PL: Liverpool with 18% on the title

Liverpool have 30% chance if they win both remaining matches. City have 94% chance if they win tomorrow against Wolves.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 92 - 95
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

86

Man City

92.3

+72

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

82%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

86

Liverpool

90.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

18%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Chelsea

73.4

+42

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.12%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.12%

66

Arsenal

70.8

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

79%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

79%

62

Tottenham

67.5

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

22%

< 1%

< 1%

78%

22%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

99.89%

86%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

13%

86%

< 1%

52

West Ham

55.6

+9

< 1%

80%

13%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

67%

13%

< 1%

50

Wolves

53.3

+0

< 1%

16%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Leicester

50.6

-4

< 1%

3.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3.0%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Brighton

49.6

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

47.8

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Aston Villa

46.9

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Brentford

45.9

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

1.7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

39.1

-32

34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Everton

39.1

-21

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Burnley

38.3

-17

36%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

24.6

-41

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

23.2

-56

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Wolves vs Man City (22.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	41%	34%	6%
Man City	59%	66%	94%
West Ham vs Man City (21%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	37%	30%	5%
Man City	63%	70%	95%
Southampton vs Liverpool (10.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	2.7%	8%	25%
Man City	97.3%	92%	75%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	25%	25%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	25%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	49%	24%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	71%	22%	98.1%	52%	52%	30%
91	78%	7%	48%	52%	< 1%	-
90	91%	12%	48%	76%	23%	9%
89	96.7%	6%	24%	93%	17%	3.3%
88	98.3%	1.6%	7%	95.4%	2.4%	1.6%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (40.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	43%	8%	< 1%
Arsenal	58%	92%	100%
Newcastle vs Arsenal (14.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	65%	75%	94%
Tottenham	35%	26%	8%
Tottenham vs Burnley (8.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	28%	15%	5%
Arsenal	73%	85%	95%

	Arsenal			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	8%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	22%	14%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	44%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	51%	7%	100%	15%	15%	75%
70	72%	21%	83%	15%	< 1%	-
69	88%	16%	49%	35%	19%	38%
68	92%	4.3%	44%	56%	21%	10%
67	97.7%	6%	19%	64%	8%	8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
West Ham vs Man City (16.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	35%	8%	5%
Man United	65%	91%	94%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	36%	36%	97.0%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	3.1%	3.1%	100%
60	36%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	3.1%	< 1%	-
59	60%	24%	89%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	64%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Man City (14.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	43%	18%	8%
West Ham	56%	79%	87%
West Ham vs Man City (13.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	96.0%	86%	69%
Wolves	3.8%	12%	24%
Leicester	< 1%	1.9%	4.6%
Brighton	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%
Wolves vs Norwich (7.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	23%	6%	2.7%
West Ham	74%	88%	91%
Chelsea vs Leicester (3.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	< 1%	3.0%	12%
West Ham	81%	80%	73%
Watford vs Leicester (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	< 1%	1.0%	6%
West Ham	81%	81%	78%

	West Ham			Wolves			Man United			Leicester
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	3.1%	3.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	36%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	3.1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	10%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	60%	24%	99.91%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	24%	14%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	40%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	29%	5%	99.1%	3.7%	2.8%	71%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	50%	20%	96.2%	17%	13%	50%	100%	< 1%	-	3.2%	3.2%	44%
55	70%	20%	81%	19%	2.5%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	3.2%	< 1%	-
54	78%	7%	78%	39%	20%	21%	100%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	15%
53	91%	14%	53%	74%	35%	6%	100%	< 1%	-	26%	16%	3.0%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leeds vs Brighton (12.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	82%	59%	46%
Burnley	56%	67%	73%
Everton	65%	75%	81%
Everton vs Brentford (11.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	87%	66%	53%
Burnley	56%	67%	73%
Leeds	59%	68%	74%
Everton vs Crystal Palace (11.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	88%	68%	55%
Burnley	55%	66%	73%
Leeds	59%	67%	73%
Watford vs Everton (10.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	57%	70%	89%
Burnley	71%	65%	55%
Leeds	72%	67%	59%
Aston Villa vs Burnley (10%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	52%	67%	86%
Leeds	72%	64%	54%
Everton	77%	71%	63%
Southampton	99.2%	98.1%	96.3%
Leeds vs Chelsea (9.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	87%	67%	54%
Burnley	54%	63%	69%
Everton	63%	71%	77%
Southampton	96.6%	98.2%	99.2%
Tottenham vs Burnley (7.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	55%	70%	88%
Leeds	70%	63%	53%
Everton	75%	70%	63%
Southampton	99.0%	97.8%	96.2%

	Burnley			Leeds			Everton			Southampton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
45	1.1%	1.1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.1%	< 1%	-
44	1.1%	< 1%	-	4.9%	3.7%	100%	4.0%	3.0%	100%	10%	7%	100%
43	4.5%	3.4%	99.99%	12%	7%	99.9%	11%	7%	99.98%	32%	22%	99.98%
42	12%	8%	99.5%	16%	3.9%	99.3%	15%	3.2%	99.6%	37%	4.0%	99.8%
41	16%	3.5%	99.1%	30%	14%	97.1%	29%	15%	99.0%	61%	25%	99.3%
40	31%	15%	94%	45%	15%	86%	45%	16%	94%	100%	39%	96.0%
39	49%	18%	79%	55%	10%	73%	54%	9%	79%	100%	< 1%	-
38	58%	9%	70%	72%	18%	58%	73%	18%	68%	100%	< 1%	-
37	76%	18%	47%	85%	12%	35%	85%	13%	46%	100%	< 1%	-
36	89%	12%	27%	91%	6%	20%	91%	6%	27%	100%	< 1%	-
35	93%	4.6%	18%	97.2%	7%	9%	97.3%	6%	16%	100%	< 1%	-
34	98.1%	5%	5%	100%	2.8%	1.9%	100%	2.7%	5%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leeds	27%	23%	50%	Chelsea
Leicester	69%	18%	13%	Norwich
Watford	39%	24%	37%	Everton
Wolves	19%	21%	61%	Man City
Tottenham	46%	24%	31%	Arsenal
Tottenham	63%	20%	17%	Burnley
Aston Villa	48%	24%	29%	Crystal Palace
Leeds	46%	24%	30%	Brighton
West Ham	24%	23%	53%	Man City
Wolves	65%	19%	16%	Norwich
Watford	29%	24%	47%	Leicester
Everton	46%	24%	30%	Brentford
Newcastle	36%	24%	40%	Arsenal
Southampton	16%	19%	66%	Liverpool
Everton	42%	24%	34%	Crystal Palace
Aston Villa	53%	23%	24%	Burnley
Chelsea	64%	19%	17%	Leicester