PL: Tight 3-horse race at the bottom

Everton with a win at Leicester and the relegation race is now a close race between Burnley (36%), Leeds (34%), and Everton (28%). City has a 2.6 lead against Liverpool in expected points or 87% chance to win the league. Arsenal has a 3.3 lead in expected points and Tottenham need to beat them in NLD to turn it into a 50-50 race again.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.70%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	100%	1.5%
Seventh team	100%	10%	8%
Eighth team	15%	6%	1.8%

Simulated points for winner: 92 - 95
Simulated points for fourth: 70 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 38 - 40

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

86

Man City

92.3

+72

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

87%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

83

Liverpool

89.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

13%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Chelsea

73.4

+42

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.13%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.13%

66

Arsenal

70.8

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

79%

< 1%

< 1%

21%

79%

62

Tottenham

67.5

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

22%

< 1%

< 1%

78%

22%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

99.89%

86%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

88%

< 1%

52

West Ham

55.6

+9

< 1%

79%

13%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

59%

12%

11%

50

Wolves

53.3

+0

< 1%

16%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

23%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Leicester

50.6

-4

< 1%

3.0%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3.3%

25%

< 1%

47

Brighton

49.6

-5

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.4%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

47.8

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Aston Villa

47.6

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Brentford

45.9

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

1.8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

39.1

-32

34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Everton

39.1

-21

28%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Burnley

38.3

-17

36%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

24.6

-41

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

23.2

-56

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Wolves vs Man City (15.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	32%	23%	4.5%
Man City	68%	77%	95.5%
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (8.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	2.0%	6%	19%
Man City	98.0%	94%	81%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	25%	25%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	25%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	49%	24%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	71%	22%	96.9%	32%	32%	31%
91	78%	7%	68%	32%	< 1%	-
90	91%	13%	67%	57%	25%	10%
89	96.7%	6%	42%	77%	20%	3.7%
88	98.3%	1.6%	23%	83%	6%	1.8%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (40.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	43%	8%	< 1%
Arsenal	58%	92%	100%

	Arsenal			Tottenham			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	8%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	22%	14%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	44%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	51%	7%	100%	15%	15%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	72%	21%	83%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	88%	16%	49%	35%	19%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	92%	4.3%	44%	56%	21%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	97.7%	6%	19%	64%	8%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	36%	36%	97.3%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	3.1%	3.1%	100%
60	36%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	3.1%	< 1%	-
59	60%	24%	90%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	68%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Man City (12.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	49%	25%	15%
West Ham	61%	81%	89%

	West Ham			Wolves			Man United			Leicester			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	3.1%	3.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	36%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	3.1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	10%	7%	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	60%	24%	99.91%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	24%	14%	99.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	40%	99.80%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	29%	5%	99.2%	3.8%	2.8%	74%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	50%	20%	96.6%	17%	13%	56%	100%	< 1%	-	3.2%	3.2%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	70%	20%	83%	19%	2.5%	37%	100%	< 1%	-	3.2%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	78%	7%	81%	39%	20%	30%	100%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	-
53	92%	14%	59%	74%	35%	15%	100%	< 1%	-	26%	16%	30%	12%	12%	10%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Watford vs Everton (10.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	58%	70%	89%
Burnley	71%	65%	55%
Leeds	72%	67%	59%
Leeds vs Chelsea (9.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	87%	67%	54%
Burnley	54%	63%	69%
Everton	63%	71%	77%
Southampton	96.5%	98.2%	99.2%

	Burnley			Leeds			Everton			Southampton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
45	1.2%	1.2%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.1%	< 1%	-
44	1.2%	< 1%	-	5.0%	3.7%	>99.99%	4.0%	3.0%	100%	10%	7%	100%
43	4.6%	3.4%	>99.99%	12%	7%	99.8%	11%	7%	99.98%	33%	22%	99.98%
42	12%	8%	99.5%	16%	3.9%	99.3%	15%	3.2%	99.5%	37%	4.0%	99.8%
41	16%	3.5%	99.2%	30%	14%	97.2%	29%	15%	99.0%	61%	25%	99.3%
40	31%	16%	94%	45%	15%	86%	45%	16%	94%	100%	39%	95.9%
39	49%	18%	79%	55%	10%	73%	54%	10%	79%	100%	< 1%	-
38	58%	9%	70%	72%	18%	58%	73%	18%	68%	100%	< 1%	-
37	76%	18%	47%	85%	12%	35%	85%	13%	46%	100%	< 1%	-
36	89%	12%	27%	91%	6%	19%	91%	6%	26%	100%	< 1%	-
35	93%	4.5%	18%	97.2%	7%	9%	97.3%	6%	16%	100%	< 1%	-
34	98.1%	5.0%	5%	100%	2.8%	2.0%	100%	2.7%	5%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	19%	20%	61%	Liverpool
Leeds	27%	23%	50%	Chelsea
Leicester	69%	18%	13%	Norwich
Watford	39%	24%	37%	Everton
Wolves	19%	21%	61%	Man City
Tottenham	46%	24%	31%	Arsenal