PL: Match week 4

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 4 matches, 4.3 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Tottenham: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 1 point in the last 4 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Liverpool: 5 points in the last 4 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Wolves: 2 points in the last 4 matches, 3.0 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.61%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.95%	6%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	51%
League cup winners	100%	77%	69%
Sixth team	93%	65%	3.6%
Seventh team	60%	13%	2.3%
Eighth team	15%	6%	1.4%

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
10	Man City	83.1	+53	< 1%	99.98%	99.93%	99.75%	99.04%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	99.27%
5	Liverpool	76.2	+49	< 1%	99.63%	99.03%	97.4%	93%	21%	< 1%	4.5%	94%
12	Arsenal	69.5	+26	< 1%	95.8%	92%	84%	68%	4.8%	3.9%	19%	73%
10	Tottenham	68.1	+24	< 1%	94%	89%	79%	61%	3.3%	6%	24%	63%
7	Chelsea	65.9	+18	< 1%	90%	82%	69%	47%	1.7%	7%	30%	51%
10	Brighton	58.3	+6	< 1%	59%	43%	26%	13%	< 1%	14%	27%	13%
6	Man United	56.1	+1	< 1%	46%	31%	17%	8%	< 1%	13%	22%	13%
6	Newcastle	53.2	+2	1.8%	32%	19%	10%	4.0%	< 1%	11%	15%	4.0%
4	Crystal Palace	51.4	-2	3.3%	23%	14%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	9%	12%	2.5%
7	Leeds	49.8	-5	4.8%	16%	9%	3.9%	1.4%	< 1%	7%	8%	1.4%
3	West Ham	48.7	-7	6%	13%	7%	3.0%	1.0%	< 1%	6%	20%	1.0%
1	Leicester	46.9	-6	10%	9%	4.8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	6%	< 1%
5	Brentford	46.8	-6	10%	9%	4.5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	< 1%
3	Aston Villa	44.4	-14	17%	4.7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	3.7%	< 1%
2	Wolves	42.5	-14	25%	2.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	2.9%	< 1%
4	Southampton	41.6	-20	30%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	2.1%	< 1%
5	Fulham	40.7	-20	34%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
2	Everton	39.8	-18	38%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.8%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	37.1	-37	56%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
4	Forest	35.8	-30	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Crystal Palace	53%	23%	24%	Brentford
Fulham	35%	24%	41%	Brighton
Southampton	27%	23%	49%	Chelsea
Leeds	54%	22%	23%	Everton
Arsenal	66%	19%	16%	Aston Villa
Man City	86%	9%	4.7%	Forest
Bournemouth	41%	24%	35%	Wolves
West Ham	35%	24%	40%	Tottenham
Liverpool	74%	16%	11%	Newcastle
Leicester	45%	24%	31%	Man United