PL: The Magpies with 13 points in the last five matches.

 

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 6.0 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 more than expected
West Ham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Chelsea: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Man United: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.9 less than expected
Brighton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Tottenham: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.66%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.97%	7%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	50%
League cup winners	>99.99%	78%	67%
Sixth team	93%	66%	4.0%
Seventh team	61%	13%	2.0%
Eighth team	15%	6%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
26	Man City	83.9	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.90%	99.48%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.60%
28	Arsenal	74.3	+29	< 1%	99.54%	98.4%	95.1%	87%	11%	1.3%	9%	89%
16	Liverpool	72.6	+42	< 1%	99.37%	97.9%	94%	84%	7%	1.7%	11%	87%
21	Chelsea	67.3	+20	< 1%	95.0%	88%	74%	51%	1.6%	7%	32%	54%
23	Tottenham	67.2	+23	< 1%	95.1%	88%	74%	51%	1.5%	7%	32%	54%
20	Man United	61.5	+6	< 1%	77%	60%	35%	17%	< 1%	16%	35%	21%
21	Newcastle	56.9	+10	< 1%	53%	31%	15%	6%	< 1%	18%	23%	6%
15	Brighton	54.3	+4	< 1%	36%	19%	8%	2.9%	< 1%	14%	16%	2.9%
13	Crystal Palace	50.2	-4	2.8%	16%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	8%	< 1%
14	West Ham	48.8	-3	3.9%	11%	4.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	20%	< 1%
14	Brentford	45.9	-11	9%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	3.5%	< 1%
11	Leicester	45.3	-6	11%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	4.2%	< 1%
18	Fulham	44.5	-18	13%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	1.8%	< 1%
12	Aston Villa	43.5	-13	17%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	2.8%	< 1%
13	Everton	42.4	-13	21%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.8%	< 1%
9	Leeds	42.0	-13	23%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.7%	< 1%
12	Southampton	40.9	-20	30%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	1.6%	< 1%
9	Wolves	39.7	-22	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.1%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	37.9	-35	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
9	Forest	33.2	-36	78%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	90%	46%	11%	< 1%	15%	3.6%	< 1%
Arsenal	36%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	57%	15%	1.8%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	17%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	21%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	21%	22%	57%	Man City
Newcastle	54%	22%	23%	Aston Villa
Brighton	38%	24%	38%	Chelsea
Brentford	51%	23%	26%	Wolves
Crystal Palace	58%	21%	20%	Southampton
Bournemouth	24%	22%	54%	Tottenham
Fulham	46%	24%	30%	Everton
Liverpool	77%	14%	9%	Leeds
Arsenal	75%	15%	10%	Forest
Man United	54%	22%	24%	West Ham