CL: Salzburg can clinch a last 16 spot

Napoli, Brugge, Man City, Bayern and Real Madrid have clinched a spot in knockout stage. The following teams can clinch a spot in last 16 during the match week 5:

• Liverpool if they draw (or win) against Ajax; otherwise 97%
• Dortmund if Sevilla draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn and they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 95%
• Sporting if Frankfurt draw against Marseille and they win against Tottenham; otherwise 44%
• Paris SG if they win against Maccabi Haifa; otherwise 90%
• Chelsea if they win against Salzburg; otherwise 87%
• Benfica if they draw (or win) against Juventus and Paris SG draw (or win) against Maccabi Haifa; otherwise 86%
• RB Leipzig if Celtic win against Shakhtar and they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 60%
• Porto if they win against Brugge and Leverkusen draw (or win) against Atletico; otherwise 61%
• Inter if they win against Viktoria Plzen or Bayern win against Barcelona; otherwise 64%
• Marseille if they win against Frankfurt and Tottenham win against Sporting; otherwise 38%
• Tottenham if they win against Sporting; otherwise 63%
• Salzburg if they win against Chelsea and Dinamo Zagreb draw (or win) against Milan; otherwise 37%
  

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	9%	91%	100%	81%	59%	40%	25%
A	Liverpool	< 1%	79%	20%	99.05%	71%	49%	32%	18%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	2.4%	97.6%	100%	72%	48%	30%	16%
C	Bayern	< 1%	6%	94%	100%	69%	44%	26%	14%
E	Chelsea	5%	18%	75%	93%	57%	27%	12%	4.7%
H	Paris SG	2.1%	39%	59%	97.8%	51%	24%	10%	4.2%
D	Tottenham	12%	20%	66%	86%	51%	24%	10%	4.0%
C	Inter	6%	88%	6%	94%	46%	21%	9%	3.5%
A	Napoli	< 1%	20%	80%	100%	51%	19%	6%	2.0%
B	Porto	28%	48%	21%	69%	29%	12%	4.6%	1.7%
G	Dortmund	2.7%	88%	9%	97.3%	42%	15%	4.6%	1.5%
H	Benfica	4.6%	55%	40%	95.3%	36%	12%	3.6%	1.1%
E	Milan	34%	44%	4.5%	48%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.1%
B	Atletico	45%	28%	< 1%	28%	12%	6%	2.3%	< 1%
F	RB Leipzig	34%	63%	2.2%	65%	27%	9%	2.7%	< 1%
D	Sporting	32%	31%	16%	46%	15%	4.7%	1.2%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	40%	31%	17%	48%	15%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%
C	Barcelona	93%	6%	< 1%	6%	3.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Marseille	25%	33%	16%	49%	14%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	30%	17%	2.6%	19%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	69%	4.5%	< 1%	5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	< 1%	21%	79%	100%	19%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Ajax	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	61%	35%	< 1%	35%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	26%	3.3%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	20%	7%	3.6%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	80%	1.1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	24%	1.3%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	18%	1.5%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Napoli	14.5	(13-15)	< 1%	< 1%	20%	80%	100%
4	9	Liverpool	12.7	(12-15)	< 1%	< 1%	79%	20%	99%
4	3	Ajax	5.9	(4-7)	7%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Rangers	2	(0-3)	93%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Brugge	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%	100%
4	6	Porto	9.4	(8-10)	3%	29%	47%	21%	69%
4	4	Atletico	7.2	(6-8)	27%	45%	28%	< 1%	28%
4	3	Leverkusen	5.9	(4-7)	71%	26%	3%	< 1%	3%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	12	Bayern	15.4	(15-16)	< 1%	< 1%	6%	94%	100%
4	7	Inter	10.2	(10-11)	< 1%	6%	88%	6%	94%
4	4	Barcelona	7.3	(6-8)	1%	93%	6%	< 1%	6%
4	0	Viktoria Plzen	1.3	(0-3)	99%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	7	Tottenham	10.6	(10-13)	2%	12%	20%	66%	86%
4	6	Marseille	8.3	(7-9)	26%	25%	33%	16%	48%
4	6	Sporting	8.6	(7-9)	21%	32%	31%	16%	46%
4	4	Frankfurt	6.6	(5-8)	51%	30%	17%	3%	19%

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	7	Chelsea	10.8	(10-13)	2%	5%	18%	75%	93%
4	6	Salzburg	8	(6-9)	12%	40%	31%	17%	48%
4	4	Milan	7.6	(7-10)	18%	34%	44%	4%	48%
4	4	Dinamo Zagreb	5.7	(4-7)	69%	20%	7%	4%	11%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Real Madrid	14.3	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	2%	98%	100%
4	6	RB Leipzig	8.6	(7-10)	< 1%	34%	63%	2%	65%
4	5	Shakhtar	7.2	(6-8)	5%	61%	35%	< 1%	35%
4	1	Celtic	3	(2-4)	95%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	10	Man City	14.1	(13-16)	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%	100%
4	7	Dortmund	9.7	(8-11)	< 1%	3%	88%	9%	97%
4	2	Sevilla	4.9	(5-5)	19%	80%	1%	< 1%	1%
4	2	FC Kobenhavn	3.5	(2-5)	81%	18%	2%	< 1%	2%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
4	8	Paris SG	11.8	(11-14)	< 1%	2%	39%	58%	98%
4	8	Benfica	11.4	(10-12)	< 1%	5%	55%	40%	95%
4	3	Juventus	5.5	(4-7)	26%	69%	5%	< 1%	5%
4	3	Maccabi Haifa	4.5	(3-6)	74%	24%	1%	< 1%	2%