in silico soccer: October 2022

Sunday, October 30, 2022

PL: Liverpool coldest team in the league

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.6 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Man United: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 less than expected
Leeds: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Aston Villa: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Wolves: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.58%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.97%	7%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	49%
League cup winners	>99.99%	77%	65%
Sixth team	93%	66%	4.6%
Seventh team	62%	14%	2.4%
Eighth team	16%	6%	1.1%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
29	Man City	85.0	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.94%	99.71%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%
31	Arsenal	74.9	+33	< 1%	99.59%	98.6%	95.8%	89%	11%	1.1%	7%	91%
16	Liverpool	70.1	+39	< 1%	98.2%	95%	87%	73%	2.6%	3.6%	17%	78%
26	Tottenham	68.3	+23	< 1%	96.1%	90%	78%	59%	1.7%	6%	26%	62%
21	Chelsea	66.0	+17	< 1%	92%	82%	64%	42%	< 1%	10%	34%	45%
23	Man United	62.7	+7	< 1%	80%	63%	40%	22%	< 1%	15%	34%	25%
24	Newcastle	58.1	+13	< 1%	57%	35%	18%	8%	< 1%	18%	25%	8%
18	Brighton	55.9	+7	< 1%	41%	23%	11%	4.4%	< 1%	15%	19%	4.4%
16	Crystal Palace	51.3	-4	1.7%	16%	7%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	8%	< 1%
14	West Ham	47.8	-4	4.7%	7%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	20%	< 1%
15	Brentford	45.1	-11	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	3.0%	< 1%
12	Leeds	44.6	-10	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	3.1%	< 1%
11	Leicester	44.5	-6	12%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%	3.7%	< 1%
19	Fulham	43.9	-18	14%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%
12	Aston Villa	42.6	-16	19%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	2.5%	< 1%
14	Everton	42.2	-13	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.7%	< 1%
12	Southampton	40.1	-20	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	1.5%	< 1%
10	Wolves	39.7	-22	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	36.9	-35	57%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Forest	32.8	-39	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	93%	48%	12%	1.0%	16%	3.9%	1.0%
Arsenal	36%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	55%	13%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	23%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leeds	60%	21%	19%	Bournemouth
Forest	37%	24%	39%	Brentford
Wolves	41%	24%	35%	Brighton
Man City	84%	11%	6%	Fulham
Everton	41%	24%	35%	Leicester
Chelsea	50%	23%	27%	Arsenal
Aston Villa	41%	24%	35%	Man United
West Ham	49%	23%	28%	Crystal Palace
Southampton	39%	24%	37%	Newcastle
Tottenham	35%	24%	41%	Liverpool

Thursday, October 27, 2022

ECL: Gent vs Molde in a decider

The most interesting matches in ECL are:

Gent vs Molde in Group F. Gent qualify if they win (39%); otherwise, Molde qualify (61%).

Silkesborg vs Anderlecht in Group B. Anderlecht qualify if they win (38%); othwerise, Silkesborg clinch the spot (62%).

