NL: Probabilities

The results from NL determines the seeding groups for the Euro Qualifications. The best countries in League A (excluding Germany) are placed in pot 1. The remaining five teams plus the best five teams in League B are placed in pot 2. The remaing ten countries are placed in pot 3 et cetera.

			Rank			Points
Rank	Group	Country	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	+/-	Pot 5	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1
1	A1	France	3.2	1	16	13.1	2	18	8.4				1%	99%
2	A4	Belgium	4.2	1	16	12.1	1	18	6.3				4%	96%
3	A3	England	5.6	1	16	10.8	0	18	4.3				7%	93%
4	A2	Spain	5.6	1	16	10.7	0	18	3.9				9%	91%
5	A3	Italy	6.8	1	16	9.8	0	18	2.6				12%	88%
6	A2	Portugal	7.3	1	16	9.4	0	18	1.7				18%	82%
7	A3	Germany	7.6	1	16	9.1	0	18	1.4
8	A1	Denmark	7.7	1	16	9	0	18	1.1				18%	82%
9	A4	Netherlands	7.7	1	16	9	0	18	1				21%	79%
10	A2	Switzerland	9.2	1	16	7.8	0	18	-0.9				34%	66%
11	A1	Croatia	9.9	1	16	7.2	0	18	-2.1				39%	61%
12	A4	Wales	10.6	1	16	6.7	0	18	-2.9				47%	53%
13	A4	Poland	11.6	1	16	5.7	0	18	-4.5				60%	40%
14	A2	Czechia	11.9	1	16	5.5	0	18	-4.7				65%	35%
15	A1	Austria	13.2	1	16	4.3	0	15	-7.4				79%	21%
16	A3	Hungary	13.8	1	16	3.8	0	15	-8.2				87%	13%
17	B1	Ukraine	20.9	17	31	6.8	0	12	2.2			36%	64%
18	B2	Israel	21.4	17	28	6.4	0	12	1.3			47%	53%
19	B4	Serbia	21.9	17	31	6.3	0	12	1.2			47%	53%
20	B3	Finland	21.9	17	31	6.3	0	12	1.2			46%	54%
21	B2	Albania	22.6	17	28	5.5	0	12	-0			60%	40%
22	B4	Sweden	22.9	17	31	5.7	0	12	0.1			58%	42%
23	B3	Romania	23.2	17	31	5.6	0	12	-0.2			61%	39%
24	B1	Scotland	23.4	17	31	5.3	0	12	-0.6			65%	35%
25	B2	Iceland	23.5	17	28	4.8	0	12	-1.2			71%	29%
26	B1	Ireland	24.5	17	31	4.7	0	12	-1.7			75%	25%
27	B4	Norway	24.7	17	31	4.8	0	12	-1.8			75%	25%
28	B3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	25.2	17	31	4.8	0	12	-2.2			78%	22%
29	B3	Montenegro	27.1	17	31	4.1	0	12	-4.4			90%	10%
30	B4	Slovenia	28	17	31	3.7	0	12	-5.6			94%	6%
31	B1	Armenia	29	17	31	3.2	0	12	-7.5			97%	3%
32	C1	Turkey	33.3	32	45	14.8	3	18	12	< 1%	99.6%
33	C3	Slovakia	34.3	32	47	13.6	2	18	9.3	1%	99%
34	C4	North Macedonia	35.3	32	46	12.7	2	18	8.8	2%	98%
35	C2	Greece	36	32	47	11.7	1	18	5.9	5%	95%
36	C4	Georgia	37.3	32	47	10.6	1	18	4.8	7%	93%
37	C2	Northern Ireland	37.7	32	47	10.1	0	18	3	15%	85%
38	C4	Bulgaria	38.6	32	47	9.4	0	18	2.6	15%	85%
39	C3	Belarus	38.7	32	47	9.1	0	18	1.1	23%	77%
40	C1	Luxembourg	39.9	32	47	8	0	18	-1.1	34%	66%
41	C2	Kosovo	40.3	32	47	7.7	0	18	-1.1	39%	61%
42	C1	Lithuania	41.7	32	47	6.3	0	18	-3.9	58%	42%
43	C3	Kazakhstan	42.2	32	47	5.9	0	18	-4.5	65%	35%
44	C3	Azerbaijan	43	32	47	5.1	0	18	-5.9	74%	26%
45	C1	Faroe Islands	43.3	32	47	4.8	0	18	-6.9	77%	23%
46	C2	Cyprus	44.1	32	47	4.1	0	16	-7.7	85%	15%
47	C4	Gibraltar	46.4	35	47	1.4	0	11	-16.1	99.2%	< 1%
48	D2	Estonia	48.8	48	53	9.1	1	12	7.4	99.5%
49	D1	Latvia	49.5	48	54	7.6	0	12	3.5	90%
50	D2	Malta	49.8	48	53	7.2	0	12	3.4	98%
51	D1	Moldova	51.1	48	54	5.3	0	12	-0.8	63%
52	D1	Liechtenstein	52.4	48	54	3.9	0	12	-4.4	26%
53	D1	Andorra	52.6	48	54	3.8	0	12	-4.8	22%
54	D2	San Marino	52.8	48	53	0.9	0	9	-10.8	3%

