Group D - Decider between Denmark and Australia

 Australia clinch a spot in the knockout stage if they win against Denmark - or they draw and Tunisia do not beat France. Denmark need to win, which will clinch advancement unless Tunisia beat France, in which case it's more complicated as detailed in table below. Tunisia need to beat France and hope for a good result in the other match as detailed in table below.

Group D

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	2	6	2	4	6	< 1%	99.99%	100%	57%	34%	18%	8%
Australia	2	2	4	-2	3	32%	< 1%	32%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Denmark	2	1	2	-1	1	64%		64%	43%	24%	9%	4.2%
Tunisia	2	0	1	-1	1	3.7%		3.7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Conditions for France

Australia - Denmark
Home	Draw	Away
100%	100%	100%	Fra - Tun
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Australia

Australia - Denmark
Home	Draw	Away
100%	88%	< 1%	Fra - Tun
100%	100%	< 1%	34%	Home
100%	100%	< 1%	34%	Draw
100%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	Away

Conditions for Denmark

Australia - Denmark
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
< 1%	< 1%	93%	95.5%	96.5%	98.6%	99.7%	99.9%	Fra - Tun
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	66%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	66%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	66%	0-1
< 1%	< 1%	50%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	62%	1-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	49%	100%	100%	100%	100%	52%	2-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	43%	0-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	75%	100%	100%	38%	1-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	86%	100%	22%	-3
< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	83%	9%	-4

Conditions for Tunisia

Australia - Denmark
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
< 1%	12%	7%	4.5%	3.5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	Fra - Tun
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	0-1
< 1%	100%	50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	1-2
< 1%	100%	100%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	2-3
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	41%	0-2
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	25%	< 1%	< 1%	47%	1-3
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	14%	< 1%	63%	-3
< 1%	100%	-	100%	-	100%	100%	17%	74%	-4

 

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	19%	10%	< 1%

mutual information: 40.7 mBit

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	18%	12%	< 1%

mutual information: 36.5 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%
Argentina	17%	17%	14%

mutual information: 21.5 mBit

Spain vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	1.0%	3.0%
Spain	9%	9%	7%

mutual information: 6.9 mBit

Iran vs United States

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

mutual information: 6.6 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (27%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (31%) Netherlands (21%) Denmark (18%) Ecuador (7%)
Argentina (55%) Poland (22%) Mexico (15%)
		Argentina (42%) Denmark (31%) Poland (9%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (33%) Argentina (18%) Spain (13%) Netherlands (10%)
Spain (79%) Japan (17%)
		Spain (54%) Croatia (16%) Belgium (11%)
Croatia (39%) Morocco (22%) Belgium (20%) Canada (19%)
				Brazil (47%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (85%)
		Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (26%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (10%) France (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (41%) Netherlands (17%) England (16%) Argentina (8%)
France (100%)
		France (69%) Poland (10%)
Poland (38%) Mexico (26%) Saudi Arabia (21%) Argentina (15%)
						France (22%) Belgium (15%) Portugal (10%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%)
Belgium (71%) Croatia (19%)
		Belgium (48%) Japan (15%) Germany (13%)
Japan (50%) Germany (28%) Spain (14%)
				Belgium (27%) Portugal (19%) Switzerland (11%) Brazil (7%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (35%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%)
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%)