Saturday, April 30, 2022

PL: Burnley with 91% survival

Burnley with 91% chance to survive after having flipped around a 0-1 loss to a 2-1 victory in the last ten minutes against Watford.

Hot Teams
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.9 more than expected
Brentford: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Watford: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected


Simulated points for winner: 91 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40


Average Simulated
Season		Probabilities
PtsTeamPtsGDRelegatedTop 7Top 6Top 5Top 4Win LeagueECLELCL
83Man City91.5+68< 1%100%100%100%100%62%< 1%< 1%100%
82Liverpool90.7+65< 1%100%100%100%100%38%< 1%< 1%100%
66Chelsea76.8+46< 1%100%100%100%99.97%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.97%
60Arsenal68.6+16< 1%>99.99%99.94%99.01%69%< 1%< 1%31%69%
58Tottenham65.8+19< 1%99.99%99.64%95.2%31%< 1%< 1%69%31%
55Man United60.3+5< 1%97.9%81%4.9%< 1%< 1%16%83%< 1%
49West Ham56.2+7< 1%71%17%< 1%< 1%< 1%50%14%14%
44Leicester53.2-2< 1%18%2.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%15%29%< 1%
49Wolves53.1-1< 1%12%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%18%1.0%< 1%
44Brighton47.5-10< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
41Crystal Palace46.6+3< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Aston Villa46.2-4< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
43Newcastle45.7-19< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Brentford44.7-11< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
40Southampton42.8-18< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
34Leeds39.7-3212%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
33Burnley39.5-169%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
28Everton34.8-2579%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Watford25.7-4199.99%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
21Norwich24.2-53100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%


Important matches for title race
Liverpool vs Tottenham (10.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Liverpool46%22%15%
Man City54%78%85%
Man City vs Newcastle (8.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man City68%42%32%
Liverpool32%58%68%



Man CityLiverpool
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
9516%16%100%< 1%< 1%-
9416%< 1%-19%19%84%
9337%20%81%19%< 1%-
9256%19%74%41%22%50%
9165%9%55%59%18%37%
9081%16%38%68%9%23%
8990%9%28%83%15%12%
8894%4.2%15%91%8%7%
8798.0%3.7%8%95%4.0%2.8%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Leicester (7.8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham41%23%17%
Arsenal60%77%83%
West Ham vs Arsenal (7.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal59%67%83%
Tottenham41%33%17%
Arsenal vs Leeds (6.5%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Arsenal76%58%50%
Tottenham24%42%50%
Liverpool vs Tottenham (4.5%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Tottenham27%34%52%
Arsenal73%66%48%



ArsenalTottenhamWest Ham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
752.4%2.4%100%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
742.4%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
738%6%100%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%-
7217%9%99.2%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
7123%6%98.8%4.0%3.0%93%< 1%< 1%-
7039%16%91%11%7%88%< 1%< 1%-
6953%14%83%15%3.3%73%< 1%< 1%-
6863%10%72%29%14%55%< 1%< 1%-
6778%15%51%43%14%38%< 1%< 1%-
6687%9%37%53%10%24%< 1%< 1%-
6592%5%23%69%17%12%< 1%< 1%-
6496.7%4.7%11%80%11%6%< 1%< 1%15%
6398.7%2.0%4%87%7%1.8%< 1%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Man United (7.4%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United70%80%93%
West Ham37%30%21%
Wolves2.2%< 1%< 1%
Man United vs Brentford (6.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United89%73%61%
West Ham24%35%43%
Wolves< 1%1.7%3.3%
West Ham vs Arsenal (5.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United74%87%90%
West Ham37%23%19%
Norwich vs West Ham (4.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Man United91%88%76%
West Ham19%22%35%



