NL: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Montenegro

 Tonight the most interesting match is the balkan derby between Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Montenegro. Bosnia & Herzegovina have 42% to qualify for the Euro '24 if they win compared with 27% if they lose. Monenegro have 23% if they win and 13% if they lose, as detailed in table below. The reason is that Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch Pot 2 seeding spot if they win.

In Group A3, England must win in Italy to have a descent chance to grab a top-seed spot. Otherwise Hungary clinch a spot, and Italy clinch a top-seed spot if they beat England.

In Group C4, Georgia and North Macedonia play a group final, in which the winner is guaranteed a playoff spot. 

Important matches for Euro '24 qualifications

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Montenegro (15mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bosnia and Herzegovina	42%	35%	27%
Montenegro	13%	18%	23%

Finland vs Romania (7mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Finland	52%	46%	40%
Romania	28%	29%	36%
Montenegro	15%	18%	19%

Georgia vs North Macedonia (4mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
North Macedonia	31%	34%	40%
Georgia	35%	30%	27%

Important matches for Pot 1 seed group

Italy vs England (731mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
England	< 1%	7%	68%
Italy	100%	92%	61%
Hungary	99.92%	99.93%	76%

Germany vs Hungary (38mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Hungary	90%	100%	100%

Important matches for Pot 2 seed group

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Montenegro (721mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Bosnia and Herzegovina	100%	58%	16%
Montenegro	11%	41%	70%

Finland vs Romania (215mbit)	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Romania	< 1%	< 1%	18%
Finland	37%	23%	5%
Montenegro	19%	40%	46%

			Rank			Points
Rank	Group	Country	Mean	Min	Max	Mean	Min	Max	+/-	Pot 5	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1
1	A4	Netherlands	1.5	1	5	14.3	13	16	6.8					100%
2	A1	Croatia	3.6	1	8	11.5	10	13	0.2					100%
3	A2	Spain	4.2	1	11	11.3	8	14	3.9				< 1%	99.98%
4	A4	Belgium	5.1	1	8	11.5	10	13	4.2					100%
5	A2	Portugal	5.2	1	15	10.1	7	13	5.5				< 1%	99.75%
6	A3	Germany	5.9	2	15	9.2	6	12	3.8
7	A1	Denmark	6.1	2	8	10.1	9	12	1.6					100%
8	A3	Italy	7.9	2	15	8.5	5	11	-0.9				14%	86%
9	A3	Hungary	8	1	15	8.3	7	13	1.5				8%	92%
10	A1	France	10.6	9	15	6.6	5	8	0.4				25%	75%
11	A2	Czechia	12.1	2	16	6	4	10	-4.3				53%	47%
12	A2	Switzerland	12.3	3	16	5.7	3	9	-5.1				57%	43%
13	A3	England	13.1	7	16	5.1	2	8	-4.4				77%	23%
14	A1	Austria	13.1	9	16	5.3	4	7	-2.2				82%	18%
15	A4	Poland	13.7	9	16	4.9	4	7	-7.7				84%	16%
16	A4	Wales	13.8	12	16	2.8	1	4	-3.3				100%
17	B4	Norway	18.5	17	24	9.7	4	12	2.6			7%	93%
18	B2	Israel	19.6	17	24	6.8	5	8	1.7			22%	78%
19	B3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	20.1	17	28	6.8	4	10	1.4			27%	73%
20	B1	Ukraine	21.1	17	30	6.1	3	9	0.3			44%	56%
21	B1	Scotland	21.2	17	28	6.2	3	12	-0.2			42%	58%
22	B4	Serbia	21.6	17	28	6	3	9	0.8			58%	42%
23	B3	Montenegro	23.9	17	30	4.2	1	10	-1.5			70%	30%
24	B2	Albania	24	17	28	3.8	1	7	-1			84%	16%
25	B2	Iceland	24.6	17	28	3.9	3	6	-0.7			87%	13%
26	B3	Finland	24.6	17	31	5.5	1	7	0.7			74%	26%
27	B1	Ireland	25.4	17	31	5	4	7	1			91%	9%
28	B4	Sweden	27.6	22	31	1.5	0	6	-3.5			100%
29	B3	Romania	28.3	20	31	4.5	0	9	-5.2			95.9%	4.1%
30	B4	Slovenia	29.7	21	31	3.5	2	6	-6.4			99.97%	< 1%
31	B1	Armenia	29.9	23	31	3.5	0	7	-9.8			100%
32	C1	Turkey	32.7	32	35	15.4	13	16	15.8		100%
33	C2	Greece	33	32	35	16	12	18	9		100%
34	C4	Georgia	34.1	32	39	13.9	10	16	12.1		100%
35	C3	Kazakhstan	34.4	32	35	14.2	13	16	4.7		100%
36	C4	North Macedonia	36.8	32	43	10.5	7	13	4.2	< 1%	99.38%
37	C1	Luxembourg	37.3	36	39	9.9	8	11	1.8		100%
38	C2	Kosovo	38.3	36	45	9	6	12	0.3	4.3%	95.7%
39	C3	Azerbaijan	38.9	36	43	8.6	7	10	0.3	1.8%	98.2%
40	C3	Slovakia	39.4	36	43	8.3	6	9	0.5	4.1%	95.9%
41	C4	Bulgaria	41	36	47	6.4	3	9	-1.4	30%	70%
42	C2	Northern Ireland	42.2	36	47	4.9	2	8	-1.8	75%	25%
43	C1	Faroe Islands	42.4	40	43	5.4	5	8	-5.8	88%	12%
44	C2	Cyprus	44.4	36	47	3.3	2	8	-7.5	96.4%	3.6%
45	C3	Belarus	44.8	44	47	2.5	2	5	-5.5	100%
46	C1	Lithuania	45.9	44	47	1.9	1	4	-11.8	100%
47	C4	Gibraltar	46.5	40	47	1.5	1	7	-14.9	99.77%	< 1%
48	D2	Estonia	48.2	48	51	10.8	6	12	6.7	100%
49	D1	Latvia	49.1	48	51	7.9	6	9	4.8	100%
50	D1	Moldova	50.2	48	51	7	7	7	0	100%
51	D2	Malta	50.5	48	51	6.7	6	9	0.9	100%
52	D1	Andorra	52.1	52	53	1.9	1	4	-4.8
53	D2	San Marino	52.9	52	53	0.2	0	3	-7.5
54	D1	Liechtenstein	54	54	54	0.7	0	3	-9.1