PL: Everton 40% to survive after upset against Chelsea

Everton with a big win over Chelsea gives them 40% to survive. They have it in their own hands, but if they take seven points in the last five games they have good (>50%) chances. They are likely to need 6-9 points to clinch a new contract.

Arsenal's win over West Ham means Arsenal and Tottenham have practically clinched at least a spot in EL. Both are obviously hoping for more and for that 69-72 are likely to be needed.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.9 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	100%
Fifth team	100%	100%	< 1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	99.89%
League cup winners	100%	100%	100%
Sixth team	100%	100%	< 1%
Seventh team	100%	13%	8%
Eighth team	23%	11%	3.2%

Simulated points for winner: 91 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 69 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

83

Man City

91.5

+68

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

62%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

82

Liverpool

90.7

+65

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

38%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

66

Chelsea

74.9

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

99.73%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.73%

63

Arsenal

70.3

+17

< 1%

100%

100%

99.92%

75%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

75%

61

Tottenham

67.0

+21

< 1%

100%

>99.99%

98.9%

25%

< 1%

< 1%

75%

25%

55

Man United

60.3

+5

< 1%

99.10%

91%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

7%

92%

< 1%

49

West Ham

54.7

+6

< 1%

63%

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

50%

6%

13%

49

Wolves

53.1

-1

< 1%

21%

1.2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

27%

1.3%

< 1%

44

Leicester

52.3

-3

< 1%

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

14%

28%

< 1%

44

Brighton

47.5

-10

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

41

Crystal Palace

46.6

+3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Aston Villa

46.2

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

43

Newcastle

45.7

-19

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Brentford

44.7

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

40

Southampton

42.8

-18

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34

Leeds

39.7

-32

22%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

33

Burnley

39.5

-16

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

31

Everton

36.9

-23

60%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Watford

25.7

-41

>99.99%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Norwich

24.2

-53

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Important matches for title race
Liverpool vs Tottenham (10.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Liverpool	46%	22%	15%
Man City	54%	78%	85%
Man City vs Newcastle (8.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man City	68%	43%	33%
Liverpool	32%	57%	67%

	Man City			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
95	16%	16%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
94	16%	< 1%	-	19%	19%	84%
93	37%	20%	81%	19%	< 1%	-
92	56%	20%	74%	41%	22%	50%
91	65%	9%	55%	59%	18%	37%
90	81%	16%	39%	68%	9%	23%
89	90%	9%	28%	83%	15%	12%
88	94%	4.2%	15%	91%	8%	7%
87	98.0%	3.7%	8%	95%	4.0%	3.0%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Arsenal vs Leeds (7.9%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Arsenal	82%	63%	56%
Tottenham	18%	37%	44%
Liverpool vs Tottenham (5.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Tottenham	21%	26%	47%
Arsenal	79%	74%	54%

	Arsenal			Tottenham			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
75	7%	7%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
74	7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
73	20%	13%	100%	1.8%	1.8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
72	37%	17%	97.9%	1.8%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
71	45%	8%	97.2%	6%	4.7%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	-
70	64%	20%	79%	19%	13%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-
69	78%	14%	66%	24%	4.1%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	-
68	85%	7%	51%	43%	19%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	-
67	94%	8%	26%	61%	18%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	97.5%	3.7%	15%	70%	9%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	98.9%	1.3%	7%	85%	15%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Man United vs Brentford (5.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	95.9%	86%	76%
West Ham	17%	23%	30%
Wolves	< 1%	2.1%	4.4%
Brighton vs Man United (5.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	83%	92%	97.6%
West Ham	26%	20%	15%
Wolves	2.8%	1.2%	< 1%
Norwich vs West Ham (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Man United	96.2%	95%	88%
West Ham	15%	16%	23%

