CL: Final deciding matches in Group E and F.

We have two directly deciding matches in Groups E and F. In Group E, Milan need a point at home against Salzburg. In Group F, Leipzig need a point away against Shakhtar.

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Chelsea	12.3	(11-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	7	Milan	9	(8-10)	< 1%	19%	81%	< 1%	81%
5	6	Salzburg	6.8	(6-7)	7%	74%	19%	< 1%	19%
5	4	Dinamo Zagreb	4.5	(4-5)	93%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	10	Real Madrid	12.6	(13-13)	< 1%	< 1%	8%	92%	100%
5	9	RB Leipzig	10.6	(9-12)	< 1%	32%	60%	8%	68%
5	6	Shakhtar	7.2	(6-9)	< 1%	68%	32%	< 1%	32%
5	2	Celtic	2.3	(2-2)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Man City	13.3	(12-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%
5	8	Dortmund	9.8	(8-11)	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
5	5	Sevilla	5.5	(5-6)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	FC Kobenhavn	3	(2-5)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
5	11	Paris SG	12.3	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	40%	60%	100%
5	11	Benfica	12.7	(11-14)	< 1%	< 1%	60%	40%	100%
5	3	Juventus	4.4	(3-6)	26%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Maccabi Haifa	4.1	(3-6)	74%	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Tonight Group D is the most open and interesting. Tottenham clinch knockout stage if they beat Sporting (at home). Marseille clinch knockout stage if they beat Frankfurt (away) and Tottenham also win. Sporting have 26% if they lose against Tottenham; otherwise 79%.

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	7	Tottenham	10.6	(10-13)	2%	12%	20%	66%	86%
4	6	Marseille	8.3	(7-9)	26%	25%	33%	16%	48%
4	6	Sporting	8.6	(7-9)	21%	32%	31%	16%	46%
4	4	Frankfurt	6.6	(5-8)	51%	30%	17%	3%	19%

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	81%	58%	40%	24%
A	Liverpool	< 1%	79%	20%	99.06%	70%	48%	31%	18%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	8%	92%	100%	71%	47%	29%	16%
C	Bayern	< 1%	6%	94%	100%	68%	43%	26%	14%
E	Chelsea	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	63%	30%	13%	5%
H	Paris SG	< 1%	40%	60%	100%	52%	25%	10%	4.2%
D	Tottenham	12%	20%	66%	86%	50%	24%	10%	3.9%
C	Inter	6%	88%	6%	94%	45%	21%	9%	3.4%
A	Napoli	< 1%	20%	80%	100%	51%	19%	6%	2.0%
E	Milan	19%	81%	< 1%	81%	32%	13%	4.8%	1.8%
B	Porto	29%	47%	21%	69%	28%	12%	4.5%	1.6%
G	Dortmund	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	42%	15%	4.6%	1.5%
H	Benfica	< 1%	60%	40%	100%	37%	13%	3.6%	1.1%
F	RB Leipzig	32%	60%	8%	68%	27%	9%	2.8%	< 1%
B	Atletico	45%	28%	< 1%	28%	12%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
D	Sporting	32%	31%	16%	46%	15%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%
C	Barcelona	93%	6%	< 1%	6%	3.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Marseille	25%	33%	16%	48%	14%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	74%	19%	< 1%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	30%	17%	2.5%	19%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	< 1%	21%	79%	100%	19%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ajax	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	26%	3.3%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	68%	32%	< 1%	32%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%