Koeln clinch a spot almost (99%) if they take a point against Slovacko and win against Nice.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
C	Villarreal	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	86%	71%	56%	39%
B	West Ham	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	74%	50%	30%	15%
E	Alkmaar	9%	91%	100%	96.3%	62%	32%	14%	6%
A	Fiorentina	53%	47%	100%	79%	51%	27%	12%	4.7%
	PSV			31%	26%	19%	13%	8%	3.9%
	Union Berlin			32%	27%	19%	12%	7%	3.4%
	Lazio			38%	31%	21%	13%	7%	3.4%
	Roma			25%	22%	15%	10%	6%	3.1%
	Braga			68%	51%	30%	16%	7%	2.9%
D	Nice	33%	34%	66%	53%	33%	17%	7%	2.8%
	Feyenoord			29%	24%	16%	10%	6%	2.7%
D	Koeln	23%	14%	37%	29%	19%	11%	5%	2.3%
	Nantes			77%	54%	29%	13%	5%	1.8%
	Monaco			16%	13%	9%	5%	2.9%	1.4%
	Bodoe Glimt			65%	43%	22%	9%	3.3%	1.1%
F	Molde	61%	< 1%	61%	32%	16%	7%	2.6%	< 1%
H	Basel	39%	49%	89%	66%	30%	11%	3.1%	< 1%
F	Djurgarden	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	41%	13%	3.0%	< 1%
	Crvena Zvezda			17%	12%	7%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%
D	Partizan	36%	46%	81%	60%	24%	8%	2.0%	< 1%
G	Slavia Praha	< 1%	8%	9%	8%	5%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%
	Trabzonspor			67%	39%	14%	5%	1.4%	< 1%
	Razgrad			75%	41%	16%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
G	CFR Cluj	91%	< 1%	91%	34%	14%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Anderlecht	38%	< 1%	38%	17%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sheriff Tiraspol			96.4%	47%	16%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sturm Graz			26%	14%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
	Larnaca			100%	46%	15%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Karabakh Agdam			23%	13%	5%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sivasspor	8%	92%	100%	94%	25%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Gent	39%	< 1%	39%	15%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Beer-Sheva	39%	< 1%	39%	14%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Slovacko	8%	7%	15%	10%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Silkeborg	62%	< 1%	62%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Midtjylland			7%	4.1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Lech	61%	< 1%	61%	17%	4.9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dnipro	91%	9%	100%	30%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Slovan Bratislava	22%	44%	66%	48%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Zuerich			4.1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Omonia			3.6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Istanbulspor	47%	53%	100%	59%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sociedad			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rennes			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Fenerbahce			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dynamo Kyiv			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Betis			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Zalgiris Vilnius	34%	< 1%	34%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Pyunik	4.5%	7%	11%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	HJK Helsinki			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	St Gillis			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Ballkani	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Malmoe			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Man United			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Steaua	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shamrock	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Freiburg			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Olympiakos			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Ferencvaros			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Vaduz	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Apollon Lemesos	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Arsenal			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Hearts	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Austria Wien	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	RFS	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

EL: A couple of do-or-die matches in final week

The most interesting matches in the last round are:

In Group F, a do-or-die when Midtjylland must win (at home) against Sturm Graz to advance to knockout stage; Sturm Graz advance otherwise.

In Group D, Braga need to win (at home) against Malmoe while St Gillis take point (at home) against Union Berlin. Otherwise, Union Berlin take the spot in knockout stage otherwise.

In Group A, PSV need a point (away) against Bodoe Glimt to clinch a spot in knockout stage. Othwerwise, Bodoe Glimt take the spot.

