CL: Match Day 3

 

Group E			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	5	Salzburg	8.3	(6-10)	21%	30%	28%	22%	50%
3	4	Chelsea	9	(7-10)	10%	24%	28%	38%	66%
3	4	Milan	9.2	(8-11)	11%	23%	30%	35%	65%
3	3	Dinamo Zagreb	6.2	(4-7)	58%	23%	14%	6%	20%

Group F			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Real Madrid	15.4	(14-18)	< 1%	< 1%	2%	98%	100%
3	4	Shakhtar	6.9	(5-8)	21%	36%	42%	< 1%	43%
3	3	RB Leipzig	7.2	(6-9)	17%	38%	45%	< 1%	45%
3	1	Celtic	4.2	(3-5)	62%	26%	12%	< 1%	12%

Group G			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Man City	15.5	(14-18)	< 1%	< 1%	8%	92%	100%
3	6	Dortmund	10.4	(9-12)	< 1%	6%	86%	8%	94%
3	1	Sevilla	4.9	(4-7)	20%	74%	5%	< 1%	5%
3	1	FC Kobenhavn	3	(1-4)	79%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group H			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	7	Paris SG	12.8	(11-14)	< 1%	4%	27%	69%	96%
3	7	Benfica	11.2	(10-13)	< 1%	14%	58%	28%	86%
3	3	Juventus	7.1	(6-9)	8%	74%	15%	3%	18%
3	0	Maccabi Haifa	2.6	(1-4)	92%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	8%	92%	99.94%	82%	59%	41%	25%
A	Liverpool	11%	59%	30%	89%	65%	45%	29%	17%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	1.5%	98.4%	99.92%	73%	49%	31%	17%
C	Bayern	1.1%	9%	90%	98.9%	70%	45%	27%	14%
H	Paris SG	4.3%	27%	69%	95.7%	53%	26%	11%	4.4%
D	Tottenham	18%	37%	39%	76%	43%	21%	9%	3.5%
E	Chelsea	24%	28%	38%	66%	39%	19%	8%	3.3%
C	Inter	32%	60%	8%	68%	33%	16%	7%	2.6%
A	Napoli	2.0%	30%	68%	98.0%	48%	18%	6%	2.0%
E	Milan	23%	30%	35%	65%	31%	13%	4.7%	1.7%
B	Atletico	30%	30%	17%	47%	23%	11%	4.2%	1.6%
C	Barcelona	64%	31%	2.2%	33%	18%	9%	3.7%	1.5%
G	Dortmund	6%	86%	8%	94%	40%	15%	4.5%	1.4%
H	Benfica	14%	58%	28%	86%	32%	11%	3.3%	1.0%
B	Porto	33%	24%	11%	35%	15%	6%	2.4%	< 1%
A	Ajax	78%	11%	1.8%	13%	7%	3.3%	1.5%	< 1%
D	Sporting	15%	31%	47%	78%	29%	9%	2.3%	< 1%
F	RB Leipzig	38%	45%	< 1%	45%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	30%	28%	22%	49%	16%	4.6%	1.1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	74%	15%	2.7%	18%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	28%	19%	9%	28%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	43%	19%	8%	27%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	74%	5%	< 1%	5%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Marseille	24%	13%	6%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	9%	27%	63%	91%	18%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	36%	42%	< 1%	43%	8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	23%	14%	6%	20%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	26%	12%	< 1%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%