PL: One all at Anfield

Two points advantage for Man City in average points and if Man City beat Newcastle today, they win the league with 84% probability.

Similarly, Arsenal have 2.5 advantage in average points, but the difference is that Tottenham will play Arsenal and can kill much of that gap with a win in NLD. If Tottenham win their remaining matches, they have 84% on a CL spot according to our simulations.

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 91 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

83

Man City

91.8

+69

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

79%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

83

Liverpool

89.7

+64

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

21%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

67

Chelsea

73.4

+42

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.34%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.34%

63

Arsenal

70.0

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

71%

< 1%

< 1%

29%

71%

62

Tottenham

67.5

+22

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

30%

< 1%

< 1%

70%

30%

58

Man United

59.3

+2

< 1%

99.81%

91%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

8%

92%

< 1%

49

West Ham

54.3

+6

< 1%

55%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

44%

6%

11%

50

Wolves

53.3

+0

< 1%

23%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

28%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Leicester

52.6

-2

< 1%

20%

1.1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

16%

26%

< 1%

47

Brighton

49.6

-5

< 1%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.7%

< 1%

< 1%

44

Crystal Palace

47.8

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

1.0%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Aston Villa

47.6

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Brentford

45.9

-9

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.8

-18

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

41.5

-21

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

39.7

-32

18%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Burnley

38.3

-17

25%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Everton

36.9

-23

56%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

24.6

-41

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

24.2

-53

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Wolves vs Man City (14.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	43%	32%	11%
Man City	57%	68%	89%
Man City vs Newcastle (10.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	16%	39%	51%
Man City	84%	61%	49%
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (10.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	6%	12%	29%
Man City	94%	88%	71%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	20%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	20%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
93	42%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
92	61%	19%	91%	32%	32%	44%
91	70%	9%	68%	32%	< 1%	-
90	85%	15%	62%	57%	25%	19%
89	92%	8%	38%	77%	20%	10%
88	95.7%	3.5%	22%	83%	6%	5.0%
87	98.5%	2.9%	14%	93%	10%	2.1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Arsenal (44.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	55%	18%	2.2%
Arsenal	46%	83%	97.9%
Arsenal vs Leeds (9.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	79%	57%	49%
Tottenham	22%	43%	51%

	Arsenal			Tottenham			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	6%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	16%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	32%	16%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	39%	7%	100%	15%	15%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	59%	20%	84%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	74%	15%	55%	35%	19%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	82%	8%	45%	56%	21%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	92%	10%	23%	64%	8%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	96.7%	4.7%	7%	81%	17%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	98.4%	1.7%	4%	92%	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Norwich vs West Ham (3.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	97.2%	96.6%	87%
West Ham	12%	13%	23%

	Man United			Tottenham			Arsenal			Leicester			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	36%	36%	98.6%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.6%	1.6%	100%
60	36%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.6%	< 1%	-
59	60%	24%	92%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.9%	1.9%	69%	6%	4.3%	68%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Wolves vs Man City (11.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	58%	32%	19%
West Ham	44%	61%	68%
Norwich vs West Ham (11%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	42%	56%	77%
Wolves	42%	33%	20%
Leicester	48%	44%	38%
Leicester vs Everton (2.8%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	48%	35%	30%
West Ham	59%	66%	68%
Wolves	26%	32%	34%
Leicester vs Norwich (2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	46%	34%	30%
Wolves	27%	33%	34%
West Ham	60%	66%	68%

	West Ham			Wolves			Leicester			Man United			Brighton			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	1.6%	1.6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	36%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	1.6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	36%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	6%	4.3%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	98%	1.9%	1.9%	98.4%	60%	24%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	13%	8%	98.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.9%	< 1%	-	100%	40%	99.67%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	18%	4.3%	97.5%	3.7%	2.8%	82%	7%	5.0%	86%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	33%	15%	92%	17%	13%	66%	17%	10%	72%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	48%	15%	75%	19%	2.5%	51%	22%	4.7%	61%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	58%	10%	70%	39%	20%	39%	39%	17%	49%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
53	75%	17%	47%	74%	35%	20%	53%	14%	34%	100%	< 1%	-	12%	12%	12%	3.9%	3.9%	21%
52	87%	12%	21%	79%	5%	11%	63%	10%	28%	100%	< 1%	-	12%	< 1%	-	3.9%	< 1%	-
51	92%	5%	18%	92%	13%	5%	78%	15%	26%	100%	< 1%	-	29%	17%	1.1%	12%	8%	2.1%
50	97.7%	6%	12%	100%	8%	1.5%	87%	9%	26%	100%	< 1%	-	59%	29%	< 1%	27%	15%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Watford vs Everton (12.7%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	28%	39%	64%
Burnley	84%	78%	64%
Leeds	88%	84%	74%
Leicester vs Everton (9.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	34%	46%	70%
Burnley	81%	74%	61%
Leeds	85%	81%	72%
Leeds vs Chelsea (5.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	95%	83%	74%
Everton	36%	42%	48%
Burnley	71%	75%	78%
Arsenal vs Leeds (3.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	78%	86%	95.7%
Everton	46%	41%	36%
Burnley	77%	74%	71%

	Everton			Burnley			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
43	3.0%	2.0%	99.9%	4.5%	3.4%	>99.99%	18%	8%	99.94%
42	4.3%	1.3%	99.4%	12%	8%	99.8%	24%	7%	99.8%
41	10%	6%	98.5%	16%	3.5%	99.6%	39%	15%	99.0%
40	19%	8%	92%	32%	16%	97.3%	53%	13%	94%
39	25%	7%	76%	49%	18%	89%	63%	11%	87%
38	41%	16%	63%	58%	9%	83%	78%	15%	76%
37	55%	14%	42%	76%	18%	66%	88%	10%	58%
36	65%	11%	24%	89%	12%	50%	93%	5%	42%
35	80%	15%	13%	93%	4.6%	38%	98.1%	4.9%	25%
34	89%	9%	4.4%	98.1%	4.9%	20%	100%	1.9%	13%
33	94%	4.7%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	10%	100%	< 1%	-
32	98.4%	4.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Arsenal	66%	19%	15%	Leeds
Leicester	60%	21%	20%	Everton
Norwich	27%	23%	50%	West Ham
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Newcastle
Aston Villa	19%	20%	61%	Liverpool
Leeds	27%	23%	50%	Chelsea
Leicester	69%	18%	13%	Norwich
Watford	39%	24%	37%	Everton
Wolves	19%	21%	61%	Man City
Tottenham	46%	24%	31%	Arsenal