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Arsenal	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	43%	27%	16%
	Barcelona			100%	79%	61%	41%	26%	15%
	Ajax			99.67%	79%	59%	40%	25%	15%
	Sevilla			100%	70%	48%	26%	13%	6%
C	Betis	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	56%	29%	14%	6%
	Atletico			45%	35%	26%	17%	10%	5%
	Tottenham			32%	25%	20%	13%	8%	4.4%
E	Man United	86%	14%	100%	57%	36%	19%	9%	4.2%
E	Sociedad	14%	86%	100%	92%	47%	21%	9%	3.6%
	Juventus			74%	50%	31%	16%	7%	3.3%
G	Freiburg	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	42%	18%	7%	2.6%
B	Rennes	27%	73%	100%	83%	34%	13%	4.7%	1.7%
	Salzburg			74%	45%	24%	11%	4.2%	1.7%
C	Roma	74%	< 1%	74%	33%	19%	9%	4.0%	1.7%
	Milan			19%	14%	10%	6%	3.2%	1.6%
A	PSV	69%	< 1%	69%	31%	18%	9%	3.7%	1.6%
	Leverkusen			55%	34%	20%	9%	3.9%	1.6%
	RB Leipzig			32%	22%	14%	7%	3.4%	1.6%
F	Lazio	17%	44%	61%	51%	22%	9%	3.5%	1.4%
D	Union Berlin	68%	< 1%	68%	28%	16%	7%	2.8%	1.2%
	Frankfurt			51%	30%	16%	7%	2.4%	< 1%
F	Feyenoord	18%	21%	39%	28%	13%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
H	Monaco	68%	< 1%	68%	26%	14%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
	Sporting			10%	7%	3.9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			68%	31%	12%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Fenerbahce	73%	27%	100%	43%	12%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Braga	32%	< 1%	32%	10%	4.3%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Marseille			6%	3.4%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	St Gillis	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	15%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dinamo Zagreb			7%	3.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Ferencvaros	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	15%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Nantes	23%	< 1%	23%	6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa			26%	10%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Bodoe Glimt	31%	< 1%	31%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Crvena Zvezda	12%	< 1%	12%	3.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sturm Graz	19%	31%	50%	34%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Karabakh Agdam	77%	< 1%	77%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	46%	4.4%	50%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Trabzonspor	20%	< 1%	20%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rangers			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Razgrad	26%	< 1%	26%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Olympiakos	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Sheriff Tiraspol	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Liverpool			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Napoli			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Porto			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brugge			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Bayern			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Inter			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Viktoria Plzen			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Chelsea			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Real Madrid			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Celtic			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dortmund			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Paris SG			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Benfica			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Zuerich	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Larnaca	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dynamo Kyiv	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	HJK Helsinki	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Malmoe	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Man City			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

CL: Two do-or-die matches in Group D

The final week will give us two do-or-die matches in Group D. First, Marseille will host Tottenham. Marseille advance to last 16 if they win (32%); Tottenham need a point (68%). Then, Sporting host Frankfurt where Sporting need a point (76%) and Frankfurt must win (24%) to advance to last 16. The other three groups played yesterday are already closed.

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Napoli	15.6	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	13%	87%	100%
5	12	Liverpool	14.3	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	87%	13%	100%
5	3	Ajax	4.6	(3-6)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Rangers	1.2	(0-3)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Brugge	10.7	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	54%	46%	100%
5	9	Porto	10.7	(9-12)	< 1%	< 1%	46%	54%	100%
5	5	Atletico	6.1	(5-8)	54%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	4	Leverkusen	6.1	(5-7)	46%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Bayern	17	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	10	Inter	10.8	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Barcelona	5.9	(5-7)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Viktoria Plzen	0.9	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	8	Tottenham	9.5	(8-11)	< 1%	32%	19%	49%	68%
5	7	Sporting	8.8	(8-10)	14%	10%	46%	30%	76%
5	7	Frankfurt	7.9	(7-8)	25%	51%	10%	14%	24%
5	6	Marseille	7.2	(6-9)	62%	6%	25%	7%	32%

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	82%	59%	40%	25%
A	Liverpool	< 1%	87%	13%	100%	70%	48%	31%	18%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	8%	92%	100%	72%	48%	30%	16%
C	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	70%	44%	26%	14%
E	Chelsea	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	64%	31%	13%	5%
H	Paris SG	< 1%	40%	60%	100%	53%	25%	11%	4.3%
C	Inter	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	47%	22%	9%	3.6%
D	Tottenham	32%	19%	49%	68%	40%	19%	8%	3.1%
B	Porto	< 1%	46%	54%	100%	44%	19%	7%	2.6%
A	Napoli	< 1%	13%	87%	100%	54%	20%	6%	2.1%
E	Milan	19%	81%	< 1%	81%	32%	13%	4.8%	1.7%
G	Dortmund	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	42%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
H	Benfica	< 1%	60%	40%	100%	36%	12%	3.6%	1.1%
F	RB Leipzig	32%	60%	8%	68%	27%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
D	Sporting	10%	46%	30%	76%	25%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
D	Marseille	6%	25%	7%	32%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	74%	19%	< 1%	19%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	51%	10%	14%	24%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	< 1%	54%	46%	100%	16%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	68%	32%	< 1%	32%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Barcelona	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ajax	99.66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Atletico	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

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