Group H - Match Day 1

 

Group H

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Portugal	1	3	2	1	3	26%	60%	86%	44%	24%	13%	6%
Uruguay	1	0	0	0	1	41%	27%	68%	26%	12%	5%	2.0%
South Korea	1	0	0	0	1	28%	12%	41%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
Ghana	1	2	3	-1	0	4.4%	< 1%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Conditions for Portugal

Portugal - Uruguay
Home	Draw	Away
100%	82%	70%	Gha - Sou
100%	94%	80%	92%	Home
100%	85%	82%	91%	Draw
100%	79%	64%	84%	Away

Conditions for Uruguay

Portugal - Uruguay
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3
33%	38%	43%	48%	79%	94%	97.4%	98.2%	Gha - Sou
68%	71%	74%	76%	79%	93%	94%	95%	81%	Home
65%	65%	64%	65%	89%	92%	98%	98%	80%	Draw
23%	33%	41%	47%	77%	96.9%	99.6%	99.9%	67%	-1
14%	23%	31%	40%	75%	95%	98.3%	99.8%	62%	-2
7%	14%	21%	29%	75%	94%	97%	99%	57%	-3
4%	7%	12%	19%	74%	94%	95%	97%	53%	-4

Conditions for South Korea

Portugal - Uruguay
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
61%	56%	51%	45%	34%	31%	Gha - Sou
-	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	15%	5%	+4
8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	14%	6%	+3
10%	6%	3%	1%	6%	14%	7%	+2
11%	10%	7%	4%	7%	15%	9%	+1
20%	20%	20%	20%	19%	17%	19%	Draw
77%	67%	59%	53%	37%	38%	47%	-1
86%	77%	69%	60%	51%	40%	55%	-2
93%	86%	79%	71%	51%	41%	60%	-3
96%	93%	88%	81%	51%	42%	64%	-4

Conditions for Ghana

Portugal - Uruguay
Home	Draw	Away
6%	4.8%	3.0%	Gha - Sou
21%	21%	12%	18%	Home
15%	7%	6%	10%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Mexico	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	19%	12%	< 1%

mutual information: 35.7 mBit

Spain vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	1.1%	2.9%
Spain	10%	10%	8%

mutual information: 6.6 mBit

Canada vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%

mutual information: 5.8 mBit

Brazil vs Serbia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Brazil	26%	23%	18%
Serbia	< 1%	1.2%	2.0%
Spain	9%	9%	11%

mutual information: 5.3 mBit

Portugal vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	1.1%	2.1%	3.2%
Portugal	7%	6%	3.9%

mutual information: 5.2 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (71%) Ecuador (27%)
		Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (14%) United States (9%)
United States (29%) Wales (28%) Iran (24%) England (18%)
				Netherlands (30%) Argentina (25%) Denmark (13%) France (8%)
Argentina (47%) Saudi Arabia (25%) Mexico (14%)
		Argentina (36%) Denmark (24%) France (14%) Saudi Arabia (6%)
Denmark (45%) France (24%) Tunisia (18%)
						Brazil (27%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (14%) Spain (14%)
Spain (79%) Japan (18%)
		Spain (54%) Croatia (16%) Belgium (11%)
Croatia (39%) Morocco (22%) Belgium (20%) Canada (19%)
				Brazil (40%) Spain (26%) Uruguay (6%)
Brazil (72%) Switzerland (16%)
		Brazil (56%) Uruguay (13%) Portugal (10%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (25%) Argentina (15%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%)
England (73%) United States (12%)
		England (41%) Ecuador (25%) Netherlands (16%)
Ecuador (56%) Netherlands (24%) Senegal (12%)
				France (29%) England (18%) Argentina (13%) Denmark (9%)
France (69%) Denmark (25%)
		France (47%) Argentina (17%) Denmark (16%)
Saudi Arabia (29%) Argentina (24%) Mexico (23%) Poland (23%)
						France (15%) Belgium (15%) Portugal (10%) Argentina (9%) Brazil (8%)
Belgium (71%) Croatia (19%)
		Belgium (48%) Japan (15%) Germany (13%)
Japan (50%) Germany (28%) Spain (14%)
				Belgium (26%) Portugal (18%) Brazil (11%) Switzerland (9%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (33%) Switzerland (20%) Brazil (15%) Serbia (14%)
Switzerland (44%) Serbia (34%) Brazil (21%)