NL: Norway vs Sweden in Nordic Derby

Group B3 continues to be wide open where Bosnia hosts Finland on Tuesday in a possible group decider. Iceland Israel play an early group final tomorrow in Group B2 and tonight Norway hosts Sweden in a last chance for Sweden to avoid Pot 3 and Norway need a win to keep their advantage against Serbia. 

Important matches for Euro '24 qualifications

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Finland (2.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Finland	44%	51%	61%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	38%	29%	24%

Iceland vs Israel (1%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Iceland	24%	17%	15%
Israel	40%	47%	50%

Norway vs Sweden (0.6%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Norway	75%	72%	65%
Sweden	60%	62%	69%

Romania vs Montenegro (0.5%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Romania	43%	35%	30%
Montenegro	11%	14%	16%

Kazakhstan vs Slovakia (0.3%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Slovakia	37%	43%	48%
Kazakhstan	3.5%	2.1%	1.4%
Georgia	31%	30%	28%
Turkey	66%	65%	63%

Ukraine vs Ireland (0.2%)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Ireland	39%	43%	51%
Ukraine	86%	84%	81%

			Rank			Points
Rank	Group	Country	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	+/-	Pot 5	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1
1	A4	Netherlands	3.5	1	15	11.8	7	16	5				1.5%	98.5%
2	A2	Portugal	3.8	1	15	11.4	7	16	6.4				< 1%	99.38%
3	A1	Denmark	4.8	1	16	10.8	6	15	2.1				5.0%	95.0%
4	A2	Spain	4.9	1	16	10.6	5	14	3.5				3.2%	96.8%
5	A4	Belgium	5.9	1	16	9.8	4	13	4.6				6%	94%
6	A3	Italy	6	1	16	9.7	5	14	1.8				9%	91%
7	A1	France	6.9	1	16	8.7	2	11	3.7				11%	89%
8	A3	Germany	8.3	1	16	7.8	3	12	1.2
9	A3	England	8.4	1	16	7.6	2	11	1.6				24%	76%
10	A1	Croatia	10.1	1	16	7.4	4	13	-3.5				43%	57%
11	A4	Poland	10.5	1	16	7	4	13	-5.7				45%	55%
12	A2	Czechia	11.1	1	16	6.5	4	13	-3.9				53%	47%
13	A1	Austria	11.6	1	16	6	4	13	-2.3				58%	42%
14	A3	Hungary	12.4	1	16	5.7	4	13	-4.6				71%	29%
15	A4	Wales	13.7	1	16	4.1	1	10	-3.9				84%	16%
16	A2	Switzerland	13.9	2	16	4.2	0	9	-5.9				85%	15%
17	B1	Ukraine	18.9	17	31	8.2	3	12	3.4			14%	86%
18	B2	Israel	20.1	17	28	7.2	4	10	1.6			26%	74%
19	B4	Norway	20.2	17	31	8.4	4	12	1.8			25%	75%
20	B4	Serbia	21.4	17	31	6.1	3	10	0.8			46%	54%
21	B3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	22.9	17	31	5.9	2	10	-0.2			58%	42%
22	B3	Finland	23.1	17	31	5.3	1	10	0.4			58%	42%
23	B2	Iceland	23.7	17	28	4.4	2	8	-0.6			79%	21%
24	B1	Scotland	23.9	17	31	4.9	0	12	-2.2			73%	27%
25	B3	Romania	24.3	17	31	5.6	0	9	-1			72%	28%
26	B2	Albania	24.3	17	28	3.8	1	7	-1			84%	16%
27	B1	Ireland	25.6	17	31	4.5	0	9	-0.5			87%	13%
28	B4	Sweden	26.3	17	31	2.7	0	9	-2.6			92%	8%
29	B3	Montenegro	26.8	17	31	4.7	1	10	-3			89%	11%
30	B1	Armenia	28.8	17	31	3.9	0	9	-7.4			98.3%	1.7%
31	B4	Slovenia	29.7	17	31	3.5	1	8	-6.9			98.9%	1.1%
32	C1	Turkey	32.5	32	41	16.6	9	18	18.5		100%
33	C4	Georgia	33.7	32	41	14.8	9	18	12.9		100%
34	C2	Greece	33.7	32	42	15.3	9	18	8.4	< 1%	>99.99%
35	C3	Slovakia	35.1	32	45	13.1	6	15	6.1	< 1%	99.80%
36	C4	North Macedonia	37.3	32	46	10.4	4	13	3.9	1.5%	98.5%
37	C1	Luxembourg	37.5	32	46	10.4	6	15	0.9	2.4%	97.6%
38	C3	Kazakhstan	37.6	32	45	10.1	7	16	1.2	2.5%	97.5%
39	C2	Kosovo	38.1	32	46	9.6	6	15	1	4.1%	95.9%
40	C2	Northern Ireland	41	34	47	6.3	1	10	0	37%	63%
41	C4	Bulgaria	41.1	33	47	6.3	2	11	-2.2	45%	55%
42	C3	Belarus	41.9	33	47	5.7	2	11	-1.9	55%	45%
43	C1	Faroe Islands	42.9	34	47	4.9	3	12	-7.9	79%	21%
44	C3	Azerbaijan	43.7	34	47	4	1	10	-5.4	84%	16%
45	C1	Lithuania	44.6	36	47	3.1	0	9	-11.4	94%	6%
46	C2	Cyprus	45	34	47	2.7	1	10	-9.3	95.3%	4.7%
47	C4	Gibraltar	46.3	35	47	1.6	1	10	-14.6	99.58%	< 1%
48	D2	Estonia	48.5	48	53	10.8	6	12	6.6	>99.99%
49	D1	Latvia	48.7	48	52	9.7	6	12	6.2	99.66%
50	D2	Malta	50	48	53	6.5	3	9	2.8	99.53%
51	D1	Moldova	51.1	48	54	4	1	9	-1.9	75%
52	D1	Andorra	52.2	48	54	3.1	1	9	-5.2	22%
53	D2	San Marino	52.9	48	53	0.4	0	6	-9.4	< 1%
54	D1	Liechtenstein	53.5	49	54	2.7	0	7	-5.5	3.4%

Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	< 1%	10%	89%	99.80%	93%	70%	49%	33%	21%
Belgium	1.5%	13%	86%	99.58%	90%	64%	41%	25%	14%
Germany				100%	79%	54%	35%	21%	12%
England	2.4%	18%	79%	99.18%	88%	59%	36%	21%	11%
Spain	2.1%	15%	83%	99.33%	88%	59%	36%	21%	11%
Italy	3.6%	20%	77%	98.7%	84%	53%	29%	15%	7%
Portugal	4.0%	20%	76%	98.6%	82%	50%	28%	14%	6%
Netherlands	7%	24%	69%	97.3%	77%	43%	21%	9%	3.7%
Denmark	7%	25%	68%	97.1%	77%	42%	21%	9%	3.7%
Switzerland	11%	44%	45%	94%	74%	39%	19%	8%	3.0%
Croatia	16%	40%	44%	91%	64%	29%	11%	4.0%	1.3%
Serbia	19%	47%	26%	83%	58%	26%	10%	3.3%	1.0%
Wales	21%	48%	31%	88%	61%	26%	10%	3.3%	< 1%
Czechia	22%	43%	35%	87%	58%	24%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
Ukraine	25%	49%	23%	85%	57%	23%	8%	2.5%	< 1%
Poland	25%	42%	32%	85%	53%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
Sweden	8%	41%	19%	63%	41%	16%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
Norway	36%	44%	13%	71%	40%	13%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	41%	43%	16%	72%	38%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Austria	42%	41%	17%	71%	37%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkey	64%	27%	8%	64%	35%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Scotland	27%	36%	10%	55%	30%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Finland	33%	34%	8%	53%	26%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Greece	71%	22%	4.9%	51%	24%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovakia	62%	22%	5%	45%	22%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	21%	29%	7%	42%	20%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Romania	32%	27%	5%	39%	17%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Israel	57%	28%	4.3%	46%	18%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
North Macedonia	28%	21%	4.4%	32%	14%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovenia	3.4%	20%	3.2%	24%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	48%	19%	2.5%	30%	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	85%	10%	1.3%	29%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	36%	16%	2.0%	24%	8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Northern Ireland	3.7%	13%	2.0%	16%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	46%	12%	1.2%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montenegro	21%	9%	< 1%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Armenia	8%	8%	< 1%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	22%	6%	< 1%	9%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	3.3%	6%	< 1%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	3.8%	3.6%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kazakhstan	35%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	31%	1.6%	< 1%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	1.5%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Malta	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	71%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	71%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
San Marino	< 1%