CL: Predictions of the group stage

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	5%	18%	76%	94%	75%	54%	37%	23%
A	Liverpool	10%	24%	64%	88%	67%	46%	30%	18%
F	Real Madrid	3.6%	17%	79%	95.8%	70%	46%	29%	16%
C	Bayern	16%	29%	53%	82%	56%	36%	21%	11%
E	Chelsea	16%	29%	48%	78%	45%	22%	9%	3.9%
D	Tottenham	14%	25%	55%	79%	45%	22%	9%	3.8%
H	Paris SG	16%	28%	51%	79%	42%	20%	9%	3.6%
A	Ajax	27%	38%	22%	60%	32%	16%	7%	2.9%
B	Atletico	19%	32%	43%	75%	39%	18%	7%	2.8%
C	Barcelona	34%	34%	24%	58%	32%	16%	7%	2.8%
C	Inter	36%	33%	22%	55%	28%	13%	6%	2.3%
B	Porto	21%	33%	38%	71%	33%	14%	5%	2.0%
E	Milan	22%	34%	33%	67%	31%	13%	4.7%	1.7%
G	Sevilla	37%	39%	12%	51%	22%	8%	2.7%	< 1%
F	RB Leipzig	23%	51%	16%	66%	25%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
G	Dortmund	39%	37%	11%	49%	19%	7%	2.3%	< 1%
A	Napoli	37%	26%	11%	37%	15%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
H	Benfica	32%	32%	24%	56%	21%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	32%	32%	23%	55%	20%	7%	2.1%	< 1%
D	Sporting	28%	29%	20%	48%	16%	4.9%	1.3%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	37%	26%	16%	42%	13%	4.0%	1.0%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	35%	23%	13%	36%	11%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Marseille	29%	23%	13%	37%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	29%	23%	13%	36%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	27%	12%	3.5%	16%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	28%	13%	5%	19%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	37%	17%	2.6%	19%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	36%	16%	2.4%	18%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	23%	9%	3.2%	12%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	15%	4.2%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	20%	8%	2.4%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	18%	5%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Liverpool	11.9	(10-14)	3%	10%	24%	64%	88%
0	0	Ajax	9	(7-11)	13%	27%	38%	22%	60%
0	0	Rangers	5.2	(3-7)	57%	27%	12%	3%	16%
0	0	Napoli	7.3	(5-9)	27%	37%	26%	11%	37%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Atletico	10.5	(8-13)	6%	19%	32%	43%	75%
0	0	Leverkusen	7.9	(6-10)	21%	37%	26%	16%	42%
0	0	Porto	10.1	(8-12)	8%	21%	33%	38%	71%
0	0	Brugge	4.9	(3-7)	65%	23%	9%	3%	12%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Bayern	11.5	(10-13)	3%	16%	29%	53%	82%
0	0	Barcelona	9.3	(7-11)	8%	34%	34%	24%	58%
0	0	Inter	9.1	(7-11)	9%	36%	33%	22%	55%
0	0	Viktoria Plzen	3.6	(2-5)	80%	15%	4%	< 1%	5%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Tottenham	10.9	(9-13)	7%	14%	25%	55%	80%
0	0	Frankfurt	7.1	(5-9)	35%	29%	23%	13%	36%
0	0	Sporting	8.1	(6-10)	24%	28%	29%	19%	48%
0	0	Marseille	7.2	(5-9)	34%	29%	23%	13%	37%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Chelsea	10.7	(9-13)	6%	16%	29%	48%	78%
0	0	Salzburg	7.3	(5-9)	29%	35%	23%	13%	36%
0	0	Dinamo Zagreb	5.6	(4-7)	54%	27%	14%	5%	19%
0	0	Milan	9.7	(7-12)	11%	22%	34%	33%	67%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	RB Leipzig	9.1	(7-11)	10%	23%	51%	16%	67%
0	0	Real Madrid	13.5	(12-16)	< 1%	4%	17%	79%	96%
0	0	Celtic	5.6	(4-7)	44%	37%	17%	3%	19%
0	0	Shakhtar	5.5	(4-7)	45%	36%	16%	2%	18%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Man City	13.3	(11-15)	< 1%	5%	18%	76%	94%
0	0	Sevilla	8.5	(6-10)	11%	37%	39%	12%	51%
0	0	Dortmund	8.3	(6-10)	12%	39%	37%	11%	49%
0	0	FC Kobenhavn	3.7	(2-5)	76%	18%	5%	< 1%	6%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
0	0	Juventus	8.9	(7-11)	13%	32%	32%	23%	55%
0	0	Paris SG	11.1	(9-13)	4%	16%	28%	51%	79%
0	0	Benfica	9	(7-11)	13%	32%	32%	24%	56%
0	0	Maccabi Haifa	4.5	(3-6)	70%	20%	8%	2%	10%