Group B - Iran and USA in decider

 USA advance if they beat Iran. For Iran a draw suffice unless Wales beat England. Wales need to beat England and that Iran and USA draw. England must lose with 4 goals to miss the knockout stage.

Group B

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
England	2	6	2	4	4	28%	72%	99.35%	50%	22%	9%	3.0%
Iran	2	4	6	-2	3	39%	19%	58%	22%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
United States	2	1	1	0	2	27%	9%	36%	13%	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Wales	2	1	3	-2	1	6%	< 1%	7%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Conditions for England

Iran - United States
Home	Draw	Away
99.1%	>99.99%	99.2%	Eng - Wal
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	-2
100%	100%	100%	100%	-3
< 1%	100%	< 1%	24%	-4

Conditions for Iran

Iran - United States
Home	Draw	Away
100%	75%	< 1%	Eng - Wal
100%	100%	< 1%	64%	Home
100%	100%	< 1%	64%	Draw
100%	< 1%	< 1%	40%	Away

Conditions for United States

Iran - United States
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	< 1%	100%	Eng - Wal
< 1%	< 1%	100%	36%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	36%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	36%	Away

Conditions for Wales

Iran - United States
Home	Draw	Away
< 1%	25%	< 1%	Eng - Wal
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	100%	< 1%	24%	-1
< 1%	100%	< 1%	24%	-2
< 1%	100%	< 1%	24%	-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	-4

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	18%	12%	< 1%

mutual information: 35.2 mBit

Spain vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	1.1%	3.0%
Spain	9%	9%	7%

mutual information: 7 mBit

Iran vs United States

Home Win

Draw

Away Win

mutual information: 6.9 mBit

Canada vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%

mutual information: 5.7 mBit

Portugal vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	1.0%	2.0%	3.2%
Portugal	7%	5%	3.6%

mutual information: 5.6 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (26%) Netherlands (22%) Denmark (14%) France (8%)
Argentina (47%) Saudi Arabia (25%) Mexico (14%)
		Argentina (36%) Denmark (24%) France (14%) Saudi Arabia (6%)
Denmark (45%) France (24%) Tunisia (19%)
						Brazil (33%) Argentina (15%) Spain (14%) Netherlands (10%)
Spain (79%) Japan (18%)
		Spain (54%) Croatia (16%) Belgium (11%)
Croatia (39%) Morocco (22%) Belgium (20%) Canada (19%)
				Brazil (47%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (85%)
		Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (27%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (28%) Netherlands (17%) England (16%) Argentina (12%)
France (69%) Denmark (25%)
		France (47%) Argentina (17%) Denmark (16%)
Saudi Arabia (29%) Argentina (24%) Mexico (23%) Poland (23%)
						Belgium (15%) France (15%) Portugal (10%) Netherlands (10%) Argentina (8%)
Belgium (71%) Croatia (19%)
		Belgium (48%) Japan (15%) Germany (13%)
Japan (50%) Germany (28%) Spain (14%)
				Belgium (27%) Portugal (19%) Switzerland (11%) Brazil (7%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (34%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%)
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%)