PL: Match day 6

 

Hot Teams
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 more than expected
Fulham: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Tottenham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Liverpool: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
West Ham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected
Chelsea: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
14	Man City	82.4	+55	< 1%	99.98%	99.94%	99.73%	99.0%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	99.23%
9	Liverpool	75.7	+47	< 1%	99.67%	99.06%	97.3%	93%	21%	< 1%	4.6%	94%
15	Arsenal	69.0	+24	< 1%	95.8%	91%	83%	67%	4.5%	4.3%	19%	72%
14	Tottenham	68.3	+24	< 1%	95%	90%	80%	63%	3.7%	5%	23%	65%
10	Chelsea	65.1	+17	< 1%	89%	80%	65%	43%	1.4%	9%	31%	47%
12	Man United	59.4	+5	< 1%	65%	49%	30%	15%	< 1%	14%	29%	20%
13	Brighton	58.1	+7	< 1%	59%	42%	24%	12%	< 1%	15%	27%	12%
7	Newcastle	52.0	+2	2.5%	26%	15%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	11%	13%	2.8%
6	Crystal Palace	50.6	-2	3.9%	20%	11%	4.8%	1.8%	< 1%	8%	10%	1.8%
9	Brentford	48.2	-3	7%	12%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	6%	< 1%
8	Leeds	47.8	-8	8%	10%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	6%	< 1%
4	West Ham	47.7	-7	8%	11%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	19%	< 1%
1	Leicester	44.3	-10	18%	4.5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	4.4%	< 1%
4	Aston Villa	44.0	-13	19%	4.1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	3.5%	< 1%
6	Wolves	43.4	-13	21%	3.4%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	3.0%	< 1%
7	Southampton	42.6	-18	25%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	2.1%	< 1%
8	Fulham	41.9	-19	28%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%
4	Everton	40.1	-17	37%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.8%	< 1%
7	Bournemouth	38.5	-36	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
4	Forest	33.9	-35	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	86%	42%	10%	< 1%	13%	3.0%	< 1%
Liverpool	65%	22%	3.7%	< 1%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	32%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	23%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	18%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%