CL: match day 3

Updated probabilities after match day 3 

Group A			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Napoli	13	(12-15)	< 1%	2%	30%	68%	98%
3	6	Liverpool	11.7	(10-13)	< 1%	11%	59%	30%	89%
3	3	Ajax	7.2	(6-9)	9%	78%	11%	2%	13%
3	0	Rangers	2.8	(1-4)	91%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Brugge	11.2	(10-12)	< 1%	9%	27%	63%	91%
3	3	Porto	7.8	(6-9)	32%	33%	24%	11%	35%
3	3	Leverkusen	7.3	(6-9)	44%	28%	19%	9%	28%
3	3	Atletico	8.5	(7-10)	23%	30%	30%	17%	47%

Group C			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	9	Bayern	14.5	(13-16)	< 1%	1%	9%	90%	99%
3	6	Inter	10.2	(9-12)	< 1%	32%	60%	8%	68%
3	3	Barcelona	8	(6-10)	3%	64%	31%	2%	33%
3	0	Viktoria Plzen	2	(0-3)	97%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group D			Simulated Pts		Probabilities
M	P	Team	Mean	50% CI	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16
3	6	Sporting	10.4	(9-12)	7%	15%	31%	47%	78%
3	4	Tottenham	9.8	(8-11)	6%	18%	37%	39%	76%
3	4	Frankfurt	7.3	(5-8)	30%	43%	19%	8%	27%
3	3	Marseille	6.2	(4-7)	57%	24%	13%	6%	19%

 

Probabilities for teams to reach different rounds

		Chance in Group			Stage-by-stage Probabilities
Group	Team	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 16	Quarter	Semi	Final	Champ
G	Man City	< 1%	4.9%	95%	99.68%	82%	59%	41%	25%
A	Liverpool	11%	59%	30%	89%	66%	46%	30%	17%
F	Real Madrid	< 1%	3.3%	96.4%	99.61%	73%	49%	31%	17%
C	Bayern	1.1%	9%	90%	98.9%	71%	46%	27%	14%
H	Paris SG	4.3%	32%	64%	95.6%	53%	26%	11%	4.4%
D	Tottenham	18%	37%	39%	76%	44%	21%	9%	3.6%
C	Inter	32%	60%	8%	68%	33%	16%	7%	2.6%
E	Chelsea	29%	26%	24%	50%	29%	14%	6%	2.4%
E	Milan	16%	25%	51%	77%	38%	16%	6%	2.1%
A	Napoli	2.0%	30%	68%	98.0%	49%	19%	6%	2.0%
B	Atletico	30%	30%	17%	47%	23%	11%	4.2%	1.7%
C	Barcelona	64%	31%	2.3%	33%	18%	9%	3.7%	1.5%
H	Benfica	11%	54%	35%	89%	34%	12%	3.5%	1.1%
G	Dortmund	31%	59%	4.2%	63%	27%	10%	3.1%	1.0%
B	Porto	33%	24%	11%	35%	15%	6%	2.4%	< 1%
A	Ajax	78%	11%	1.8%	13%	7%	3.4%	1.6%	< 1%
D	Sporting	15%	31%	47%	78%	29%	9%	2.3%	< 1%
G	Sevilla	52%	34%	< 1%	34%	16%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
F	RB Leipzig	36%	33%	< 1%	34%	14%	4.8%	1.4%	< 1%
E	Salzburg	27%	26%	14%	40%	13%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Leverkusen	28%	19%	9%	28%	9%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Juventus	67%	12%	1.7%	14%	4.8%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Frankfurt	43%	19%	8%	27%	8%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Marseille	24%	13%	6%	19%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Dinamo Zagreb	28%	23%	10%	33%	8%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Brugge	9%	27%	63%	91%	18%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Shakhtar	34%	45%	2.7%	47%	9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Celtic	29%	19%	< 1%	19%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	FC Kobenhavn	16%	2.6%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Rangers	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Maccabi Haifa	19%	1.2%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Viktoria Plzen	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%