PL: Forest stuck in the bottom after loss against Leicester

Forest stuck in the bottom after loss against Leicester.

Hot Teams
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 6.4 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Brighton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Arsenal: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Forest: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Liverpool: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
Leicester: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Southampton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Leeds: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 89
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 40

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
20	Man City	84.0	+59	< 1%	>99.99%	99.97%	99.87%	99.35%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	99.51%
10	Liverpool	74.4	+46	< 1%	99.54%	98.6%	95.9%	89%	13%	1.1%	7%	91%
21	Arsenal	71.8	+28	< 1%	98.6%	96.2%	90%	78%	7%	2.6%	14%	81%
17	Tottenham	68.2	+26	< 1%	95.5%	90%	79%	59%	2.5%	6%	27%	61%
13	Chelsea	66.7	+18	< 1%	93%	85%	71%	48%	1.6%	7%	32%	51%
12	Man United	59.0	+3	< 1%	64%	45%	25%	12%	< 1%	16%	30%	16%
14	Brighton	58.6	+8	< 1%	63%	44%	24%	11%	< 1%	17%	29%	11%
11	Newcastle	52.5	+4	1.6%	28%	15%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	12%	13%	2.3%
6	Crystal Palace	49.2	-3	5%	15%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	< 1%
7	West Ham	47.6	-6	7%	10%	4.2%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	19%	< 1%
9	Leeds	47.1	-9	8%	9%	3.8%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	5%	< 1%
10	Brentford	46.6	-6	9%	8%	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	5%	< 1%
8	Aston Villa	45.1	-12	13%	5%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	3.6%	< 1%
4	Leicester	44.5	-10	16%	4.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	4.4%	< 1%
10	Everton	43.5	-14	19%	3.1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	2.6%	< 1%
11	Fulham	42.4	-21	25%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
6	Wolves	41.7	-16	27%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	2.2%	< 1%
7	Southampton	40.0	-20	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.6%	< 1%
9	Bournemouth	38.5	-35	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Forest	31.6	-39	84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Triple	Quadruple
Man City	90%	47%	11%	1.0%	15%	3.7%	1.0%
Liverpool	60%	18%	2.5%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Arsenal	33%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	24%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	19%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Newcastle	5%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leeds	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Aston Villa	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Leicester	6%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Everton	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	< 1%
Wolves	2.6%	< 1%
Southampton	3.3%	< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Chelsea	68%	18%	14%	Wolves
Newcastle	54%	22%	24%	Brentford
Man City	82%	11%	6%	Southampton
Bournemouth	35%	24%	40%	Leicester
Brighton	38%	24%	37%	Tottenham
West Ham	60%	21%	19%	Fulham
Crystal Palace	52%	23%	25%	Leeds
Arsenal	34%	24%	41%	Liverpool
Everton	37%	24%	39%	Man United
Forest	37%	24%	38%	Aston Villa