EL: Probabilities after match day 3

 

		Chance in Group		Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	2nd	1st	Last 24	Last 16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
A	Arsenal	18%	79%	97.6%	91%	61%	40%	25%	14%
	Ajax			78%	63%	46%	30%	19%	11%
	Barcelona			64%	51%	38%	25%	16%	9%
C	Betis	3.8%	95.9%	99.73%	97.8%	53%	28%	13%	6%
	Sevilla			74%	53%	34%	18%	9%	4.5%
E	Man United	74%	24%	98.5%	61%	36%	19%	9%	4.3%
	Liverpool			11%	10%	9%	7%	6%	4.1%
	Inter			32%	25%	18%	11%	7%	4.0%
	Atletico			30%	23%	17%	10%	6%	3.4%
	Chelsea			24%	19%	14%	9%	6%	3.3%
E	Sociedad	24%	75%	99.81%	86%	42%	19%	8%	3.3%
	Juventus			74%	51%	30%	15%	7%	3.2%
	Porto			33%	25%	17%	10%	6%	3.0%
G	Freiburg	11%	88%	98.8%	92%	39%	16%	6%	2.4%
	Tottenham			18%	14%	10%	7%	4.1%	2.3%
A	PSV	57%	19%	76%	44%	23%	11%	4.8%	2.1%
	Milan			23%	17%	12%	7%	3.8%	1.9%
H	Monaco	25%	62%	87%	71%	31%	13%	4.7%	1.8%
	RB Leipzig			38%	26%	16%	8%	3.9%	1.8%
F	Feyenoord	35%	43%	78%	57%	27%	11%	4.4%	1.7%
C	Roma	64%	3.3%	68%	32%	17%	8%	3.5%	1.5%
B	Rennes	37%	59%	96.1%	73%	30%	12%	4.1%	1.5%
F	Lazio	34%	42%	76%	55%	25%	10%	3.8%	1.5%
D	Union Berlin	29%	16%	46%	28%	14%	6%	2.5%	< 1%
	Leverkusen			28%	18%	10%	4.5%	1.9%	< 1%
	Frankfurt			43%	26%	13%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
	Salzburg			30%	18%	10%	4.2%	1.7%	< 1%
	Benfica			14%	9%	5%	2.8%	1.3%	< 1%
	Paris SG			4.2%	3.4%	2.4%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
	Sporting			15%	10%	5%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%
D	Braga	41%	27%	68%	40%	14%	4.7%	1.4%	< 1%
	Marseille			24%	14%	7%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%
	Bayern			1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dortmund			6%	4.2%	2.6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Fenerbahce	51%	39%	90%	51%	13%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Rangers			9%	5%	2.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Dinamo Zagreb			23%	12%	4.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Napoli			2.0%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Crvena Zvezda	26%	10%	35%	17%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
	Shakhtar			36%	17%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
	Celtic			26%	12%	4.5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Nantes	25%	1.5%	27%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	St Gillis	29%	57%	86%	61%	10%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
	Real Madrid			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Bodoe Glimt	24%	2.2%	26%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Man City			< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	FC Kobenhavn			20%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Brugge			9%	3.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Karabakh Agdam	62%	11%	73%	20%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Midtjylland	16%	9%	25%	12%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Ferencvaros	32%	24%	56%	28%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Maccabi Haifa			8%	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Dynamo Kyiv	4.5%	< 1%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Trabzonspor	17%	4.8%	22%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
	Viktoria Plzen			3.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Sturm Graz	15%	6%	21%	8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Razgrad	31%	< 1%	32%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Olympiakos	1.9%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Larnaca	8%	1.3%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Malmoe	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Sheriff Tiraspol	1.5%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	HJK Helsinki	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Omonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Zuerich	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%