Man UnitedTottenhamArsenalLeicesterWest HamWolves
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
6413%13%99.4%80%11%>99.99%96.7%4.7%99.9%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%99.9%< 1%< 1%-
6313%< 1%-87%7%99.9%98.7%2.0%99.8%< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-< 1%< 1%-
6230%18%96.8%94%7%99.8%99.46%< 1%99%< 1%< 1%87%3.9%2.9%90%< 1%< 1%-
6153%22%92%97.5%3.2%98.2%99.91%< 1%95%< 1%< 1%-9%4.7%74%< 1%< 1%63%
6060%8%88%98.9%1.4%95%100%< 1%88%1.5%1.2%58%12%3.6%55%< 1%< 1%-
5979%19%76%99.78%< 1%88%100%< 1%-4.4%2.9%47%23%11%47%< 1%< 1%31%
5891%12%64%100%< 1%70%100%< 1%-6%1.9%37%34%11%31%4.0%3.0%13%
5795%3.4%52%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-14%8%31%44%10%20%5%1.1%5%
5698.6%3.9%33%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-24%9%29%60%16%17%13%8%2.0%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Norwich vs West Ham (6.5%)Home WinDrawAway Win
West Ham63%72%87%
Wolves27%22%14%
Leicester49%46%40%
West Ham vs Arsenal (6.3%)Home WinDrawAway Win
West Ham89%75%66%
Wolves14%21%26%
Leicester39%45%48%
Chelsea vs Wolves (4.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Wolves15%22%41%
West Ham80%76%65%
Tottenham vs Leicester (3.1%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Leicester38%44%57%
West Ham81%78%70%
Wolves22%19%15%
Man United98.9%98.4%96.8%
Leicester vs Everton (2.2%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Leicester49%38%34%
West Ham75%81%83%
Wolves18%22%23%
Man United97.9%98.9%99.1%



West HamWolvesMan UnitedLeicester
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
623.9%2.9%100%< 1%< 1%-30%18%>99.99%< 1%< 1%99.7%
619%4.7%99.9%< 1%< 1%97%53%22%99.96%< 1%< 1%-
6012%3.6%99.8%< 1%< 1%-60%8%99.9%1.5%1.2%96%
5923%11%99.2%< 1%< 1%87%79%19%99.3%4.4%2.9%90%
5834%11%96.7%4.0%3.0%73%91%12%97.5%6%1.9%82%
5744%10%93%5%1.1%62%95%3.4%94%14%8%73%
5660%16%86%13%8%45%98.6%3.9%84%24%9%61%
5571%12%74%29%15%31%100%1.4%70%32%8%50%
5481%9%60%35%7%22%100%< 1%-47%16%42%
5390%10%48%58%22%13%100%< 1%-60%12%35%
5295.0%5.0%31%82%24%9%100%< 1%-70%10%31%
5197.6%2.5%20%87%5%6%100%< 1%-82%12%29%
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Important matches for avoiding relegation
Everton vs Chelsea (8%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton40%21%13%
Leeds78%88%92%
Burnley83%91%94%
Leicester vs Everton (7.7%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Everton14%21%41%
Leeds92%88%78%
Burnley94%91%83%
Burnley vs Aston Villa (3.6%)Home WinDrawAway Win
Burnley97.1%91%85%
Everton17%21%25%



EvertonLeedsBurnley
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
421.3%< 1%99%23%6%99.9%25%10%99.95%
413.5%2.3%96%38%15%99.1%34%8%99.9%
407%3.2%85%52%14%96.6%50%17%98.8%
3910%3.6%69%62%11%93%64%14%96.0%
3819%9%55%78%15%86%74%10%93%
3729%9%35%88%10%75%86%12%84%
3638%10%20%93%5%64%93%7%73%
3553%15%11%98.1%5%48%96.4%3.3%62%
3466%12%3.3%100%1.9%35%99.13%2.7%44%
3376%10%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%31%
3287%11%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
3193%6%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
3096.6%3.3%< 1%100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points



Coming Matches
Home
Draw
Away
Everton22%22%56%Chelsea
Tottenham54%22%23%Leicester
West Ham42%24%34%Arsenal
Man United71%17%12%Brentford
Chelsea70%17%13%Wolves
Burnley42%24%34%Aston Villa
Brentford43%24%32%Southampton
Crystal Palace62%20%18%Watford
Brighton31%24%45%Man United
Liverpool71%17%12%Tottenham
Arsenal69%18%13%Leeds
Leicester59%21%20%Everton
Norwich26%23%51%West Ham
Man City79%13%8%Newcastle



 

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