Nations League

With 99% certainty, Spain and Portugal have secured to be sop-seeded. Sweden and Slovenia have missed on Top 2. Turkey, Greece, Georgia, Slovakia, and North Macedonia have clinched a spot in Pot 4. Gibraltar is missing Pot 4 and will be placed in Pot 5. Estonia, Latvia, and Malta have clinched a place in Pot 5 and can avoid bottom seeding group.

Important matches for Euro '24 qualifications

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Finland (2.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Finland	44%	52%	61%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	37%	29%	23%

Iceland vs Israel (1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Iceland	24%	17%	15%
Israel	40%	47%	50%

Romania vs Montenegro (0.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Romania	43%	35%	31%
Montenegro	11%	14%	16%
Finland	52%	54%	55%

Kazakhstan vs Slovakia (0.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Slovakia	37%	43%	48%
Kazakhstan	3.4%	2.2%	1.5%
Greece	56%	54%	52%

Ukraine vs Ireland (0.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Ireland	39%	43%	51%
Ukraine	86%	84%	81%

			Rank			Points
Rank	Group	Country	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	+/-	Pot 5	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1
1	A4	Netherlands	3.4	1	15	11.8	7	16	5				1.5%	98.5%
2	A2	Spain	3.9	1	12	11.3	8	14	3.9				< 1%	99.86%
3	A1	Denmark	4.7	1	16	10.8	6	15	2.1				5%	95%
4	A2	Portugal	4.9	1	15	10.1	7	13	5.5				< 1%	99.09%
5	A4	Belgium	5.9	1	16	9.8	4	13	4.6				6%	94%
6	A3	Italy	6	1	16	9.7	5	14	1.8				9%	91%
7	A1	France	6.9	1	16	8.7	2	11	3.7				11%	89%
8	A3	Germany	8.3	1	16	7.8	3	12	1.2
9	A3	England	8.4	1	16	7.6	2	11	1.6				25%	75%
10	A1	Croatia	10.2	1	16	7.4	4	13	-3.5				43%	57%
11	A4	Poland	10.6	1	16	7	4	13	-5.7				47%	53%
12	A1	Austria	11.7	1	16	6	4	13	-2.3				59%	41%
13	A2	Czechia	12.3	1	16	6	4	10	-4.3				64%	36%
14	A3	Hungary	12.5	1	16	5.7	4	13	-4.6				72%	28%
15	A2	Switzerland	12.5	2	16	5.7	3	9	-5.1				71%	29%
16	A4	Wales	13.8	1	16	4.1	1	10	-3.9				85%	15%
17	B4	Norway	18.7	17	24	9.7	4	12	2.6			6%	94%
18	B1	Ukraine	19	17	31	8.2	3	12	3.4			14%	86%
19	B2	Israel	20.2	17	28	7.2	4	10	1.7			27%	73%
20	B4	Serbia	21.6	17	28	6	3	9	0.8			53%	47%
21	B3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	22.9	17	31	5.9	2	10	-0.2			58%	42%
22	B3	Finland	23.1	17	31	5.3	1	10	0.4			58%	42%
23	B2	Iceland	23.7	17	28	4.4	2	8	-0.6			79%	21%
24	B1	Scotland	23.9	17	31	4.9	0	12	-2.2			74%	26%
25	B2	Albania	24.3	17	28	3.8	1	7	-1			84%	16%
26	B3	Romania	24.3	17	31	5.6	0	9	-1			72%	28%
27	B1	Ireland	25.6	17	31	4.5	0	9	-0.5			88%	12%
28	B3	Montenegro	26.7	17	31	4.7	1	10	-3			89%	11%
29	B4	Sweden	27.6	21	31	1.5	0	6	-3.5			>99.99%	< 1%
30	B1	Armenia	28.7	17	31	3.9	0	9	-7.4			98.4%	1.6%
31	B4	Slovenia	29.8	21	31	3.5	2	6	-6.4			99.98%	< 1%
32	C1	Turkey	32.5	32	40	16.6	9	18	18.5		100%
33	C2	Greece	33.2	32	35	16	12	18	9		100%
34	C4	Georgia	34.1	32	39	13.9	10	16	12.1		100%
35	C3	Slovakia	35	32	45	13.1	6	15	6.1	< 1%	99.84%
36	C4	North Macedonia	37	32	43	10.5	7	13	4.2	< 1%	99.73%
37	C1	Luxembourg	37.4	32	46	10.4	6	15	0.9	2.1%	97.9%
38	C3	Kazakhstan	37.5	32	45	10.1	7	16	1.2	1.1%	98.9%
39	C2	Kosovo	38.3	36	46	9	6	12	0.3	3.3%	96.7%
40	C4	Bulgaria	40.8	36	47	6.4	3	9	-1.4	25%	75%
41	C3	Belarus	41.8	34	47	5.7	2	11	-1.9	53%	47%
42	C2	Northern Ireland	42.2	36	47	4.9	2	8	-1.8	68%	32%
43	C1	Faroe Islands	42.8	34	47	4.9	3	12	-7.9	77%	23%
44	C3	Azerbaijan	43.7	35	47	4	1	10	-5.4	82%	18%
45	C2	Cyprus	44.6	36	47	3.3	2	8	-7.5	95.0%	5.0%
46	C1	Lithuania	44.6	36	47	3.1	0	9	-11.5	94%	6%
47	C4	Gibraltar	46.5	40	47	1.5	1	7	-14.9	99.57%	< 1%
48	D2	Estonia	48.5	48	51	10.8	6	12	6.7	100%
49	D1	Latvia	48.7	48	52	9.7	6	12	6.2	99.66%
50	D2	Malta	50	48	51	6.7	6	9	0.9	100%
51	D1	Moldova	51.2	48	54	4	1	9	-1.9	75%
52	D1	Andorra	52.2	48	54	3.1	1	9	-5.2	22%
53	D2	San Marino	52.9	52	53	0.2	0	3	-7.5
54	D1	Liechtenstein	53.5	49	54	2.7	0	7	-5.5	3.4%

Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	< 1%	10%	89%	99.80%	93%	70%	49%	33%	21%
Belgium	1.5%	13%	86%	99.57%	90%	64%	41%	25%	14%
Germany				100%	79%	54%	35%	21%	12%
England	2.4%	18%	79%	99.19%	88%	59%	36%	21%	11%
Spain	2.1%	14%	84%	99.34%	88%	59%	36%	21%	11%
Italy	3.6%	20%	77%	98.7%	84%	53%	30%	15%	7%
Portugal	3.9%	19%	77%	98.5%	83%	50%	27%	14%	6%
Netherlands	6%	24%	69%	97.3%	77%	43%	21%	9%	3.7%
Denmark	7%	25%	68%	97.2%	77%	42%	21%	9%	3.7%
Switzerland	11%	41%	48%	95%	74%	40%	19%	8%	3.0%
Croatia	16%	40%	44%	91%	64%	29%	11%	3.9%	1.2%
Wales	21%	48%	30%	87%	60%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.0%
Serbia	20%	47%	26%	82%	58%	26%	10%	3.3%	< 1%
Czechia	23%	45%	32%	87%	57%	24%	8%	2.6%	< 1%
Ukraine	26%	49%	23%	85%	57%	23%	8%	2.5%	< 1%
Poland	25%	42%	32%	85%	53%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
Sweden	3.5%	40%	18%	60%	39%	15%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
Norway	39%	46%	14%	76%	43%	14%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	41%	42%	16%	71%	38%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Austria	42%	41%	17%	71%	37%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkey	64%	27%	8%	64%	34%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Scotland	27%	36%	10%	55%	30%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Finland	33%	35%	8%	53%	26%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Greece	73%	22%	4.8%	53%	25%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	22%	29%	7%	42%	20%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovakia	62%	22%	5%	45%	22%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Romania	32%	27%	4.9%	39%	17%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Israel	58%	28%	4.2%	45%	18%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
North Macedonia	31%	21%	4.3%	33%	15%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovenia	2.5%	20%	3.2%	23%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	49%	19%	2.4%	30%	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	85%	10%	1.3%	27%	9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	37%	16%	2.0%	24%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Northern Ireland	1.5%	12%	1.9%	15%	5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	47%	12%	1.2%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montenegro	21%	9%	< 1%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Armenia	8%	8%	< 1%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	15%	6%	< 1%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	2.6%	6%	< 1%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	74%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	71%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Moldova	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	1.4%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Kazakhstan	36%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	3.9%	3.7%	< 1%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	34%	1.6%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%