PL: Big 6 will take the four CL positions (with 95% certainty)

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Chelsea: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.1 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Crystal Palace: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 0.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.0 less than expected
Forest: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Wolves: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected
Liverpool: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.71%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.98%	7%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	51%
League cup winners	>99.99%	78%	68%
Sixth team	93%	66%	3.7%
Seventh team	61%	13%	1.6%
Eighth team	14%	5%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	83.3	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.80%	99.0%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	99.21%
27	Arsenal	75.0	+30	< 1%	99.61%	98.7%	95.3%	86%	13%	1.2%	10%	88%
16	Liverpool	74.8	+44	< 1%	99.72%	99.0%	96.1%	88%	12%	1.0%	9%	90%
23	Tottenham	69.2	+25	< 1%	97.2%	93%	81%	58%	2.8%	5%	30%	60%
20	Chelsea	68.3	+21	< 1%	96.1%	90%	76%	50%	2.1%	6%	34%	53%
19	Man United	61.3	+6	< 1%	77%	58%	30%	13%	< 1%	18%	37%	17%
15	Brighton	54.7	+4	< 1%	40%	20%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	15%	18%	2.5%
18	Newcastle	54.7	+8	< 1%	40%	21%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	16%	18%	2.6%
13	Crystal Palace	51.5	-1	1.7%	22%	10%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	10%	< 1%
11	West Ham	47.8	-4	5%	10%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	20%	< 1%
14	Brentford	46.9	-7	6%	7%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	4.2%	< 1%
9	Leeds	43.9	-11	15%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	3.1%	< 1%
8	Leicester	43.5	-10	16%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.6%	3.7%	< 1%
15	Fulham	42.4	-20	21%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%
9	Aston Villa	42.3	-16	21%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	2.6%	< 1%
9	Wolves	41.2	-18	27%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	2.2%	< 1%
11	Southampton	41.0	-21	28%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	1.6%	< 1%
10	Everton	40.8	-16	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.7%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	38.6	-34	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Forest	30.8	-38	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	87%	43%	10%	< 1%	13%	3.2%	< 1%
Arsenal	37%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	59%	17%	2.4%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	22%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	18%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Forest	13%	18%	69%	Liverpool
Everton	41%	24%	35%	Crystal Palace
Man City	74%	15%	10%	Brighton
Chelsea	59%	21%	20%	Man United
Aston Villa	49%	23%	28%	Brentford
Leeds	58%	21%	21%	Fulham
Wolves	44%	24%	32%	Leicester
Southampton	28%	23%	49%	Arsenal
Tottenham	61%	20%	18%	Newcastle
West Ham	62%	20%	18%	Bournemouth