PL: City losing at Anfield and their league title chances reduced to 70%.

City losing at Anfield and their league title chances reduced to 70%. 

Hot Teams
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 more than expected
Man United: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Tottenham: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Leeds: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Southampton: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Leicester: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Brighton: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.68%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.98%	7%
FA cup winners	99.97%	99.97%	51%
League cup winners	>99.99%	78%	68%
Sixth team	93%	67%	3.5%
Seventh team	61%	13%	1.6%
Eighth team	14%	5%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 68 - 73
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	83.3	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.81%	98.8%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	99.13%
27	Arsenal	75.0	+30	< 1%	99.64%	98.7%	95.5%	85%	13%	1.2%	11%	87%
13	Liverpool	74.2	+45	< 1%	99.63%	98.7%	95.5%	85%	10%	1.2%	11%	87%
23	Tottenham	70.5	+27	< 1%	98.1%	95%	86%	64%	4.3%	4.0%	27%	66%
19	Chelsea	68.9	+21	< 1%	96.6%	92%	79%	52%	2.7%	6%	34%	54%
16	Man United	59.8	+4	< 1%	69%	50%	22%	9%	< 1%	18%	33%	13%
14	Brighton	55.9	+6	< 1%	48%	28%	10%	3.5%	< 1%	17%	22%	3.4%
15	Newcastle	53.6	+7	< 1%	35%	18%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	15%	16%	1.8%
10	Crystal Palace	50.4	-2	2.7%	19%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	9%	< 1%
11	West Ham	48.3	-5	4.5%	11%	4.5%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	21%	< 1%
13	Brentford	47.2	-7	6%	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	4.6%	< 1%
9	Leeds	44.9	-10	12%	4.7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	3.6%	< 1%
9	Aston Villa	43.5	-14	16%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	3.0%	< 1%
5	Leicester	42.3	-12	21%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	3.6%	< 1%
9	Wolves	42.2	-18	22%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	2.4%	< 1%
10	Everton	41.6	-16	24%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	1.9%	< 1%
12	Fulham	40.9	-22	29%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%
13	Bournemouth	40.1	-33	35%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
8	Southampton	39.2	-22	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.6%	< 1%
5	Forest	30.4	-39	87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	86%	42%	10%	< 1%	13%	3.2%	< 1%
Arsenal	37%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	59%	17%	2.2%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	23%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	18%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	2.9%	< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%
Wolves	3.1%	< 1%
Everton	2.1%	< 1%
Fulham	1.1%
Bournemouth	1.3%	< 1%
Southampton	2.6%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brighton	67%	19%	15%	Forest
Crystal Palace	55%	22%	23%	Wolves
Liverpool	75%	15%	10%	West Ham
Newcastle	59%	21%	20%	Everton
Brentford	32%	24%	44%	Chelsea
Bournemouth	44%	24%	32%	Southampton
Man United	40%	24%	36%	Tottenham
Fulham	41%	24%	35%	Aston Villa
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Leeds