CL: Two do-or-die matches in Group D

 The final week will give us two do-or-die matches in Group D. First, Marseille will host Tottenham. Marseille advance to last 16 if they win (32%); Tottenham need a point (68%). Then, Sporting host Frankfurt where Sporting need a point (76%) and Frankfurt must win (24%) to advance to last 16. The other three groups played yesterday are already closed.

 

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Napoli	15.6	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	13%	87%	100%
5	12	Liverpool	14.3	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	87%	13%	100%
5	3	Ajax	4.6	(3-6)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Rangers	1.2	(0-3)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Brugge	10.7	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	54%	46%	100%
5	9	Porto	10.7	(9-12)	< 1%	< 1%	46%	54%	100%
5	5	Atletico	6.1	(5-8)	54%	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	4	Leverkusen	6.1	(5-7)	46%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	15	Bayern	17	(16-18)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	10	Inter	10.8	(10-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	4	Barcelona	5.9	(5-7)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Viktoria Plzen	0.9	(0-1)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	8	Tottenham	9.5	(8-11)	< 1%	32%	19%	49%	68%
5	7	Sporting	8.8	(8-10)	14%	10%	46%	30%	76%
5	7	Frankfurt	7.9	(7-8)	25%	51%	10%	14%	24%
5	6	Marseille	7.2	(6-9)	62%	6%	25%	7%	32%

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	82%	59%	40%	25%
A	Liverpool	< 1%	87%	13%	100%	70%	48%	31%	18%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	8%	92%	100%	72%	48%	30%	16%
C	Bayern	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	70%	44%	26%	14%
E	Chelsea	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	64%	31%	13%	5%
H	Paris SG	< 1%	40%	60%	100%	53%	25%	11%	4.3%
C	Inter	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	47%	22%	9%	3.6%
D	Tottenham	32%	19%	49%	68%	40%	19%	8%	3.1%
B	Porto	< 1%	46%	54%	100%	44%	19%	7%	2.6%
A	Napoli	< 1%	13%	87%	100%	54%	20%	6%	2.1%
E	Milan	19%	81%	< 1%	81%	32%	13%	4.8%	1.7%
G	Dortmund	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	42%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
H	Benfica	< 1%	60%	40%	100%	36%	12%	3.6%	1.1%
F	RB Leipzig	32%	60%	8%	68%	27%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
D	Sporting	10%	46%	30%	76%	25%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
D	Marseille	6%	25%	7%	32%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	74%	19%	< 1%	19%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	51%	10%	14%	24%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	< 1%	54%	46%	100%	16%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	68%	32%	< 1%	32%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Barcelona	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ajax	99.66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Atletico	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%