Group G - Match Day 1

Second round will give us a number of important matches:

Argentina - Mexico

Spain - Germany

Portugal - Uruguay

Canada - Croatia

France Denmark

 

Group G

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Brazil	1	2	0	2	3	14%	85%	98.7%	77%	55%	38%	26%
Switzerland	1	1	0	1	3	49%	13%	62%	30%	14%	6%	2.1%
Cameroon	1	0	1	-1	0	1.8%	< 1%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Serbia	1	0	2	-2	0	35%	1.7%	37%	16%	7%	2.7%	< 1%

Conditions for Brazil

Brazil - Switzerland
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
99.98%	99.3%	95%	92%	87%	80%	Ser - Cam
100%	99.6%	94%	91%	84%	76%	98.7%	Home
100%	99.4%	96%	96%	95%	93%	99.2%	Draw
99.9%	97.5%	95%	92%	89%	84%	98.4%	Away

Conditions for Switzerland

Brazil - Switzerland
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
49%	49%	52%	58%	74%	84%	89%	95%	98%	Ser - Cam
42%	42%	42%	42%	66%	70%	74%	85%	98%	52%	+4
43%	42%	42%	41%	66%	70%	75%	93%	97%	52%	+3
42%	42%	42%	48%	67%	72%	87%	92%	98%	54%	+2
43%	42%	52%	66%	66%	86%	89%	96%	99%	62%	+1
65%	65%	65%	66%	84%	100%	100%	100%	100%	75%	Draw
62%	62%	67%	78%	97%	100%	100%	100%	100%	79%	Away

Conditions for Cameroon

Brazil - Switzerland
Home	Draw	Away
2.4%	< 1%	1.6%	Ser - Cam
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
1.6%	< 1%	3%	1.7%	Draw
11%	6%	5%	9%	-1
22%	6%	9%	16%	-2
30%	5%	11%	22%	-3
37%	6%	10%	27%	-4

Conditions for Serbia

Brazil - Switzerland
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
48%	48%	45%	40%	26%	20%	17%	16%	18%	Ser - Cam
58%	58%	58%	58%	35%	38%	39%	38%	39%	50%	+4
57%	58%	58%	59%	35%	37%	36%	27%	30%	50%	+3
58%	58%	58%	52%	34%	33%	20%	24%	25%	47%	+2
57%	58%	48%	34%	34%	18%	16%	12%	16%	39%	+1
33%	33%	33%	32%	15%	< 1%	1%	1%	3%	24%	Draw
24%	24%	22%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	-1
11%	11%	8%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	-2
3%	3%	3%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	2%	-3
< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	-	-	< 1%	-4

 Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	18%	12%	< 1%

mutual information: 34.6 mBit

Spain vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	1.1%	3.0%
Spain	9%	9%	7%

mutual information: 6.8 mBit

Portugal vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	< 1%	1.9%	3.4%
Portugal	7%	6%	3.6%

mutual information: 6.4 mBit

Canada vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%

mutual information: 5.8 mBit

France vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	2.7%	3.6%	6%
France	9%	9%	6%

mutual information: 5 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (71%) Ecuador (27%)
		Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (14%) United States (9%)
United States (29%) Wales (28%) Iran (24%) England (18%)
				Netherlands (30%) Argentina (25%) Denmark (13%) France (8%)
Argentina (47%) Saudi Arabia (25%) Mexico (14%)
		Argentina (36%) Denmark (25%) France (14%) Saudi Arabia (6%)
Denmark (45%) France (24%) Tunisia (18%)
						Brazil (32%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (14%) Spain (13%)
Spain (79%) Japan (18%)
		Spain (54%) Croatia (16%) Belgium (11%)
Croatia (39%) Morocco (22%) Belgium (20%) Canada (19%)
				Brazil (47%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (85%)
		Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (26%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%)
England (73%) United States (12%)
		England (41%) Ecuador (25%) Netherlands (16%)
Ecuador (56%) Netherlands (24%) Senegal (12%)
				France (29%) England (18%) Argentina (13%) Denmark (9%)
France (69%) Denmark (25%)
		France (47%) Argentina (17%) Denmark (16%)
Saudi Arabia (29%) Argentina (24%) Mexico (23%) Poland (23%)
						France (15%) Belgium (15%) Portugal (10%) Argentina (9%) England (8%)
Belgium (71%) Croatia (19%)
		Belgium (48%) Japan (15%) Germany (14%)
Japan (50%) Germany (28%) Spain (14%)
				Belgium (27%) Portugal (19%) Switzerland (11%) Brazil (7%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (35%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%)
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%)