	53%	4.5%	36%	22%	5%	12%	12%	10%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leeds vs Brighton (17.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	75%	45%	32%
Everton	65%	81%	87%
Burnley	61%	74%	81%
Everton vs Brentford (13.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	92%	69%	56%
Leeds	46%	59%	65%
Burnley	63%	73%	79%
Everton vs Crystal Palace (13%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	92%	71%	58%
Leeds	46%	58%	64%
Burnley	63%	72%	78%
Aston Villa vs Burnley (9.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	59%	73%	91%
Leeds	62%	52%	42%
Everton	79%	75%	68%
Tottenham vs Burnley (6.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	62%	76%	92%
Leeds	60%	51%	42%
Everton	78%	74%	68%

	Leeds			Burnley			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
43	4.8%	4.8%	99.9%	4.6%	3.4%	100%	2.7%	< 1%	-
42	4.8%	< 1%	-	13%	8%	99.94%	9%	6%	99.8%
41	14%	10%	97.4%	16%	3.5%	99.8%	26%	17%	99.7%
40	31%	17%	90%	32%	16%	97.6%	31%	4.6%	97.4%
39	37%	6%	74%	49%	18%	90%	52%	22%	86%
38	58%	21%	57%	58%	9%	80%	74%	22%	78%
37	77%	19%	38%	76%	18%	56%	81%	7%	57%
36	84%	7%	18%	89%	12%	36%	93%	12%	33%
35	94%	11%	7%	93%	4.5%	22%	100%	7%	22%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	46%	24%	31%	Arsenal
Tottenham	63%	20%	17%	Burnley
Aston Villa	48%	24%	29%	Crystal Palace
Leeds	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
West Ham	24%	23%	53%	Man City
Wolves	65%	19%	16%	Norwich
Watford	29%	24%	47%	Leicester
Everton	46%	24%	30%	Brentford
Newcastle	35%	24%	40%	Arsenal
Southampton	16%	19%	66%	Liverpool
Everton	42%	24%	34%	Crystal Palace
Aston Villa	53%	23%	25%	Burnley
Chelsea	64%	20%	17%	Leicester