Below are the probabilities the different countries reach the Euro 24, via the playoff, as runner-up or group winner and the probabilities they reach the various stages.

Country	Playoff	2nd	1st	Euro	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	< 1%	8%	91%	99.9%	93%	70%	49%	33%	20%
Belgium	1%	12%	86%	99.5%	89%	64%	40%	24%	14%
Germany				100%	79%	54%	35%	21%	12%
England	1%	15%	83%	99.4%	88%	59%	36%	21%	12%
Spain	2%	15%	82%	99.3%	88%	60%	37%	21%	12%
Italy	2%	20%	77%	99%	85%	53%	30%	16%	8%
Portugal	3%	23%	73%	98%	83%	51%	28%	14%	7%
Netherlands	4%	27%	66%	97%	77%	43%	20%	9%	4%
Denmark	4%	27%	66%	97%	77%	42%	21%	9%	4%
Switzerland	5%	33%	58%	96%	75%	40%	19%	8%	3%
Serbia	9%	49%	24%	82%	58%	26%	10%	3%	1%
Croatia	7%	38%	46%	91%	64%	28%	11%	4%	1%
Wales	9%	41%	39%	90%	61%	27%	10%	3%	1%
Ukraine	11%	48%	22%	80%	53%	22%	8%	3%	< 1%
Czechia	9%	45%	31%	86%	57%	24%	8%	3%	< 1%
Sweden	9%	46%	19%	74%	47%	19%	7%	2%	< 1%
Poland	11%	44%	29%	84%	54%	21%	7%	2%	< 1%
Hungary	13%	45%	13%	71%	37%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Norway	7%	38%	12%	57%	32%	10%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Scotland	10%	37%	10%	57%	31%	10%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Austria	14%	42%	14%	69%	36%	10%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkey	26%	28%	7%	61%	33%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Finland	12%	36%	8%	55%	28%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Ireland	7%	32%	7%	45%	22%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovakia	20%	23%	5%	48%	24%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Greece	15%	22%	5%	42%	20%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
North Macedonia	17%	20%	4%	41%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Romania	10%	28%	5%	43%	18%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Israel	11%	26%	4%	40%	15%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovenia	2%	20%	3%	25%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Albania	8%	18%	2%	29%	10%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Northern Ireland	8%	14%	2%	24%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	5%	18%	2%	25%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia	7%	11%	1%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	5%	13%	1%	19%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montenegro	2%	10%	< 1%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria	4%	7%	< 1%	11%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Armenia	< 1%	8%	< 1%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Kosovo	2%	5%	< 1%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus	3%	4%	< 1%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Estonia	1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Luxembourg	1%	2%	< 1%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Latvia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Moldova	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Gibraltar	< 1%			< 1%
Kazakhstan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Azerbaijan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%