Group A - Decider between Ecuador and Senegal

 We'll have a deciding game in which Ecuador clinch a spot in the knockout stage if they at least draw against Senegal and Senegal take the spot if they win. Holland can miss the knockout stage if they lose against Qatar as detailed below.         

Group A

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Ecuador	2	3	1	2	4	39%	40%	79%	38%	13%	3.8%	1.0%
Netherlands	2	3	1	2	4	45%	53%	97.8%	70%	40%	20%	10%
Senegal	2	3	3	0	3	16%	8%	24%	7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Qatar	2	1	5	-4	0

Conditions for Ecuador

Qatar - Netherlands
+4	+3	2-0	3-1	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	Away
99%	98%	96%	93%	88%	83%	79%	77%	77%	Ecu - Sen
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	0-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	1-2
-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	2-3
-	100%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	0-2
-	100%	100%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4%	1-3
-	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-3
-	-	-	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-4

Conditions for Netherlands

Qatar - Netherlands
+4	+3	2-0	3-1	1-0	2-1	3-2	Draw	Away
55%	56%	64%	77%	89%	94%	98%	100%	100%	Ecu - Sen
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
-	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	98.8%	0-0
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.0%	1-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95.6%	2-2
-	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	95%	3-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	52%	100%	100%	100%	100%	93%	0-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	48%	100%	100%	100%	89%	1-2
-	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	51%	100%	100%	87%	2-3
-	< 1%	48%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	97.8%	0-2
-	< 1%	< 1%	51%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	96%	1-3
-	54%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	99.3%	-3
-	-	-	-	100%	100%	-	100%	100%	99.8%	-4

Conditions for Senegal

Qatar - Netherlands
+4	+3	2-0	3-1	+1	Draw	Away
46%	45%	40%	30%	23%	23%	23%	Ecu - Sen
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
-	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	0-0
100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.0%	1-1
100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	2-2
-	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	3-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

 

 

 Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	18%	12%	< 1%

mutual information: 35.5 mBit

Spain vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	1.1%	2.9%
Spain	9%	9%	7%

mutual information: 6.7 mBit

Canada vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%

mutual information: 5.8 mBit

Portugal vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	< 1%	2.0%	3.2%
Portugal	7%	5%	3.6%

mutual information: 5.7 mBit

Ecuador vs Senegal	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Ecuador	1.3%	1.3%	< 1%
England	2.5%	2.8%	3.4%

mutual information: 4 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (39%) Ecuador (21%) United States (10%) Wales (10%)
United States (29%) Wales (28%) Iran (24%) England (18%)
				Argentina (26%) Netherlands (22%) Denmark (14%) France (8%)
Argentina (47%) Saudi Arabia (25%) Mexico (14%)
		Argentina (36%) Denmark (24%) France (14%) Saudi Arabia (6%)
Denmark (45%) France (24%) Tunisia (18%)
						Brazil (33%) Argentina (15%) Spain (14%) Netherlands (10%)
Spain (79%) Japan (18%)
		Spain (54%) Croatia (16%) Belgium (11%)
Croatia (39%) Morocco (22%) Belgium (20%) Canada (19%)
				Brazil (47%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (85%)
		Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (27%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%)
England (73%) United States (12%)
		England (38%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (28%) Netherlands (17%) England (17%) Argentina (12%)
France (69%) Denmark (25%)
		France (47%) Argentina (17%) Denmark (16%)
Saudi Arabia (30%) Argentina (24%) Mexico (23%) Poland (23%)
						Belgium (15%) France (15%) Portugal (10%) Netherlands (10%) Argentina (8%)
Belgium (71%) Croatia (19%)
		Belgium (48%) Japan (15%) Germany (13%)
Japan (50%) Germany (28%) Spain (14%)
				Belgium (27%) Portugal (19%) Switzerland (11%) Brazil (7%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (35%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%)
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%)