Premier League

 

Hot Teams
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Bournemouth: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Chelsea: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Everton: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Leeds: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 less than expected
Liverpool: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Southampton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 1.9 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.66%
Fifth team	>99.99%	99.98%	7%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	50%
League cup winners	100%	79%	69%
Sixth team	94%	67%	4.1%
Seventh team	62%	14%	2.0%
Eighth team	15%	6%	< 1%

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 72
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
23	Man City	84.4	+60	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.87%	99.31%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.48%
24	Arsenal	73.5	+29	< 1%	99.19%	97.5%	93%	82%	9%	1.9%	12%	85%
10	Liverpool	72.9	+45	< 1%	99.22%	97.7%	93%	82%	8%	1.8%	12%	86%
20	Tottenham	69.8	+27	< 1%	97.2%	93%	83%	64%	3.5%	4.7%	25%	66%
16	Chelsea	67.5	+19	< 1%	94%	87%	72%	48%	1.8%	7%	33%	51%
15	Man United	60.6	+4	< 1%	71%	53%	29%	14%	< 1%	16%	33%	17%
14	Brighton	57.2	+7	< 1%	54%	33%	16%	6%	< 1%	17%	25%	6%
14	Newcastle	53.6	+7	< 1%	33%	18%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	14%	15%	2.5%
9	Crystal Palace	50.5	-2	3.1%	18%	8%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	8%	< 1%
10	West Ham	48.6	-5	4.8%	11%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	20%	< 1%
9	Leeds	46.1	-9	10%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	4.5%	< 1%
10	Brentford	45.7	-9	10%	5%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	4.2%	< 1%
9	Aston Villa	44.7	-12	13%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	3.3%	< 1%
4	Leicester	43.0	-11	20%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	3.8%	< 1%
10	Everton	42.2	-15	23%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.1%	< 1%
11	Fulham	41.6	-22	27%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
6	Wolves	41.1	-18	29%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	2.0%	< 1%
12	Bournemouth	40.2	-33	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	Southampton	39.6	-22	38%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	1.6%	< 1%
5	Forest	31.2	-39	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	90%	47%	12%	1.1%	15%	3.8%	1.1%
Arsenal	34%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	57%	16%	1.9%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	25%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	19%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%
Everton	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	< 1%
Wolves	2.6%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%
Southampton	3.3%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Brentford	43%	24%	33%	Brighton
Leicester	49%	23%	28%	Crystal Palace
Wolves	59%	21%	20%	Forest
Fulham	51%	23%	26%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	70%	17%	13%	Everton
Aston Villa	32%	24%	44%	Chelsea
Leeds	33%	24%	43%	Arsenal
Man United	52%	23%	25%	Newcastle
Southampton	40%	24%	35%	West Ham
Liverpool	47%	24%	29%	Man City