	Man United			Tottenham			Leicester			Arsenal			West Ham			Wolves
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
64	13%	13%	100%	93%	8%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	99.76%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	13%	< 1%	-	96.2%	3.1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	30%	18%	100%	99.04%	2.9%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	53%	22%	98.0%	100%	< 1%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	2.3%	2.3%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	65%
60	60%	8%	97.9%	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	2.3%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	79%	19%	91%	100%	< 1%	-	1.4%	1.4%	50%	100%	< 1%	-	8%	6%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	36%
58	91%	12%	81%	100%	< 1%	-	1.4%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	17%	9%	31%	4.0%	3.0%	16%
57	95%	3.4%	73%	100%	< 1%	-	5%	3.9%	31%	100%	< 1%	-	22%	5%	21%	5%	1.1%	7%
56	98.6%	3.8%	52%	100%	< 1%	-	14%	9%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	39%	17%	18%	13%	8%	2.9%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Norwich vs West Ham (9.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
West Ham	51%	62%	82%
Wolves	40%	33%	20%
Leicester	47%	44%	38%
Chelsea vs Wolves (6.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Wolves	22%	33%	55%
West Ham	74%	67%	52%
Leicester vs Everton (2.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leicester	47%	36%	32%
West Ham	67%	73%	75%
Wolves	26%	31%	32%

	West Ham			Wolves			Leicester			Man United
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	2.3%	2.3%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-	53%	22%	>99.99%
60	2.3%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	60%	8%	>99.99%
59	8%	6%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	1.4%	1.4%	96%	79%	19%	99.90%
58	17%	9%	98.6%	4.0%	3.0%	87%	1.4%	< 1%	-	91%	12%	99.3%
57	22%	5%	95.8%	5%	1.1%	81%	5%	3.9%	85%	95%	3.4%	98.3%
56	39%	17%	92%	13%	8%	64%	14%	9%	71%	98.6%	3.8%	92%
55	54%	15%	80%	29%	15%	47%	18%	4.0%	59%	100%	1.4%	81%
54	64%	10%	66%	36%	7%	37%	35%	16%	49%	100%	< 1%	-
53	80%	16%	53%	58%	22%	21%	49%	14%	38%	100%	< 1%	-
52	90%	10%	34%	82%	24%	12%	59%	10%	32%	100%	< 1%	-
51	94%	4.4%	21%	87%	5%	8%	75%	16%	29%	100%	< 1%	-
50	98.4%	4.4%	17%	95.9%	9%	4.0%	85%	10%	28%	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Everton (9.1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Everton	30%	41%	65%
Leeds	83%	77%	65%
Burnley	87%	82%	73%
Burnley vs Aston Villa (6.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Burnley	93%	82%	72%
Everton	33%	40%	46%
Leeds	74%	79%	82%
Arsenal vs Leeds (3.4%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Leeds	74%	83%	94%
Everton	43%	36%	29%

	Everton			Leeds			Burnley
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
43	3.1%	2.1%	99.8%	17%	7%	99.9%	15%	8%	>99.99%
42	4.3%	1.3%	98.8%	23%	6%	99.6%	25%	10%	99.8%
41	11%	6%	95.8%	38%	15%	97.4%	34%	8%	99.5%
40	19%	8%	84%	52%	14%	90%	50%	17%	96.5%
39	26%	7%	68%	62%	11%	83%	64%	14%	89%
38	42%	16%	54%	78%	15%	69%	74%	10%	83%
37	56%	14%	34%	88%	10%	52%	86%	12%	66%
36	67%	10%	19%	93%	5%	38%	93%	7%	49%
35	81%	15%	11%	98.1%	5%	22%	96.4%	3.3%	37%
34	90%	9%	3.2%	100%	1.9%	11%	99.12%	2.7%	19%
33	94%	4.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	9%
32	98.6%	4.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	70%	17%	13%	Brentford
Chelsea	69%	17%	13%	Wolves
Burnley	42%	24%	34%	Aston Villa
Brentford	43%	24%	32%	Southampton
Crystal Palace	62%	20%	18%	Watford
Brighton	31%	24%	45%	Man United
Liverpool	71%	17%	12%	Tottenham
Arsenal	69%	18%	13%	Leeds
Leicester	59%	21%	20%	Everton
Norwich	26%	23%	51%	West Ham
Man City	79%	13%	8%	Newcastle